Published on 26/07/2021 5:34:55 PM
Key gauges end in red in lacklustre trade on Monday
Indian equity benchmarks were traded in lacklustre mood and ended with losses on Monday dragged down by losses in index heavyweights SBI, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra amid a largely subdued trend in global markets. Indian markets started the day marginally in red, as fears of a third wave and the spread of Delta and Delta plus variant dampened sentiments in markets. However, markets traded flat with a positive bias in morning deals as Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal expressed confidence that India will continue to attract high foreign direct investment (FDIs) in the current financial year. Traders took some support as ICRA Ratings in its latest report stated that the government is set to exceed the budgeted tax collection target of Rs 22.2 lakh crore for 2021-22, led by indirect taxes, primarily taxes on petroleum products. Some support also came as investments in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes (P-notes) rose to Rs 92,261 crore till the end of June, making it the highest level in 37 months. This also marks the third consecutive monthly growth.
But, markets erased gains and continued their lackluster trade in afternoon session, as traders were worried with report by Omidyar Network India and Crisil stating that the second COVID-19 wave has intensified pressure points for small and mini NBFCs, as they did not get the benefit of the RBI's liquidity measures announced last year. Some concern also came with reports that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) offloaded Indian equities to the tune of over Rs 5,689 crore in July so far as they continued to adopt a cautious stance in view of various domestic and global factors. During July 1-23, FPIs took out Rs 5,689.23 crore from equities, as per depositories data. Meanwhile, the provisional commerce ministry data showed that the country's exports grew 45.13 per cent to $22.48 billion during July 1-21 on account of healthy growth in sectors such as gems and jewellery, petroleum and engineering. Imports also rose 64.82 per cent to $31.77 billion in the said period, leaving a trade deficit of $9.29 billion.
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Published on 26/07/2021 2:06:03 PM
Weekly Technical Outlook
NIFTY Auto: 10201.35 weekly change (-2.18%)
Observation
* On the monthly time frame we can see that the NIFTY AUTO index has been moving in a broader range of 9200 - 11090 since past few months.
* On the weekly chart we can see that the index has formed ‘Double Top’ pattern near 10900 mark and with that it has been forming a lower top lower bottom pattern since the past 3 weeks. Currently it has placed just below the 20 Week SMA which shows some negative sentiments for the short to medium term.
* On the daily chart, the sector has been sustaining below its 100 Day SMA since last 3 days which confirms the bearish undertone of the sector for the short term.
* On the indicator front, the RSI plotted on the weekly time frame is placed near 52 marks but it has been moving downwards since last few weeks with the formation of lower top lower bottom pattern, indicating increasing bearish momentum in the prices.
* Going ahead 9980 (multiple touch point level) can be expected to act as a key support level, If the prices breach below this level we can expect further downside towards 9525– 9345 (23.6% retracement level of the rise from 4452– 11093 and swing low).
* The 2 week high of 10531 will act as a key resistance level going ahead. If the prices breach above this level, we can expect the prices to move higher and test the 10900 (Multiple touch point level).
Inference & Expectations
* NIFTY AUTO on the monthly time frame seems to have halted it up move since the past few of months and has been moving sideways.
* In the week that passed by the index moved lower and tested a fresh multi week low.
* The price action of the past few weeks suggests that the index might witness further down move if the prices breach below the previous week low of 10175.
* If the prices breach below the 10175 mark we can expect the prices to move lower towards 9980 immediately followed by 9523 -9345 eventually.
* The above analysis will not hold true if the prices breaches above the 2 week high of 10531 levels, beyond which we can expect the prices to move higher towards the 10900 mark.
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Published on 26/07/2021 2:05:44 PM
Weekly Technical Outlook
NIFTY IT: 29894 weekly change (1.68%)
Observation
* On the monthly time frame the NIFTY IT index has been forming a higher high higher low patter since June 2020.
* On the weekly time frame we can see the prices forming a higher high higher low pattern after breaking out of a ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ pattern.
* On the weekly chart we have shown the Bollinger bands, wherein we can see that the prices riding the upper Bollinger bands since the past couple of weeks.
* On the indicator front the RSI plotted on the weekly chart can be seen placed above the 50 mark since June 2020, currently it can be seen moving higher, pointing towards the presence of bullish momentum in the prices. The MACD plotted on the weekly time frame can be seen placed above the zero line, indicating the presence of bullishness in the trend. The MACD histogram can be seen moving higher, indicating increasing bullish momentum in the trend.
* On the upside 30400 (38.2% extension level of the rise from 10991-27176.50 projected from 24212) will act as a resistance level above which we can expect the 32305 (50% extension level of the rise from 10991-27176.50 projected from 24212).
* The 3 week low of 28380 will act as a red flag level, if the prices breach below this level we might see the prices move lower towards the 27135 (20 Week SMA).
Inference & Expectations
* From the long term perspective, the NIFTY IT seems to be in a strong bullish phase.
* The price action on short and the medium term charts suggests that the prices have given a break out of a consolidation, and is currently showing signs of outperforming the NIFTY.
* The primary trend of the NIFTY IT index remains to be strongly bullish, from a medium term perspective. We can expect the prices to move higher towards the 30400 mark immediately. If this level breaches we feel the prices to move higher towards 35305 levels.
* Our Bullish view will be negated if the prices breaks below 28380 mark. After that we may see further down move towards 27135 levels.
