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ICICI Securities

Published on 23/09/2022 10:38:51 AM

Nifty Bank

Technical Outlook

• The daily price action formed a bear candle with a lower high -low signaling continuation of the consolidation for the sixth consecutive sessions after the recent strong up move .

• Going ahead we expect the index to continue with its last six sessions consolidation and form a higher base after the recent strong up move . we believe dips on account of global volatility should not be construed as negative rather should be used as a buying opportunity for up move towards 41800 levels . Index has strong support around 40000 -39800 levels

• In the weekly time frame after a strong rally of 29 % in just 13 weeks, index has approached overbought territory with a weekly stochastic reading of 79 . Hence, temporary breather cannot be ruled out after the recent strong outperformance which will make the overall trend healthier

• Structurally , the index has witnessed a faster retracement as eight month’s decline (41829 -32990 ) was completely retraced in just two and half months highlighting overall positive bias .

• The index has strong support around 39800 levels as it is the confluence of the 20 days EMA (currently placed at 39860 ) which has acted as strong support in the entire up move of the last two months and the 50 % retracement of the last three weeks up move (37944 -41840 ) In the coming session index is likely to open on a negative note amid weak global cues . We expect the index to continue with its corrective consolidation . Hence after a negative opening use intraday pull back towards 40720 -40800 for creating short position for the target of 40470 , maintain a stoploss at 40910

 

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ICICI Securities

Published on 23/09/2022 10:38:36 AM

Nifty

Technical Outlook

• The Nifty started the weekly expiry session on a negative note on the back of the Fed rate hike. However, supportive efforts from intermediate support of 17500 helped the index to recoup intraday losses only partially as weakness in rupee against US dollar weighed on sentiments, restricting the recovery. As a result, the daily price action formed a high wave candle carrying small real body with shadows on either side, indicating elevated volatility. Continuance of lower high-low indicates a corrective bias. In the process, Nifty midcap, small cap relatively outperformed by gaining over 0.5% each

• Going ahead, we expect prolonging of consolidation in broader range of 18000-17300 ahead of RBI policy and monthly expiry. Rupee movement will also be key monitorable, which could lead to sectoral churn as defensives are attractively priced while rate sensitives may be vulnerable to temporary profit booking after sharp rally recently

• Key point to highlight is that, over past five weeks index has retraced merely 38.2% of preceding five weeks rally (15850-18100) absorbing global volatility, signifying inherent strength and relative outperformance against global peers. We believe, the shallow retracement has helped index to cool off the overbought conditions and ongoing higher base formation would pave way for next up move towards January 2022 high of 18300 by October 2022. Thus, extended breather should not be construed as negative instead dips should be capitalised on to accumulate quality stocks as key support exists around 17300

• The broader market indices are mirroring the benchmark move as both Nifty midcap and small cap indices are forming a higher base after resolving out of 8 months falling channel. The current broader market outperformance is supported by improving inherent strength. As currently 56% stocks of Nifty 500 universe have recorded Golden Cross where 50 days EMA has surpassed above its 200 days EMA, that augurs well for durability of up move going ahead

• Structurally, strong support for the Nifty is placed at 17300 which we do not expect to breach as it is 80% retracement of recent 11 sessions rally (17166-18096) coincided with 50 days EMA placed at 17352

• In the coming session, index is likely to witness a negative opening tracking weak global cues. Formation of lower high- lower low signifies corrective bias. Hence, use intraday pullback towards 17635- 17662 for creating short position for the target of 17551

 

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ICICI Securities

Published on 23/09/2022 10:38:03 AM

Technical Outlook

Equity benchmarks extended losses over second consecutive session tracking weak global cues and Rupee making new lows. The Nifty ended Wednesday's session at 17630, down 89 points or 0.5%. In the coming session, index is likely to witness a negative opening tracking weak global cues. Formation of lower high- lower low signifies corrective bias. Hence, use intraday pullback towards 17635-17662 for creating short position for the target of 17551

Going ahead, we expect prolongation of consolidation in the broader range of 18000- 17300 ahead of RBI Policy and monthly expiry. Rupee movement will also be a key monitorable which could lead to sectoral churn as defensives are attractively priced while rate sensitives could be vulnerable for temporary profit booking after sharp rally recently. Structurally, strong support for the Nifty is placed at 17300 which we do not expect to breach as it is 80% retracement of recent 11 sessions rally (17166-18096) coincided with 50 days EMA placed at 17352

 

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Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt Ltd

Published on 23/09/2022 10:28:19 AM

India::BSE Sensex fell 337 points to close at 59,120 after recouping half of the losses from the day's low, while the Nifty50 declined 89 points to 17,630

Market is expected to open gap down and likely to witness selling pressure during the day.

 

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SEBI Registration number is INH000001766

Angel One

Published on 23/09/2022 10:21:46 AM

Nifty Bank Outlook (40631)

Bank Nifty started around the previous session low and post a modest recovery in the first hour it slipped again to mark an intraday low of 40360. The action was not done yet on the weekly expiry day as we witnessed a wild swing on both sides of trend to eventually end with a loss of 1.39% at 40631.

Yesterday, during the mid-session there was some respite in the broader markets however the banking space remained under pressure and intraday bounce got sold into. On hourly charts, we are witnessing a Symmetrical Triangle breakdown as mentioned in our yesterday's report and momentum somewhat seems to have shifted on the bears side. The prices have still managed to defend the key support of 40300 levels and if broken would activate the Shooting Star bearish pattern seen on the weekly chart. Going ahead, 40300 is a make-or-break level for the near-term trend for the banking space and one needs to closely watch how markets react around the said levels. On the flip side, 41000 - 41250 is the immediate resistance.

