Buy JSW Infrastructure Ltd For Target Rs.380 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Ports and logistics business expansion plans to fuel sustainable growth ahead
* JSWINFRA’s strategy of augmenting capacity, modernizing infrastructure, and pursuing selective acquisitions is well aligned with India’s long-term port sector growth ambitions, as the government targets a fourfold expansion of capacity to 10,000MTPA by FY47 from the current ~2,700MTPA. Its ability to leverage group cargo while steadily growing third-party volumes (52% in 1Q FY26) underlines its position in India’s port and logistics ecosystem.
* The company has reiterated that expanding port capacity remains a core priority, with plans to scale from 177MTPA today to 400MTPA by FY30.
* Alongside ports, JSWINFRA is pursuing an aggressive logistics infrastructure build-out under JSW Ports Logistics, supported by an investment plan of INR90b through FY30. This expansion is expected to deliver revenue of INR80b and EBITDA of INR20b at scale.
* FY26 capex outlay of INR55b (INR40b towards ports and INR15b towards logistics) is more than double of FY25 levels of INR24.4b. These investments are expected to support at least 10% growth in port volumes and a 50% jump in logistics revenues during FY26.
* With a balanced presence on both east and west coasts and growing inland connectivity investments, JSWINFRA is well positioned to capitalize on India’s structural push for multimodal integration, logistics efficiency, and port-led industrial development, making it a preferred partner for both anchor customers and third-party cargo owners.
* By consciously reducing dependence on captive JSW Group cargo and expanding into containerized, liquid, and other diversified categories, the company is mitigating concentration risks while opening new revenue pools. We expect JSWINFRA to strengthen its market dominance, leading to a 13% volume CAGR over FY25-27E. This should drive a 22% CAGR in revenue and a 23% CAGR in EBITDA over the same period. We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of INR380 (premised on 23x FY27 EV/EBITDA).
Executing capacity expansion while deepening third-party cargo share
* JSWINFRA continues to deliver resilient performance, supported by a diversified cargo mix, rising third-party share (52% in 1Q FY26 v/s 25% in Mar’22), and steady execution of new assets. The business has successfully transitioned from being largely captive to a more balanced model, with external customers now accounting for more than half of volumes.
* Despite a softer start in 1QFY26, management remains confident of achieving double-digit cargo growth for the full year, aided by capacity additions and stronger activity in the second half.
* Further, JSWINFRA is strategically positioned to capitalize on India’s growing port infrastructure needs, with a goal to expand its port capacity to 400MTPA by FY30 from 177MTPA as of Jun’25. Recent expansions at JNPA, Tuticorin, Mangalore, and PNP ports have already increased its capacity from 170 MTPA in Dec’24 to 177MTPA in Jun’25.
* The Indian government’s Maritime India Vision 2030 and long-term goal to quadruple port capacity to 10,000MTPA by 2047 create a favorable environment. JSWINFRA, as a leading private player, is well-positioned to capture a significant share of this growth through expansions and new projects.
Capacity expansion – disciplined execution with long-term vision
* JSWINFRA has one of the most robust capacity addition pipeline in the sector, spanning both brownfield upgrades and greenfield projects. Near-term efforts are concentrated on operationalizing recently won concessions such as Tuticorin and JNPA, alongside significant upgrades at Dharamtar, Jaigarh, Goa, and Mangalore. These projects not only add scale but also broaden the cargo portfolio beyond bulk commodities.
* On the greenfield side, strategic developments like Keni Port in Karnataka, Jatadhar Port in Odisha, and the Odisha slurry pipeline represent transformative infrastructure plays that can unlock new hinterland connectivity and long-term growth corridors. Execution has been consistently on track, supported by proven project management capabilities and access to group synergies
Robust logistics business expansion
* JSWINFRA’s INR90b capex plan by FY30 for JSW Ports Logistics aims to generate INR80b in revenue and INR20b in EBITDA, with a targeted 25% EBITDA margin. ? The planned INR1.7b investment in Navkar Corporation in FY26 aims to revitalize its operations and increase EBITDA to INR1b from INR410m in FY25. This focus on unlocking untapped potential strengthens JSWINFRA’s logistics portfolio. ? The allocation of INR6b in FY26 for rakes and Vertical Cargo Terminals (VCTs) will enhance logistics throughput and terminal efficiency. Additionally, exploring acquisition opportunities within the INR15b logistics capex budget signals proactive growth in this segment.
Valuation and view
* Management reiterated its FY26 cargo volume growth guidance of 10%, expecting stronger traction in 2HFY26. Long-term vision includes expanding port capacity to 400MTPA by FY30 and building a logistics platform delivering INR80b in revenue and a 25% EBITDA margin. Backed by aggressive yet disciplined capex, customer diversification, and multimodal infrastructure expansion, JSWINFRA remains well-positioned for structural growth across India’s maritime and logistics value chain. ? We expect JSWINFRA to strengthen its market dominance, leading to a 13% volume CAGR over FY25-27. This, along with a sharp rise in logistics revenues, is expected to drive a 22% CAGR in revenue and a 23% CAGR in EBITDA over the same period. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with a TP of INR380 (based on 23x FY27 EV/EBITDA).
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