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Gold

Gold prices tumbled 2.99% to settle at 1,61,108, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, which hovered near a five-week high. Reduced expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts have supported the dollar, weighing on bullion. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East limited the downside. Iran’s warning over the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz and fresh U.S. military strikes have heightened geopolitical risks, keeping safe-haven demand alive and preventing a deeper correction. On the demand front, China remained a key driver. Net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 68.7% month-on-month in January to 20.585 tonnes, while total imports through the route rose 30.4%. Physical gold in China traded at premiums of $12–$13 per ounce, reflecting strong post-holiday demand. The People’s Bank of China extended its gold buying streak for a 15th consecutive month. Meanwhile, Indian markets saw discounts widen to $65 per ounce as higher prices dampened retail demand. China’s total gold consumption in 2025 fell 3.57%, though investment demand through bars, coins, and ETFs surged sharply. Technically, gold is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 1.46% to 8,117 lots while prices fell 4,966. Immediate support is seen at 1,58,250, with a break below potentially testing 1,55,390. Resistance stands at 1,64,435, and a move above this level could push prices toward 1,67,760.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 155390-167760.

* Gold prices dropped as the dollar hovered close to a more than five-week high.

* However, concerns about a broader regional conflict in the Middle East limited the upside.

* Further, reduced bets for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) further undermines the USD.

Silver

Silver prices dropped sharply by 4.73% to settle at 2,65,318, as a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields outweighed safe-haven demand. The dollar firmed amid escalating Middle East tensions and surging energy prices, reinforcing its appeal as the primary reserve currency. Higher fuel costs have also stoked inflation concerns, pushing bond yields up and prompting markets to reassess the Federal Reserve’s policy path. While two 25-basis-point rate cuts are still priced in for this year, expectations for the first cut have shifted further out. U.S. economic data added to the pressure. Producer prices rose 0.5% in January, above forecasts, while core PPI jumped 0.8%, signaling persistent inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain elevated, with reports of potential U.S. strikes on Iranian assets and warnings over tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. On the supply side, physical silver markets show tightening conditions. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories have fallen to around 350 tonnes—near a decade low and down sharply from their 2021 peak. London vault holdings also slipped marginally to 27,729 tonnes at end-January. Technically, silver is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 2.57% to 6,525 lots while prices fell 13,163. Immediate support lies at 2,59,425, with a break below potentially testing 2,53,535. Resistance is seen at 2,69,580, and a move above could target 2,73,845.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 253535-273845.

* Silver dropped as a firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields offset demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

* The greenback strengthened as investors sought the reserve currency amid surging energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict.

* Expectations for the next Fed rate cut have been deferred to September from earlier projections of July.

Crude oil

Crude oil surged 7.28% to settle at 6,970 as escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran stoked fears of major supply disruptions in the Middle East. Concerns intensified after reports that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz and target vessels attempting to pass through the key shipping route. Tanker traffic has already slowed, insurers have withdrawn coverage, and freight rates have jumped sharply. Adding to supply worries, Saudi Aramco temporarily suspended operations at its Ras Tanura refinery following a drone strike. While geopolitical risks drove prices higher, supply-side developments offered a mixed picture. OPEC+ announced a modest production increase of 206,000 barrels per day in April, slightly higher than previous increments. However, several members reportedly have limited spare capacity. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly surged by nearly 16 million barrels, the largest build in three years, though gasoline stocks declined. The International Energy Agency slightly raised its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd, signaling a somewhat tighter balance ahead. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects domestic production to ease after peaking in 2025. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 1.9% to 16,919 lots while prices rose 473. Immediate support is seen at 6,675, with a break below potentially testing 6,380. Resistance stands at 7,240, and a move above could extend gains toward 7,510.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6380-7510.

* Crude oil rose as U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran and threats to shipping via the ‌Strait of Hormuz heightened supply fears.

* Oil production at Kazakhstan's Tengiz field fell 30% on march 1 from February's average output to 415,000 bpd.

