ICICI Securities

Published on 23/11/2020 12:20:42 PM

Bank Nifty: 29236

Technical Outlook

* The Bank Nifty gained for the third consecutive week up by 2 % on weekly basis on the back of positive global cues with euphoria surrounding higher effectiveness of the two vaccines candidates . The up move was broad based as both PSU and private banking stocks closed with healthy gains . The bank Nifty ended the week at 29236 up by 642 points or 2 . 2 % 

* The weekly price action formed a small bull candle with a long upper shadow, which maintained higher high -low, indicating continuation of positive bias albeit with slowdown in upward momentum after a stupendous rally of more than 26 % in just 13 sessions .

* Goining ahead in the coming weeks we expect index to maintain positive bias and head towards 30000 levels as it is the measuring implication of the entire range breakout (25232 - 20405 =4827 points) added to the breakout area of 25232 (25232 +4827 =30059 ) ) signals upside towards 30059 levels . Volatility is likely to remain high in coming expiry week, however bias remain firmly positive

* We believe the overall structure in the index remain firmly positive . Any breather post the sharp up move of more than 26 % in the last three weeks which has lead the weekly stochastic at overbought territory with a reading of 93 should not be seen as negative instead it should be capitalised as an incremental buying opportunity

* The index has major support around 27400 -27700 levels being the confluence of the 38 . 2 % retracement of the previous major rally 23612 to 29784 placed around 27400 levels and the bullish gap area of 10th November 2020 around 27600 -27700 levels .

* On the higher side the index has hurdle around psychological 30000 levels

* In the coming sessions, the index is opening on a positive note on back of positive global cues . We expect the index to continue with its Friday’s positive momentum . Hence after positive opening use intraday dips towards 29270 -29330 for long position for target of 29540 with a stoploss of 29170 Among the oscillators the weekly stochastic remain in up trend , signalling continuation of the up trend in the coming weeks

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ICICI Securities

Published on 23/11/2020 12:20:21 PM

Broader market to see acceleration of upward momentum…

Technical Outlook

* Equity benchmarks extended gains over a third consecutive week as the Nifty ended the week at 12859, up 0.6%. Broader markets outperformed benchmarks as Nifty midcap, small cap gained 2.8%, 1.6% respectively. Sectorally, BFSI, capital goods, auto and metals led the gains.  

* The weekly price action resulted in a small range bear candle with higher high-low, indicating continuance of positive bias albeit with slowdown in upward momentum after sharp 1400 points rally in just 14 sessions, led the Nifty to overbought readings of weekly stochastics (95). Meanwhile, on expected lines, midcaps and small caps outperformed benchmarks

* Going ahead, we reiterate broader constructive stance on equities with an incremental shift to midcaps and small caps which are expected to outperform Nifty, on relative terms. We expect the Nifty to extend the ongoing up move and head towards 13200 by December, as it is the implicated target of consolidation range (12000- 10800=1200 points) projected from the breakout area of 12000

* Our constructive stance is based on following observations: a) the ongoing rally in Nifty from October lows (1428 points) is now stronger in magnitude than early October rally (1235 points).

* Extending rallies and shallow intermediate corrections is indication of robust price structure. b) the leadership in rally has broadened in terms of incremental sectoral rotation into cyclicals which were lagging earlier and now catching up.

* Further, rally is propelled by stocks from grade A&B that indicates durability of ongoing up trend, c) We expect, broader markets to maintain their catch up activity by relatively outperforming the benchmark as both, Nifty midcap and small cap indices have resolved out of their three year falling trend line, indicating conclusion of multiyear corrective phase.

* This structural shift has been accompanied by significant jump in the market breadth, as currently average 87% components of Nifty midcap and small cap indices are trading above 200 days SMA compared to last week’s reading of 79%

* Structurally, formation of a higher high-low on a larger degree charts (weekly and monthly) corroborated by improving market breadth makes us confident to upgrade support base at 12500 as it is confluence of: a) 38% retracement of current up move (11535- 12969), at 12409 b) November 10 positive gap (12461-12475

* For the coming session, we expect the Nifty to sustain above 12900 after a strong opening and head towards 13000 levels aided by firm global cues. Hence, after a positive opening, intraday dip towards 12885-12910 should be used to create long position for target of 12998

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ICICI Securities

Published on 23/11/2020 12:19:43 PM

Bank Nifty: Target for week at 30000 levels…

* After a sharp move for a couple of weeks, the momentum in the banking space was relatively low. However, it still managed to gain almost 1000 points. Leader among the PSU bank SBI performed well whereas supportive buying was seen across private banks where Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank were major gainer

* The overall momentum is quite strong on the back of huge inflows from FIIs for the month along with an appreciating rupee. Due to this, no major declines were observed in the Bank Nifty

* Highest Call base is placed at the 30000 strike, which should be seen as a target for the week. Open interest in Put is distributed in most ATM strikes. Highest Put base for the week is placed at 28500, which was also the support last week from where major buying was seen

* IVs slipped below 20% due to writing in OTM Puts. We feel the ongoing up-trend in the index would continue. Once we manages to close above highest Call base of 30000, more upsides could be seen

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ICICI Securities

Published on 23/11/2020 12:19:25 PM

Positive bias to continue above 12500…

* The Nifty largely consolidated near life-time highs amid high volatility and witnessed some selling pressure from its highest Call base of 13000 strike. The index closed with marginal gains but major movement was seen among midcap and small cap indices, which gained close to 2% each during the week. Fresh cases of Covid-19 seen across the globe have halted the ongoing momentum. Most global indices retraced marginally last week

