Swastika Investmart Ltd

Published on 25/09/2020 12:02:14 PM

Banknifty (Spot):

Banknifty is underperforming and there is no strong immediate strong support level but 20000-19500 is a critical support zone, below this; we could see a vertical fall towards 18000 level. In the upside 21000-21500 is an immediate supply zone while 20600-20650 will be immediate intraday resistance.

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Swastika Investmart Ltd

Published on 25/09/2020 12:02:01 PM

Technical Outlook:

Nifty (Spot):

The market is in strong selling momentum where Nifty is sitting near its critical support of its 200-DMA of 10761 where we can expect a pullback while rising 100-DMA will be the next important support which is currently placed at 10625 level. If Nifty slips below its 100-DMA then we can expect a move towards the 10000-9900 zone. In the upside 11080 will act as a strong hurdle while 10875-10900 will act as an immediate intraday hurdle.

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GEPL Capital

Published on 25/09/2020 12:00:55 PM

Key Highlights:

* Nifty October Futures ended 327.25 points down @ 10836.20 with a premium of 30.65 points.

* Nifty futures open interest increased by 23.75 lakh shares with October series total open interest stands at 0.80 crore shares.

* Nifty 12500 call has highest OI, whereas 10500 put holds the highest OI and Banknifty 22000 call has highest OI and 20500 put has highest OI.

* Nifty 11000 call saw addition of 7.67 lakh shares in OI, whereas 10600 put saw addition of 6.83 lakh shares In OI.

* India VIX ended 12.01% up @ 23.51 against the previous close of 20.99

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GEPL Capital

Published on 25/09/2020 12:00:37 PM

Key Highlights:

The Nifty continues its downward move for the 5th consecutive day, however major support placed @ 10775 mark….

NIFTY SPOT: 11805.55 (-2.93%)

DYNAMIC PARAMETER: Nifty maintained Lower Top Lower Bottom formation.

TRADING ZONE:

Resistance: 10900 (Intraday Resistnce) / 11015 (Day High)

Support: 10775 (200 Day SMA) / 10700 (Key Support)

BROADER MARKET: OUTPERFORMED MIDCAP 16039 (-2.51%), SMALLCAP 5512 (-2.57%)

AdvanceDecline: 319 / 1503

VIEW: Bearish till below 11302 (3 Day High)

BANKNIFTY SPOT: 20456.85 (-3.41%)

DYNAMIC PARAMETER: Index maintained Lower Top Lower Bottom pattern.

TRADING ZONE:

Resistance: 20750 (Intraday Resistance) / 20955 (Day High)

Support: 20405 (Day Low) / 20200 (Day Low)

VIEW: Bearish till below 21473 (3 Day High)

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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 25/09/2020 11:36:32 AM

Nifty Bank Outlook - (20457)

Looking at yesterday's gap down opening, market seem to have deceived traders on Wednesday by giving a smart recovery in the last hour to defend the 21000 mark on a closing basis for BANKNIFTY. Post the weak opening, index kept grinding lower and in the latter half, it just nosedived to conclude yet another day with a sharp cut over three percent.

Although, BANKNIFTY reclaimed 21000 on Wednesday, we continued with our bearish stance and expected it to be breached soon. In fact, it didn't take much time as we witnessed a gap down opening below this crucial point. At the mid session, there was some hint of a bounce back, but it turned out to be a feeble one. The selling augmented to breach important supports one by one. With yesterday's fall, 20700-21000 has become a sturdy wall and any rebound towards it, is likely to get sold into. On the lower side, soon we expect banking index to slide towards 20200-20000. We continue to remain bearish but we would like to highlight that the market is deeply oversold now and hence, it would not be easy to create short positions at current levels. Momentum traders are advised to stay light and should avoid aggressive bets in either directions as we expect some wild swings to take place on both sides during the day.

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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 25/09/2020 11:36:16 AM

Sensex (36554) / Nifty (10806)

The negative global cues weighed down heavily on our markets yesterday as the Nifty opened gap down and then corrected throughout the day to end with a loss of almost 3 percent.

It was one of the worst expiry day for our markets in the recent past as the indices corrected sharply along with the broader market. There was no respite for any of the index as all the sectors, including the recent out performers took a sharp knock. The index has already been in a corrective phase since the start of this month and Nifty has breached its supports one after another. Nifty has now approached its ‘200 DMA’ around 10760 which is another important support. However, as of now there are no positive signs and hence, we continue with our cautious approach on the markets. There could be some pullback from here as we have approached the ‘200 DMA’ which coincides with some important retracement levels as well. However, markets are likely to face selling pressure on pullback moves and hence, one should avoid any aggressive contra trades. The ‘Dollar Index’ which we had recently highlighted for its breakout has moved higher which too is not good for the equity markets.

The immediate support for Nifty is placed in the range of 10800- 10750 followed by 10670, whereas 11000-11100 will be seen as resistance on pullback moves. Thus, we continue with our advice for traders to stay light and avoid overnight positions.

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ICICI Securities

Published on 25/09/2020 11:16:37 AM

Bank Nifty: 20457

Technical Outlook

* The Bank Nifty witnessed sharp decline to close the expiry session on a weak note down by more than 3 % on Thursday amid weak global cues . The decline was broad based as all the 12 index constituents closed in the red . The Bank Nifty ended the session at 20457 , down by 721 points or 3 . 4 %

* The daily price action formed a sizable bear candle with a lower high-low signalling continuation of the downtrend as contrary to our expectation the index breached support area of 21000 and witnessed sharp decline to close near the low of the session (20404). Only a formation of higher high-low in the daily chart will signal a pause in the current corrective trend. Failure to do so will keep the bias down

* Goining ahead failure to move above the breakdown area of 21000 will keep the bias down and will lead to an extension of the decline towards the major support area of 19700-19500 in the coming weeks.

