Neutral Senco Gold Ltd for the Target Rs. 365 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Robust show; store expansion on track SENCO released its pre-quarterly update for 2QFY26. Here are the key takeaways:
Gold price trends
- Gold prices rose ~23% QoQ and ~65% YoY (on average) in 3Q, leading to major demand from global central banks and investment-led demand for ETFs, but muted volume growth.
- The gold price hit the highest level of INR140,000/10gm in 3QFY26, as against INR117,000 in 2QFY26 and INR79,800 in 3QFY25.
Financial and operational performance
- In 3QFY26, SENCO achieved a robust growth of 51% YoY (est. 17%; 23.8% in 3QFY25). The retail business grew ~49% with SSSG of ~39%.
- With 6.5% growth in 2Q (much slower than peers) and 28% in 1Q (given quarterly volatility), it implies ~31% growth in 9MFY26 with SSSG of ~21%.
- The strong 9MFY26 performance was led by targeted festive campaigns, new design launches and intensive customer engagement during Dhanteras & Diwali, wedding buying and shift of 2Q demand to the festive season.
- Diamond jewelry sales growth remained strong at ~36% YoY in 3Q and ~34% in 9MFY26.
- TTM revenue has reached ~INR80b, reflecting consistent YoY growth, loyal customer base and strong brand positioning.
Store expansion and network growth
- SENCO launched 4 new franchise showrooms, taking the total showroom network to 196 (including 8 Sennes and 2 international showrooms).
- The newly opened franchise showrooms are located in Hazaribagh (JH), Etawah (UP), Burdwan (WB) and Bikaner (RJ).
- During 9MFY26, SENCO launched 11 franchise-owned and 5 company-owned stores.
Outlook
- Senco has successfully navigated the peak festive demand of 3Q and continues to optimize its inventory more toward a lightweight and budget-friendly product range due to rising gold prices.
- It is prepared for the upcoming 4Q wedding season, Valentine's Day, International Women's Day, and other local festivals. It is targeting 18-20% growth in the studded category through curated collections.
- SENCO is on track to achieve its FY26 target of opening 20 new showrooms, and plans to launch another 3 to 4 showrooms under the COCO and FOCO models to achieve the milestone of 200 showrooms. Moreover, it has a robust pipeline for 1HFY27.
- The company is confident of achieving 25%+ revenue growth in FY26, higher than its earlier guidance of 18-20% growth.
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