 

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Angel One

Published on 23/09/2022 10:21:35 AM

Sensex (59120) / Nifty (17630)

The weakness in the global bourses led to a weak start of our equity market, wherein the benchmark index initiated the day with a gap down. The sell-off further aggravated and dragged the Nifty index towards 17530 odd zone. However, the bulls retaliated from the sacrosanct support and made a modest recovery to pare down the losses. With such hustle in the market, the benchmark index Nifty50 concluded the day in red with a cut of 0.50 percent, a tad above the 17600 zone.

On the technical perspective, the crucial support of the 17500 was firmly safeguarded, implying the resilience of the technical support. However, some tentativeness was seen in our domestic market during the weekly expiry session. And as we advance, any sign of respite from the global bourses could trigger strong momentum from hereon. In terms of technical levels, any breach below the mentioned support could drag the market towards the 17400- 17380 zone, which is likely to be seen as the sheet anchor. At the same time, on the higher end, the 17750-17800 could be seen as immediate resistance, followed by the 17850-17900 zone.

 

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Axis Securities

Published on 23/09/2022 10:18:00 AM

Banknifty

Banknifty opened with a downward gap and traded with extreme volatility on either side to close on a negative note. Banknifty closed at 40631 with a loss of 573 points

On the daily chart the index has formed a small Bearish candle with shadows on either side indicating indecisiveness amongst participants regarding the direction. The index is moving in a Higher Top and Higher Bottom formation on the daily chart indicating a short term up trend. The chart pattern suggests that if Banknifty crosses and sustains above 40800 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 41000-41200 levels. Important support for the day is around 40200 However if index sustains below 40200 then it may witness profit booking which would take the index towards 40200- 40000 levels.. Banknifty is sustaining above its 20, 50, 100 and 200- day SMA which signals bullish sentiments in near term. Banknifty continues to remain in an uptrend in the medium and long term, so buying on dips continues to be our preferred strategy

The daily and weekly strength indicator RSI is moving downwards and is quoting below its reference line indicating negative bias.

The trend deciding level for the day is 40715. If BANK NIFTY trades above this level then we may witness a further rally up to 41075-41515-41870 levels. However, if BANK NIFTY trades below 40715 levels then we may see some profit booking initiating in the market, which may correct up to 40275- 39920-39475 levels.

 

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Axis Securities

Published on 23/09/2022 10:17:47 AM

Nifty

Nifty opened sharply lower with a downward gap and traded with extreme volatility throughout the session to close on a negative note. Nifty closed at 17630 with a loss of 89 points.

On the daily chart the index has formed a small Bearish candle with shadows on either side indicating indecisiveness amongst participants regarding the direction. Index is forming a small ascending triangular pattern. Index is facing a resistance at 18100 level whereas it is holding a lower band of triangle which is currently placed at 17500. The index is moving in a Higher Top and Higher Bottom formation on the daily chart indicating a sustained up trend. The chart pattern suggests that if Nifty crosses and sustains above 17700 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 17800-17900 levels. Important support for the day is around 17500 However if index sustains below 17500 then it may witness profit booking which would take the index towards 17400-17300 levels.. Nifty is trading above 50, 100 and 200 day SMA indicating positive bias in the short to medium term. Nifty continues to remain in an uptrend for the short term, so buying on dips continues to be our preferred strategy.

The daily strength indicator RSI is moving downwards and is quoting below its reference line indicating negative bias.

The trend deciding level for the day is 17630. If NIFTY trades above this level then we may witness a further rally up to 17725-17820-17915 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 17630 levels then we may see some profit booking initiating in the market, which may correct up to 17535-17440-17345 levels.

 

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Axis Securities

Published on 23/09/2022 10:17:22 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

Nifty futures closed at 17648 on a negative note with 7.03% increase in the open interest indicating Short Build Up.

Nifty Futures closed at a premium of 18 points compared to the previous day premium of 13 points.

BankNifty closed at 40698 on negative note with 9.79% increase in open interest indicating Short Build Up.

BankNifty Futures closed at a premium of 67 points compared to the previous day premium of 42 points.

FII's were Sellers in Index Futures to the tune of 2438 and were Buyers in Index Options to the tune of 2361 crores, Buyers in the Stock Futures to the tune of 691 crores. Net Buyers in the derivative segment to the tune of 1149 crores.

India VIX index is at 18.81 v/s 19.43. Nifty ATM call option IV is currently 17.42 whereas Nifty ATM Put option IV is quoting at 18.77

 

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HDFC Securities

Published on 23/09/2022 10:14:45 AM

F&O HIGHLIGHTS

SHORT BUILD UP IS SEEN IN THE NIFTY AND BANKNIFTY FUTURES

GO SHORT IN NIFTY WITH SL OF 17700 LEVELS

* Nifty continued its downward journey for the second day in the row, where it fell by 89 points to close at 17630 levels

* Short build up is seen in the Nifty Futures where Open Interest rose by 10% with Nifty falling by 0.50%.

* Short build up is seen in the Bank Nifty Futures too, where Open Interest rose by 10% with Bank Nifty falling by 1.4%.

* Nifty Open Interest Put Call ratio fell to 0.92 level from 0.95 levels. Amongst the Nifty options (29-Sept Expiry), Call writing is seen at 17700-17800 levels, Indicating Nifty is likely to find strong resistance in the vicinity of 17700 - 17800 levels. On the lower side, an immediate support is seen in the vicinity of 17400-17500 levels where we have seen Put writing .

* Short build up is seen by FIIS’ in the Index Futures segment where they net sold worth Rs 2438 Cr with their Open Interest going up by 29503 contracts

 

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