* The major support for the index is placed in the range of 19700-19500 being the confluence of the following:

* a) The 61.8% retracement of the entire up move since March low of 16116 to August high of 25232 placed around 19600 levels

* b) The previous major consolidation area of June 2020 and the bullish gap area of 5 th June 2020 i s also placed around 19500 levels as can be seen in the adjacent chart

* c) The lower band of the rising channel containing the entire up move since May is also placed around 19700 levels.

* On the higher side the current week high and the recent breakdown area of 22000-22100 will act as a major hurdle for the index

* In the coming session, volatility would continue to remain high on account of the volatile global market. The index is opening on a positive note on the back of positive global cues.

* However, bias continues to remain down as the index is forming lower high-low and has breached the crucial support area of 21000. Hence use pullback towards 20740-20800 for creating intraday short position for the target of 20530 with a stoploss of 20910

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ICICI Securities

Published on 25/09/2020 11:15:41 AM

NSE (Nifty): 10806

Technical Outlook

* Equity benchmarks concluded the September series derivative expiry session on a negative note amid weak global cues. The Nifty plunged 326 points or 2.9% to settle at 10806. The market breadth remained in favour of declines with A/D ratio of 1:5. Sectorally, all major indices ended in the red weighed by IT, metal and financials. 

* The Nifty opened the derivative expiry session with a negative gap (11132-11011) and continued to drift southward throughout the session as intraday pullbacks were short lived. The index formed a sizable bear candle carrying a lower high-low over a sixth consecutive session, as contrary to our expectations the index breached the key support of 11000 and saw acceleration in downward momentum, indicating an extended correction

* The index has corrected over past six sessions in a row which hauled daily stochastic in oversold territory (at 10), indicating possibility of temporary breather can not be ruled out. However, for a meaningful pullback to materialise, index need to form a higher high-low on a sustained basis above 11100 mark. Failure to do so would lead to extended correction towards major support zone of 10500-10600 mark in coming weeks.

* The 11100 would be the key level to watch on the upside as it is confluence of: A) As per change of polarity concept, earlier support of 11100-11000 would now act as key resistance B) 38.2% retracement of ongoing correction (11618-107900) is placed at 11106 C) Thursday’s negative gap is placed in the range of 11132-11011

* Key point to highlight since March is that, index has not corrected for more than 11% (as shown in adjoining chart). In the current scenario, we expect the index to maintain the same rhythm as it will complete 11% correction around 10500 levels as it is confluence of:

* a) Price parity of May decline of 9889-8807 (11%) is placed at 10523

* b) positive gap recorded on 2 nd July is in the range of 10430-10485

* c) 50% retracement of June- August rally (9544-11795),at 10670

* Empirically, since 2009, post sharp rally of more than 25% in the Nifty midcap index, over next 5-6 weeks the average intermediate correction has been to the tune of 12%. In current scenario, over past four weeks as Nifty midcap index has corrected 9% from August high of 17555.

* We expect index to maintain the same rhythm by arresting ongoing correction around 15500 (12% from August high) and endure its relative outperformance against benchmark index Nifty. In the coming session, we expect bias would remain corrective as long as Nifty forms a lower high-low formation. Hence, pullback towards 10938-10964 should be used to create short positions for 10848 target

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ICICI Securities

Published on 25/09/2020 10:59:52 AM

Technical Outlook

Equity benchmarks concluded September series derivative expiry session on a negative note amid weak global cues. The Nifty plunged 326 points or 2.9% to settle at 10806. In the coming session, we expect bias would remain corrective as long as Nifty forms a lower highlow formation. Hence, pullback towards 10938- 10964 should be used to create short positions for 10848 target.

The index has corrected over past six sessions in a row which hauled daily stochastic in oversold territory (at 10), indicating possibility of temporary breather cannot be ruled out. However, for a meaningful pullback to materialise, index need to form a higher high-low on a sustained basis above 11100 mark. Failure to do so would lead to extended correction towards major support zone of 10500-10600 mark.

Key point to highlight since March is that, index has not corrected for more than 11%. In the current scenario, we expect the index to maintain the same rhythm as it will complete 11% correction around 10500 levels.

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ICICI Securities

Published on 25/09/2020 10:59:15 AM

Long liquidation continues amid high volatility…

Rollover Highlights

* Nifty rolls were near 71% vs. 3M average of 76%

* Marketwide rolls were at 93% against the 3M average of 91%

* Highest rollover was seen in Berger Paints, Marico, Colgate, Havells, Pidilite and Ambuja Cement

* Rollover activity was relatively low in Indiabulls Housing Finance, Apollo Tyres, Godrej Properties, Amara Raja Batteries and PVR

* Among index stocks, JSW Steel, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement are seeing high rolls into the next series while Hindustan Unilever, Infosys and TCS are seeing relatively low rollover in October

* The open interest in the Nifty has declined sharply compared to the last couple of months at inception. The October series is starting with open interest close to 8.5 million against 11.5 million shares seen in the last series. Nifty October futures added almost 2.4 million shares during the settlement trade. However, the roll spread has not increased as much as expected and Nifty October futures closed at a premium of almost 25 points

* The Bank Nifty has also seen fresh OI addition in the October series. The new series OI is close to 1.6 million shares, which is relatively higher than the OI seen last month. The roll spread in bank index has remained under pressure suggesting short rollover of positions

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