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2025-09-04 05:49:18 pm | Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services
Buy Jindal Steel Ltd for the Target Rs. 1180 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Buy Jindal Steel Ltd for the Target Rs. 1180 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Revenue in line; low costs drive EBITDA beat

* Revenue stood at INR123b (-10% YoY and -7% QoQ), in line with our estimates. The decline in growth was primarily led by muted volume, which was partially offset by a better ASP.

* Adj. EBITDA stood at INR30.1b, rising 6% YoY and 21% QoQ (against our est. of INR25.5b), supported by lower costs and better ASP.

* EBITDA/t stood at INR15,819 (+3% YoY and +7% QoQ) vs. our est. of INR13,056/t in 1QFY26.

* APAT for the quarter stood at INR14.9b (+12% YoY and +36% QoQ), against our est. of INR10.8b.

* Production and sales for 1QFY26 stood at 2.09MT (flat YoY and -1% QoQ) and 1.9MT (-9% YoY and -11% QoQ), respectively, due to the early onset of the monsoon and inventory build-up.

* The share of exports increased to 7% in 1QFY26, compared to 3% in 4QFY25.

* ASP for the quarter stood at INR64,708/t (flat YoY and 5% QoQ), led by a higher share of flat products.

* Net debt stood at INR144b as of Jun’25 vs. INR120b in 4QFY25. Net debt/EBITDA increased to 1.49x in 1QFY26, compared to 1.26x as of 4QFY25.

 

Highlights from the management commentary

* Management reiterated its FY26 crude steel production guidance of 9-10mt, with incremental volumes of 0.2-0.3mt expected from existing facilities and 0.7-1.6mt from new expansions.

* The reduction in raw material costs was driven by savings in coking coal, PCI, scrap, and other inputs.

* Coking coal costs declined USD11/t in 1QFY26 (in line with the guidance) and are expected to decline by another USD5/t in 2QFY26.

* Domestic steel prices are currently 5-7% lower than in 1QFY26, with a potential recovery expected in the latter part of 2QFY26.

* Debt has increased temporarily due to working capital build-up and is expected to ease from 2Q onwards

 

Valuation and view

* JSP reported a decent 1Q performance, supported by healthy NSR and muted costs. Earnings are expected to improve in 2H, aided by volume ramp-up, NSR recovery, and continued muted costs. With the completion of its ongoing Angul expansion, JSP’s crude steel capacity will rise 65% to 15.9mtpa and finished steel capacity will increase 90% to 13.8mtpa, providing significant headroom for earnings growth.

* While debt increased to 1.5x as of 1Q-end, JSP aims to keep debt levels in check as working capital eases. We maintain our FY26/27E earnings and expect the company to generate strong CFO over FY26-27, which will be directed towards ongoing expansions. At CMP, the stock trades at 6.5x EV/EBITDA on FY27E. We reiterate our BUY rating with a revised TP of INR1,180, based on 7.5x EV/EBITDA on FY27 estimate.

 

 

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