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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 10/07/2020 11:54:40 AM

Nifty Bank Outlook - (22907)

Since last a week or so, Bank Nifty is back in action and we have been witnessing some interesting moves in it. On Wednesday, we saw complete nosedive towards the fag end to haunt optimists after a good 800-1000 points continuous rally. The way it cracked, ideally the sell off should have extended yesterday also. But with reference to our previous commentary, we didn’t consider it as a trend reversal, rather it was merely a reality check to keep the complacent bulls on their toes.

Yesterday, the session started higher and then banking index was completely reluctant to even move towards Wednesday’s low. Overall it was a range bound session but the bias remained bullish as we saw a good sustained buying in some of the heavyweight constituents. Now for the coming session, 22600-22400 would remained to be a strong support zone; whereas on the higher side, it would be important for banking index to go beyond Wednesday’s high of 23081 in order to negate the ‘Shooting Star’ pattern and then to extend the rally from hereon. Looking at the overall momentum in some marquee names, the possibility of it happening is pretty high.

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Angel Broking Pvt Ltd

Published on 10/07/2020 11:54:26 AM

Sensex (36738) / Nifty (10813)

The index opened on a positive note and traded in a narrow range on the weekly expiry session to end tad above 10800 with gains of about a percent.

Nifty traded within a range in yesterday’s session and thus there is no major change on the chart structure. However, inspite of the consolidation in the index,stock specific momentum from the broader market continued to provide good trading opportunites. For the near term, support for Nifty is placed around 10670 whereas resistances are seen around 10900 and 11000. A move beyond the above mentioned boundaries would then lead to the next leg of trended move and till then, traders are advised to continue to trade with a stock specific approach.

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ICICI Securities

Published on 10/07/2020 11:30:59 AM

Global Bonds

* For a major part of the day, the index consolidated with 10750 acting as a midpoint. Buying in banking, cement and metal led the index to end positive with a decent gain of 1.3%. On the options front, additions were seen in ATM 10800 Call and Put strike

* Outperformance was clearly visible in banking stocks, which led the Bank Nifty to test 23000. State Bank of India was the leader whereas HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and midcap banks also witnessed short covering. Once the index manages to sustain above its major Call base of 23000, a further short covering rally can be seen

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ICICI Securities

Published on 10/07/2020 11:28:10 AM

Bank Nifty: 22907

Technical Outlook

The Bank Nifty closed the weekly expiry session on a strong note up by ~ 1 . 5 % on back of strong global cues . The up move was broad based as 11 out of the 12 index constituents closed in the green, both PSU and private bank index closed higher by more than 1 % . The BANK NIFTY ended the session at 22907 , up by 322 points or 1 . 4 % .

• The daily price action formed a bull candle which remained enclosed inside previous session high -low range signaling lack of follow through to previous session profit booking and continuation of the positive trend

• Going ahead we expect the index to maintain positive bias and head towards 23300 -23500 levels in the coming sessions as it is the rising trendline resistance joining the highs of second half of March (21462 ) and April (21967 ) placed around 23500 levels which also confluence with the price parity of the previous up move of Mar -Apr (16116 to 21967 ) as projected from the low of May (17105 ) signalling upside towards 23300 -23500 levels

• The major support for the Bank Nifty is placed around 21000 levels as it is confluence of the a) rising 50 days EMA (21020) (b) the lower band of the last two weeks consolidation range and (c) 50 % retracement of the current up move (19507 -22674 ) placed at 21100 levels

• India VIX (which gauges market sentiment) extended its losses and settled below 200 days EMA for the first time since February 2020 , indicating dwindling volatility, which signifies continuance of risk -on sentiment and overall positive bias in the market

• In the coming session, the Bank Nifty is expected to open on a subdued note on the back of weak global cues. The bias remain positive above last session’s low (22670 ) . Hence use dips towards 22720 -22770 for creating intraday long position for target of 22980 with a stop loss of 22620 The daily stochastic remain in up trend and is currently placed at a reading of 83 thus supports the continuation of the positive bias in the index in the coming sessions .

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ICICI Securities

Published on 10/07/2020 11:27:58 AM

NSE (Nifty): 10813

Technical Outlook

* Equity benchmarks concluded weekly derivative expiry session on a positive note as Nifty ended the session at four months high at 10813, up 107 points or 1%. The market breadth turned positive with A/D ratio of 1.25:1. Sectorally, barring FMCG, all other indices ended in green led by financials and metal 

• The daily price action formed a bull candle, as Nifty managed to hold past three sessions identical low of 10680 and resolved higher, indicating elevated buying demand

• In coming sessions, we expect the Nifty to head towards our earmarked target of 10900 as bias continues to remain positive current week’s low around 10680 which was held three times in past four sessions. Only a decisive close below 10680 would indicate extended profit booking. Meanwhile, market is expected to turn more stock specific as we enter the Q1FY21 result season. Our earmarked target of 10900 is based on 200 days SMA, placed at 10885.

