Buy JSW Infrastructure Ltd for the Target Rs. 360 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Oman partnership supports capacity expansion; integrated logistics strategy to accelerate growth
* JSW Infrastructure (JSWINFRA) has entered into a transformative partnership with Minerals Development Oman (MDO) by acquiring a 51% stake in a newly incorporated Port SPV. The SPV will develop and operate a 27mtpa Greenfield bulk port to support the industrial minerals projects in the Dhofar region of Oman. With a total project capex of USD419m and a construction timeline of 36 months, the port is expected to commence commercial operations in 1QFY30. The port is designed to handle industrial minerals sourced from MDO’s extensive concessions. Considering JSW’s strong balance sheet with net debt/equity at ~0.16x and net debt/EBITDA at ~0.75x, we believe it has enough headroom for growth-led investments.
* JSWINFRA is executing multiple brownfield and greenfield expansion projects, with plans to scale up from 177mtpa currently to 400mtpa by FY30. Projects under execution total 121.6mtpa (excl Oman), including the Kolkata Container Terminal (6.3mtpa), Tuticorin (7mtpa), and JNPA Liquid Terminal (4.5mtpa), with completion expected during FY26-28. The company is undertaking strategic capacity upgrades at Mangalore, Southwest Port, Dharamtar, and Jaigarh, targeting a combined expansions of over 40mtpa. Landmark greenfield projects such as the Keni Port (30mtpa), Jatadhar Port (30mtpa), and a 302km slurry pipeline in Odisha are progressing well, all scheduled for commissioning by FY28-30.
* Alongside ports, JSWINFRA is pursuing an aggressive logistics infrastructure build-out under JSW Ports Logistics, supported by an investment plan of INR90b through FY30. This expansion is expected to deliver revenue of INR80b and EBITDA of INR20b at scale.
* With a balanced east-west coast presence and expanding inland logistics, JSWINFRA is well-placed to benefit from India’s push for multimodal integration and port-led industrial growth. We estimate JSWINFRA to deliver a CAGR of 15%/24%/26%/23% in volume/revenue/EBITDA/APAT over FY25- 28. Reiterate BUY with a TP of INR360 (based on 17x FY28E EV/EBITDA).
Pursuing capacity expansion while strengthening third-party cargo share
* JSWINFRA continues to deliver resilient performance, supported by a diversified cargo mix, rising third-party share (49% in FY25 vs. 25% in FY22), and steady execution of new assets.
* Despite a softer show in 2QFY26, management remains confident of achieving 8-10% cargo growth in FY26, aided by capacity additions and stronger activity in the second half. Further, JSWINFRA is strategically positioned to capitalize on India’s growing port infrastructure needs, with a goal to expand its port capacity to 400mtpa by FY30 from 177mtpa as of Sep’25. Recent expansions at JNPA, Tuticorin, Mangalore, and PNP ports have already increased its capacity to 177mtpa as of Sep’25.
* On the greenfield side, strategic developments like Keni Port in Karnataka, Jatadhar Port in Odisha, and the Odisha slurry pipeline represent transformative infrastructure plays that can unlock new hinterland connectivity and long-term growth corridors. Execution has consistently remained on track, supported by proven project management capabilities and access to group synergies.
* The Indian government’s Maritime India Vision 2030 and long-term goal to quadruple port capacity to 10,000mtpa by 2047 create a favorable environment. JSWINFRA, as a leading private player, is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this growth through expansions and new projects.
Robust logistics business expansion
* In 2QFY26, the logistics segment recorded revenue of INR1.6b, supported by an improved EBITDA margin of ~15%. Navkar reported a strong operational performance, with EXIM volumes rising 22% YoY to 79,000 TEUs and domestic cargo volumes increasing 45% YoY to 0.39m tons.
* In FY26, the logistics business is expected to contribute INR7-8b in revenue and ~INR1b in EBITDA, driven by improved operations at Navkar and increased traction from recently added infrastructure.
* JSWINFRA has outlined an INR90b capex plan by FY30 for its ports logistics business, targeting INR80b in revenue and INR20b in EBITDA, with an EBITDA margin of 25%. Management expects group volumes to contribute 35-40% of total logistics segment revenue by FY30.
* The planned INR1.7b investment in Navkar in FY26 are aimed at revitalizing its operations and integrating the business with JSWINFRA’s logistics expansion plan, targeting an increase in EBITDA to INR1b from INR410m in FY25.
* The allocation of INR6b in FY26 for rakes and vertical cargo terminals (VCTs) will enhance logistics throughput and terminal efficiency. Additionally, exploring acquisition opportunities within the INR15b logistics capex budget signals proactive growth in this segment.
Valuation and view
* In FY26, cargo volume growth is expected to remain at ~8-10%, with stronger traction anticipated in 2HFY26. JSWINFRA’s long-term vision includes expanding its port capacity to 400mtpa by FY30 and developing a logistics platform aimed at generating INR80b in revenue and a 25% EBITDA margin. Backed by aggressive yet disciplined capex, customer diversification, and multimodal infrastructure expansion, JSWINFRA remains well-positioned for structural growth across India’s maritime and logistics value chain.
* We expect JSWINFRA to strengthen its market dominance, leading to a 15% volume CAGR over FY25-28. This, along with a sharp rise in logistics revenue, is expected to drive a 24% CAGR in revenue and a 26% CAGR in EBITDA over the same period. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a TP of INR360 (based on 17x FY28E EV/EBITDA).
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