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Published on 26/07/2021 2:01:24 PM
Lackluster trade continues on Dalal Street
Indian equity benchmarks continued their lackluster trade in afternoon session, with Sensex and Nifty trading below at 53,000 and 15,850 levels, respectively. Traders were concerned as foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) offloaded Indian equities to the tune of over Rs 5,689 crore in July so far as they continued to adopt a cautious stance in view of various domestic and global factors. During July 1-23, FPIs took out Rs 5,689.23 crore from equities, as per depositories data. However, downfall remain capped as Industry Minister Piyush Goyal expressed confidence that India will continue to attract high foreign direct investment (FDIs) in the current financial year. Meanwhile, the provisional commerce ministry data showed that the country's exports grew 45.13 per cent to $22.48 billion during July 1-21 on account of healthy growth in sectors such as gems and jewellery, petroleum and engineering. Imports also rose 64.82 per cent to $31.77 billion in the said period, leaving a trade deficit of $9.29 billion.
On the global front, Asian markets were trading mostly in red as concerns over tightening regulations upended Chinese equities and strong U.S. corporate earnings sucked funds out of emerging markets into Wall Street. Back on street, in scrip specific developments, ICICI Bank surged on reporting 52% rise in Q1 consolidated net profit while Reliance Industries tumbles on reporting 7% fall in Q1 consolidated net profit.
The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 52947.86, down by 27.94 points or 0.05% after trading in a range of 52783.63 and 53103.42. There were 17 stocks advancing against 13 stocks declining on the index.
The broader indices were trading in green; the BSE Mid cap index rose 0.31%, while Small cap index was up by 0.69%.
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Published on 26/07/2021 11:12:33 AM
Nifty Intraday Levels
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Published on 26/07/2021 11:12:19 AM
Bank Nifty Intraday Levels
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Published on 26/07/2021 10:41:08 AM
Bank Nifty: Sustainability above 35000 important for continued move…
* Post HDFC Bank’s result, the Bank Nifty saw aggressive profit booking and moved towards its sizeable Put base of 34500. However, a trend reversal was seen on weekly expiry day and it managed to move near 35000 levels
* Despite aggressive profit booking in broader indices, IVs remained muted. This is still pointing towards lack of direction and continuance of trading range. We feel IVs will remain choppy and are unlikely to close above 15% in coming days
* Huge Call additions were observed in 35000 and 35500 strike Calls. However, sustainability of a move above 35000 is important to continue the upward bias. In that scenario, the banking index may retest its major hurdle of 36000 during settlement. On the lower side, 34500 remains immediate and crucial support for the banking index
* As rollover activity picks up pace, we may see stock specific triggers. However, stocks like Axis Bank, SBI and Kotak Mahindra Bank along with others look good from current levels, which should help the Bank Nifty to hold 34500 on a closing basis. We feel the index would consolidate in coming days and fresh up moves are expected towards 36000 levels
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Published on 26/07/2021 10:40:53 AM
Nifty: Volatility in expiry may trigger some direction…
* The Nifty moved back to its consolidation range of 15600 to 15900 again and despite breaching 15600 levels in intraday, recovered and closed the week with a marginal loss of almost 0.5%. Some pause was observed in the broader markets as well and small cap and midcap indices closed the week marginally negative
* On the options front, the options activity is concentrated at ATM strikes of 15800 for both Call and Put. While the highest Call base is at 16000 strike, Put base is highest at 15800 strike. Hence, prima facie, a move below 15750 should trigger downside towards 15500. On higher side, we believe retesting of last week’s high itself may trigger short covering momentum, which may take the Nifty towards 16200 levels
* Sectorally, banking has relatively underperformed last week and moved towards its lower band of the range while technology stocks have largely compensated
* Volatility index has moved back below 12 levels after testing 14 last week. During the month, on multiple occasions, it has found resistance around these levels. We believe move above 14 levels for volatility index should be considered negative. Including the weekend, we have results from almost 16 Index companies, which may trigger some volatility
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Published on 26/07/2021 10:35:51 AM
Technical Outlook
Equity benchmarks concluded a volatile week on a flat to negative note as index recouped most of intraweek losses and ended the week at 14856, down 0.5%. In the coming session, index is likely to open gap down tracking weak Asian cues. We expect the index after a negative opening will attempt a pullback holding above 15750- 15700 levels. Hence, use intraday dip towards 15730-15750 to create long for target of 15843
Key point to highlight during ongoing consolidation is that, over past four consecutive weeks index has managed to hold 15600 mark on multiple occasions, highlighting strong support base, which we do not foresee to breach. However, lack of faster retracement in either direction signal continuation of the current consolidation in the range of 15500-15950. Thus, dips from hereon should be capitalised on to accumulate quality stocks amid progression of Q1FY22 earning season
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Published on 26/07/2021 10:34:38 AM
Banknifty
Bank Nifty started the week on a negative note and remained negative in initial half however Friday's strong gains pulled index higher to end on flat note. Bank Nifty closed at 35034 with a loss of 716 points on a weekly basis.
On the weekly chart the index has formed a Bearish candle with a long lower shadow indicating buying at lower levels.. On the daily chart, the index is consolidating within the range of 34000 - 36000 indicating sideways trend.. The chart pattern suggests that if Bank Nifty crosses and sustains above 35400 level it would witness buying which would lead the index towards 35800-36200 levels. However if index breaks below 34400 level it would witness selling which would take the index towards 34000-33700. Bank Nifty is now well placed above its 20 SMA indicating positive bias in the short term. Bank Nifty continues to remain in an uptrend in the medium term, so buying on dips continues to be our preferred strategy. For the week, we expect Bank Nifty to trade in the range of 34300-36000 with mixed bias.
The weekly strength indicator RSI is moving upwards and is quoting above its reference line indicating positive bias. However momentum oscillator Stochastic has turned negative from the overbought zone indicating a possible consolidation or a down move in the near term
The trend deciding level for the day is 34840 If BANKNIFTY trades above this level then we may witness a further rally up to 35280-35525-35965 levels. However, if BANKNIFTY trades below 34840 levels then we may see some profit booking initiating in the market, it may correct up to 34595-34160-33915 levels
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