• Past two weeks 625 points up move helped the Nifty to approach near our earmarked target of 10900, leading daily and weekly stochastic oscillator to haul in overbought territory (currently placed at 85 and 95, respectively). Thus, we advise to stick to quality, as the volatility would remain high in overbought market conditions

• In line with our view, broader market continued to outperform, as Nifty midcap extended its winning streak over a seventh consecutive week supported by improving market breadth as currently ~80% constituents of the Nifty midcap and small cap indices are sustaining above their 100 days SMA compared to last month’s reading of ~40%. The significant improvement in market breadth indicates broader market participation that bodes well for durability of ongoing relative outperformance

• On the weekly chart Nifty maintained a higher high-low, indicating positive bias as per classic Dow theory. This, supported by improving market breadth, signifies buying demand emerging at elevated support base, that makes us confident of maintaining support base at 10500 as it is confluence of a) price parity of last intermediate correction of 358 points (10553-10195) projected from Wednesday’s high 10848 is placed at 10490 b) 61.8% retracement of ongoing up move (10195 – 10848), at 10444 c) positive gap recorded on July 2 is in the range of (10430 -10485)

• In the coming session, we expect Nifty to hold Thursday’s low (10733) and trade with a positive bias. Hence, intraday throwback towards 10740–10772 should be used to create long position for target of 10858

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ICICI Securities

Published on 10/07/2020 11:27:29 AM

Technical Outlook

Equity benchmarks concluded weekly derivative expiry session on a positive note as Nifty ended the session at four months high at 10813, up 107 points or 1%. In the coming session, we expect Nifty to hold Thursday’s low (10733) and trade with a positive bias. Hence, intraday throwback towards 10740– 10772 should be used to create long position for target of 10858.

Going ahead, we expect the index to trade with a positive bias sustaining above current week’s low around 10680 (on a closing basis) and head towards our earmarked target of 10900 in coming sessions as it is confluence of 200 days SMA, placed at 10885. Meanwhile, stock specific action would remain in focus as we enter the Q1FY21 result season. In the process, we believe cyclicals would continue to outperform as catch up activity to be seen in banking, capital goods and metal stocks.

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ICICI Securities

Published on 10/07/2020 11:03:35 AM

Bank Nifty: Positive bias to continue to prevail above 21000

* The Bank Nifty managed to close the June series on a positive note and ended marginally below the monthly highs. Private and PSU banks saw covering, providing a boost to the index. The rupee appreciated sharply from 75.6 levels to 74.95 levels. We feel it will consolidate near these levels. This will provide the required boost to the banking and financials space

* The index started the July series with a discount of almost 100 points whereas the rollover was in line with the expectation. As the series progressed, the discount in the Bank Nifty narrowed marginally, pointing towards short covering

* Huge Put OI additions are seen in 21000 strike Put, which remains the key support area for upsides to continue. Looking at the writing positions in Call, we feel the index could move towards 23000 in coming days

* The price ratio of Bank Nifty/Nifty fell marginally on the back of outperformance in the Nifty, which rallied towards 10600 whereas the Bank Nifty remained flat near 22000. However, we feel the ratio will consolidate near 2.08 levels

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ICICI Securities

Published on 10/07/2020 11:03:18 AM

Nifty: Consolidation expected above 10350 for target of 10750

* The Nifty witnessed good move above the June expiry level of 10280. The index is expected to consolidate above these levels, which may lead to a good move in specific stocks

* The noticeable Put base is currently at the 10300 strike, which also indicates towards noticeable support at these levels. The reducing volatility suggests the option writing trend, which may increase in the coming days. On the higher side, the Call positions are at the 10700 strike

* The non-banking index heavyweights have remained in focus. We believe private banking stocks may perform in patches and may not witness a sharp upward trend. Instead, a gradual move may be on the cards in these stocks

* The volatility index has started a move below 30 levels. This is good for the stability in the market. Sharp swings may not be seen in the index and it should broadly remain above 10300. Also, June and July have remained relatively low volatile months, which is seen even this year so far

* FII flows have remained absent while their outflows have been neutralised by DII inflows. The buying pattern of domestic institutions is encouraging, which suggests the stock specific moves may continue

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Tradebulls Securities (P) Ltd

Published on 10/07/2020 11:02:05 AM

Nifty

Series of Inside Bars & Narrow ranged formations continue as Nifty enters the Make Or Break zone. The index continues to oscillate higher within its upward sloping channel while its recent action also resembles towards a Rising Wedge nearing its termination zone. It has managed to close above its 200 DEMA of 10514 but has not witnessed a strong bull candle formation post the movement above it; the zone is also of major important hurdle area due to the confluence of developing patterns. Technically the index has been scaling higher with narrow ranged candles but the momentum indicators are diverging & indicating lack of strength. Hence its ideal to refrain from leverage longs & maintain a trailing stop strategy. Due to its overbought state fresh shorts are warranted only on a breakdown below 10600 with a follow through move below 10380 for a move towards 10000.

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Enrich Commodities India Pvt.Ltd

Published on 10/07/2020 11:01:25 AM

Technical outlook

Nifty fut daily chart has formed "Rising wedge" pattern. The last few sessions ended up in sideways mode testing near the channel’s resistance line. The market is expected to continue on bullish momentum based on current price action, once breaking above a stiff resistance level holding near 10850. The upside rally could be testing all the way up to 11100-11350 levels in the upcoming sessions. Alternatively, if the market struggles to break the resistance level, then it might revise the trend to bearish/sideways mode. Key support holds near 10630.

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