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Capacity expansion on track; integrated logistics strategy to accelerate growth

* JSW Infrastructure (JSWINFRA) has consistently outperformed major ports in terms of volume, posting growth of ~15%/~9% in FY24/FY25, against major ports’ growth of ~8%/~5%. However, volume growth was muted in 1HFY26, recording only 4% YoY, primarily due to a maintenance shutdown at JSW Steel’s Dolvi plant and subdued performance at the Paradip iron ore terminal. Despite the soft volume growth in 1HFY26, the company’s long-term expansion plans across ports remain on track and are expected to support sustained volume growth going forward.

* In 2QFY26, JSWINFRA signed a 30-year concession agreement with the Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port Authority for the reconstruction and mechanization of berths. With a permissible draft of 7 meters and a planned capacity of 0.45m TEUs (~6.3MTPA), this project aims to strengthen its presence in eastern India’s container trade. Management expects interim operations at the Kolkata Container Terminal to commence by the end of FY26, thereby supporting volume growth.

* JSWINFRA is executing multiple brownfield and greenfield expansion projects, with plans to scale from 177MTPA currently to 400MTPA by FY30. Projects under execution totaled 121.6MTPA, including the Kolkata Container Terminal (6.3MTPA), Tuticorin (7MTPA), and JNPA Liquid Terminal (4.5MTPA), with completion expected across FY26-28. JSWINFRA is undertaking strategic capacity upgrades at Mangalore, Southwest Port, Dharamtar, and Jaigarh, targeting a combined expansion of over 40MTPA. Landmark greenfield projects such as the Keni Port (30MTPA), Jatadhar Port (30MTPA), and a 302km slurry pipeline in Odisha are progressing well, all scheduled for commissioning by FY28-30.

* Alongside ports, JSWINFRA is pursuing an aggressive logistics infrastructure build-out under JSW Ports Logistics, supported by an investment plan of INR90b through FY30. This expansion is expected to deliver revenue of INR80b and EBITDA of INR20b at scale.

* With a balanced east-west coast presence and expanding inland logistics, JSWINFRA is well-placed to benefit from India’s push for multimodal integration and port-led industrial growth. We estimate volume/revenue/EBITDA/APAT CAGR of 15%/24%/26%/23% over FY25-28 and reiterate BUY with a TP of INR360 (based on 17x FY28 EV/EBITDA).

Pursuing capacity expansion while strengthening third-party cargo share

* JSWINFRA continues to deliver resilient performance, supported by a diversified cargo mix, rising third-party share (49% in FY25 vs 25% in FY22), and steady execution of new assets.

* Despite a softer start in 2QFY26, management remains confident of achieving 8- 10% cargo growth for FY26, aided by capacity additions and stronger activity in the second half. Further, JSWINFRA is strategically positioned to capitalize on India’s growing port infrastructure needs, with a goal to expand its port capacity to 400MTPA by FY30 from 177MTPA as of Sept’25. Recent expansions at JNPA, Tuticorin, Mangalore, and PNP ports have already increased its capacity to 177MTPA as of Sept’25.

* On the greenfield side, strategic developments like Keni Port in Karnataka, Jatadhar Port in Odisha, and the Odisha slurry pipeline represent transformative infrastructure plays that can unlock new hinterland connectivity and long-term growth corridors. Execution has consistently remained on track, supported by proven project management capabilities and access to group synergies

* The Indian government’s Maritime India Vision 2030 and long-term goal to quadruple port capacity to 10,000MTPA by 2047 create a favorable environment. JSWINFRA, as a leading private player, is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this growth through expansions and new projects.

Robust logistics business expansion

* In 2QFY26, the logistics segment recorded revenue of INR1.6b, supported by an improved EBITDA margin of ~15%. Navkar reported a strong operational performance, with EXIM volumes rising 22% YoY to 79,000 TEUs and domestic cargo volumes increasing 45% YoY to 0.39m tons.

* In FY26, the logistics business is expected to contribute INR7-8b in revenue and ~INR1b in EBITDA, driven by improved operations at Navkar and increased traction from recently added infrastructure.

* JSWINFRA has outlined an INR90b capex plan by FY30 for its ports logistics business, targeting INR80b revenue and INR20b EBITDA, with an EBITDA margin of 25%. Management expects group volumes to contribute 35-40% of the total logistics segment revenue by FY30.

* The planned INR1.7b investment in Navkar Corporation in FY26 aims to revitalize its operations and integrate the business with JSWINFRA’s logistics expansion plan, targeting an increase in EBITDA to INR1b from INR410m in FY25.

* The allocation of INR6b in FY26 for rakes and Vertical Cargo Terminals (VCTs) will enhance logistics throughput and terminal efficiency. Additionally, exploring acquisition opportunities within the INR15b logistics capex budget signals proactive growth in this segment.

Valuation and view

* FY26 cargo volume growth is expected to remain at ~8-10%, with stronger traction anticipated in 2HFY26. JSWINFRA’s long-term vision includes expanding its port capacity to 400MTPA by FY30 and developing a logistics platform aimed at generating INR80b in revenue and a 25% EBITDA margin. Backed by aggressive yet disciplined capex, customer diversification, and multimodal infrastructure expansion, JSWINFRA remains well-positioned for structural growth across India’s maritime and logistics value chain.

* We expect JSWINFRA to strengthen its market dominance, leading to a 15% volume CAGR over FY25-28. This, along with a sharp rise in logistics revenue, is expected to drive a 24% CAGR in revenue and a 26% CAGR in EBITDA over the same period. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a TP of INR360 (based on 17x FY28 EV/EBITDA).

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