* At the same time, FII flows remained buoyant in the Indian markets while the net figure for November is more than | 40000 crore. As an result, the Nifty moved to lifetime highs. Going ahead, we expect the momentum flow to witness some pause, which may result in index consolidation in the short-term

* In the options space, significant writing was seen at OTM Call and Put strikes with highest Call OI at the 13000 Call strike. ATM 12800 Put now holds one of the highest open interest making it an immediate support in the near term, However, If it breaks 12800 then the next crucial support would be at 12500, which is the VWAP for the current series

* Sectorally, action was seen in metal, NBFC, select FMCG and auto stocks whereas profit taking was seen in energy, pharma stocks

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ICICI Securities

Published on 23/11/2020 12:18:44 PM

Technical Outlook

Equity benchmarks extended gains over third consecutive week as Nifty settled the week at 12859, up 0.6%. Broader market outperformed benchmarks as Nifty Midcap and small cap gained 2.8% and 1.6% respectively.

In the coming session, we expect Nifty to sustain above 12900 after a strong opening and head towards 13000 levels aided by firm global cues. Hence, after a positive opening, intraday dip towards 12885- 12910 should be used to create long position for target of 12998.

Going ahead, we reiterate broader constructive stance on equities with an incremental shift to Midcaps and small caps which are expected to outperform Nifty, on relative terms. We expect Nifty to extend the ongoing up move and head towards 13200 by December, as it is the implicated target of consolidation range (12000-10800=1200 points) projected from the breakout area of 12000, signalling upside towards 13200 levels.

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HDFC Securities

Published on 23/11/2020 12:09:56 PM

Be Bullish With The Stoploss Of 12800 Level In Nifty - HDFC Securities

F&O HIGHLIGHTS

MARGINAL LONG BUILD UP WAS SEEN IN THE NIFTY

* Markets ended a volatile session with modest gains on Friday. A recovery in global stock markets supported buying in domestic shares. The Nifty managed to close above the 12,850 mark as banks and IT shares rallied. Pharma shares were under pressure. Nifty finally closed up by 0.68% at 12856.05 level.

* After opening higher at 12,813.40, the Nifty reversed trend and hit the day's low of 12,730.25 in mid-morning trade. The index hovered in a range near the flat line till afternoon trade and advanced sharply in mid-afternoon trade to hit the day's high of 12,892.45. On Friday Nifty premium narrowed 9.55 points from 21.80 points.

* Marginal Long build up was seen in Nifty Futures’ where Open Interest increased by just 0.66% with Nifty rising by 0.68%.

* Short covering was seen in the Bank Nifty Futures, where we have seen 10.89% fall in the Open Interest with Bank Nifty rising by 1.10%.

* Nifty Open Interest Put Call ratio increased to 1.57 levels from 1.47 levels. Amongst the Nifty options (26 Nov Expiry), Call writing was seen 13000 - 13200 levels, Indicating 13000 level will act as a strong resistance going forward (near strike price).

On the lower side, support is seen around 12800 levels where we have seen addition in Puts.

To Sum It Up, Marginal long build up in the Nifty and short covering in the Bank Nifty Futures Indicates one should remain bullish in the market by keeping stop loss of 12800 level in Nifty.

In Bank Nifty futures traders can keep a stop loss at 28500 level where maximum Put has written by traders.

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Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 23/11/2020 11:34:50 AM

Nifty Outlook:

Failure to break beyond 12730 last week suggest that traders are back to risk-on mode. This puts 13200 as the near term objective, with intraday downside marker placed at 12860.

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Geojit Financial Services Ltd.

Published on 23/11/2020 11:34:02 AM

F&O OUTLOOK

Nifty outlook

While 13000 continued to hold the largest number of call OI, the highest OI build up was seen at 13200, which attracted shorts, while 12800, which attracted the next highest OI, saw long build up. Along puts, 12000 continued to hold the largest number of OI, trading activity was the highest at 12800, which also saw the highest O build up, which was mostly short build up, with only 4 days to expire. In the weekly, the near OTM calls like 12900, 13200, and 13100 found long build up.

Meanwhile, FII focus was along puts, raising their positions in put longs and calls by 11 and 16.4%. Their proportion of longs in index future segment remained near 70%, as a 4.5% cut in shorts were followed b a 4.3% increase in longs.

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Tradebulls Securities (P) Ltd

Published on 23/11/2020 11:28:47 AM

Nifty

Nifty has been trending well in confluence with its 5 DEMA & is yet to close below the same. Both trend strength indicators are in the overbought state but there are no signs of any developing divergence. The immediate headwind for the index rests near the ‘Flag Pattern’ target zone placed around 13090. 13000-13090 remains the key zone for the bullish momentum to resume again towards 13570 while on the flipside supports are clearly place at 12680 & 12510 respectively incase of a breach below 12730. In case the counter trend develops with signs of fresh Impulse then lower band could stretch further towards 12380-12050 . Expiry week would be followed by a long weekend & truncated week hence it’s likely that traders may refrain from carrying forward aggressive positions on either side

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Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt Ltd

Published on 23/11/2020 10:44:40 AM

Open Interest in Nifty Options:

* The above second chart shows previous trading day’s change in Nifty options where addition in OI were seen in 12900, 12800, 12700 strike Puts and at 12800, 13000 Calls indicating market is likely to remain positive in the near term.

* Highest OI build-up is seen at 13000 strike Call and 12000 strike Put, to the tune of 5.82mn and 6.95mn respectively.

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