Buy Suzlon Energy Ltd for the Target Rs. 74 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Strong pipeline and export readiness support long-term value creation
We attended Suzlon Energy’s (SUEL) Manufacturing Day on 4-5th December, which included a tour of the Pondicherry plant and interactions with the senior leadership team, including Co-Founder & Vice Chairman Shri Girish Tanti and CEO Shri JP Chalasani. Our key takeaways are as follows:
* Management expects limited impact on near-term order flows from the slowdown in central renewables bidding (~40 GW projects lacking PPAs), highlighting that ~15 GW of wind orders remain in the pipeline (bidding/award stage).
* The potential cancellation/re-bidding of ~40 GW of PPAs (largely solar/solar + storage) reflects growing realism in the market—demand must guide supply addition, making wind an essential component of the energy mix.
* SUEL’s EPC strategy of securing limited land parcels across ~23 GW of wind sites nationwide provides a strategic edge vs. domestic/Chinese peers, strengthening its role in the long-term development plans of major generators.
* Exports are set to become a key growth driver, with current platforms close to export-ready and greater clarity expected over the coming quarters.
* Management remains confident that India can reach 10 GW of annual wind installations by FY28 (vs. 6.5-7 GW run-rate in FY26). Growing demand from AI/data centers and rising C&I load represent an upside potential to India’s 100 GW wind target by 2030. The company plans to expand capacity through three new smartblade factories—two in Gujarat and Karnataka, and a third location to be finalized in 2 to 3 months—to shorten turnaround time, improve customer and site proximity, and enhance logistics and transportation efficiency.
* We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of INR74/share.
SUEL drives India’s 100GW wind ambition, with 4.5GW manufacturing capacity and 6.2GW order book
* Management reaffirmed India’s installed wind potential of 100 GW by 2030, emphasizing that a higher share of wind is essential for achieving the lowestcost energy mix.
* SUEL currently operates with an annual manufacturing capacity of 4.5 GW, supported by a workforce of 7,579 employees. To support this growth trajectory, the company plans to add incremental capacity from FY26 onward through three new smart-blade factories. Two of these facilities will be located in Gujarat and Karnataka, while the third site is expected to be finalized in the next 2-3 months. The new facilities aim to reduce turnaround time, enhance proximity to customers and wind sites, and improve logistics and transportation efficiency.
* Generation forecasts have improved significantly with technological advancements, and SUEL is now able to predict wind output at 15-minute intervals with 98% accuracy, with efforts underway to reach 10-minute intervals.
* The company reiterated the significant untapped potential in India’s wind sector; of the 1,142 GW assessed potential, only ~4% has been harnessed so far.
* India’s installed wind base stands at 52 GW, with orders placed for 24.4 GW (SUEL holding ~6.2 GW or ~25% share). An additional 17.6 GW of orders are yet to be placed, and around 6 GW is pending tendering.
Pondicherry manufacturing facility overview
* The Pondicherry WTG and nacelle cover manufacturing facility has a total installed capacity of 2.8 GW, equivalent to three sets per day for the 3.15 MW (S144) turbine platform. ? The plant spans 66 acres, of which only ~30% is currently utilized, and is producing one set/day through a workforce of about 500 employees.
* SUEL intends to scale operations to three shifts when required, which will increase employment at the site to ~1,500.
India’s path to a 10-20% share in the global wind supply chain
* Management noted that India possesses both the ecosystem and manufacturing capacity to emerge as a major global wind export hub. While global OEMs are already exporting from India, domestic firms must increasingly look outward.
* According to Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), India could account for 10% of the global wind supply chain by 2030, and management expects this to rise to 20% by 2035.
* SUEL’s current turbine platform is already 90-95% suitable for most export markets; customization related to grid codes, regulatory certifications, and minor product tuning can typically be completed within 12-18 months, with no major capex required.
* The company expects global wind capacity to expand 2.5x over the next five years.
Path towards 10 GW+ annual wind additions by FY28
* Management highlighted that bidding activity in India has outpaced execution, with several PPAs and PSAs still awaiting finalization. Despite the ongoing bidding pause, management does not expect any material impact on the sector’s growth trajectory, given that industry capacity was already lagging tender volumes.
* Management emphasized that India’s approach to renewable additions must increasingly account for the divergence between load curves, demand patterns, and generation profiles—an area where wind plays a critical balancing role.
* India’s wind installations are expected to exceed 10 GW annually by 2028, supported by improved state-level grid connectivity and growing C&I demand, which is incremental to the national target of 100 GW by 2030.
* SUEL has already identified 23 GW of potential wind sites, with land acquisition initiated for 7–8 GW, and aims to increase its EPC share from 20% currently to about 50% by 2028.
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