* OPEC+ agreed to resume oil production increases at a slightly accelerated pace as a conflict sparked by US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices jumped 6.18% to settle at 288.5, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and fears of supply disruptions. The widening U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has rattled energy markets, particularly after Qatar halted LNG production at its Ras Laffan complex following a reported drone strike. The facility accounts for roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply, triggering sharp price spikes globally. UK gas futures surged to their highest levels since January 2023, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to supply risks. Strong LNG export demand has also provided support. In the U.S., production in the Lower 48 states has eased slightly to 109.1 bcfd in March, compared to February’s 109.2 bcfd and December’s record 110.6 bcfd. Gas flows to major LNG export terminals remain near record highs at 18.6 bcfd. Storage data showed a 52 bcf withdrawal for the week ended February 20, above expectations but well below last year’s draw. Total inventories stand at 2.018 tcf, marginally below the five-year average. The EIA projects output to rise to a record 110 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 16.69% to 21,900 lots while prices gained 16.8. Immediate support is seen at 279.3, with a break below possibly testing 270. Resistance stands at 296.5, and a move above could target 304.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 270-304.4.

* Natural gas prices rose amid supply disruptions as the U.S.-Israeli air war against Iran widened in the Middle East.

* Support also seen on near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

* Qatar halted LNG output at its Ras Laffan complex following an Iranian drone strike.

Copper

Copper slipped 1% to settle at 1,202.7, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar as escalating tensions in the Middle East dampened the outlook for global manufacturing demand. Market participants are now turning their attention to China’s upcoming National People’s Congress meetings, where key economic targets and the 2026–2030 Five-Year Plan will be outlined, potentially offering fresh demand cues. On the supply side, flooding in the Democratic Republic of Congo disrupted a key export route after a bridge collapse, impacting shipments from one of the world’s largest producers. However, rising global inventories capped gains. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses jumped 43.7% to 391,529 tons, the highest since 2016, marking the eleventh straight weekly increase. LME inventories also climbed to 253,600 tons. The International Copper Study Group reported a 173,000-ton global surplus in December, widening the annual surplus to 380,000 tons. Despite short-term pressure, major banks remain bullish. Goldman Sachs projects copper at $12,200 per ton by end-2026, while UBS sees prices reaching $15,000 within 13 months amid a widening supply deficit. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest easing 0.4% to 16,258 lots as prices fell 12.1. Immediate support is seen at 1,182.7, with a break below possibly testing 1,162.7. Resistance stands at 1,221.1, and a move above could target 1,239.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1162.7-1239.5.

* Copper dropped as war in the Middle East triggered a surge in dollar and hampered global manufacturing activity.

* Flooding disrupts copper shipments from DRC after bridge collapse near Zambian border

* Goldman Sachs raises copper price forecast to $12,200 by end – 2026

Zinc

Zinc edged lower by 0.12% to settle at 326.95, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar as geopolitical tensions involving Iran dampened sentiment toward global manufacturing demand. A sharp 44.8% jump in inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses added to the cautious tone. Weak Chinese economic data and lingering demand concerns also kept buyers on the sidelines. That said, the downside was limited. Market participants are anticipating restocking demand as Chinese traders return from holidays, while low global inventories and ongoing supply tightness continue to offer underlying support. A temporary suspension at a zinc mine in southwest China is expected to trim concentrate output by about 1,000 tonnes before operations resume. Meanwhile, global supply dynamics remain mixed. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported a 33,000-ton global deficit in 2025, narrower than the previous year, as refined production rose 2.1% and mine output climbed 5.4%. Total global inventories declined by 77,000 tons to 739,000 tons by year-end. Goldman Sachs expects a small surplus this year but sees tighter conditions emerging beyond 2026. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 0.62% at 3,826 lots. Immediate support is seen at 323, with a break below potentially testing 319. Resistance stands at 329.2, and a move above could push prices toward 331.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 319-331.4.

* Zinc dropped as the war in Iran triggered a surge for the US dollar and developed risks to global manufacturing demand.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 44.8%.

* Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to be in a small surplus this year, driven by growing mine supply.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 1.97% higher at 325.4, as escalating tensions in the Middle East raised fears of supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for regional producers, remains in focus after military strikes between the US, Israel, and Iran heightened geopolitical risk. The region accounts for nearly 9% of global aluminium capacity, so any prolonged disruption could tighten supply. Investment banks remain constructive. Morgan Stanley reiterated its bullish stance, projecting a FY2026 bull-case target of $3,700 per ton, citing China’s capped capacity and power constraints limiting fresh supply. Goldman Sachs also raised its first-half outlook to $3,150 per ton, pointing to low global inventories and firm demand growth. Meanwhile, production data from the International Aluminium Institute showed January output at 6.317 million tons, slightly higher year-on-year, while World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a 57,000-ton surplus in December. China continues to dominate the supply narrative, with output hovering around its 45-million-ton capacity cap, while imports rose 7.1% in December. On the technical front, fresh buying is evident, with open interest up 5.2% to 4,654 lots. Immediate support is seen at 322.4, with 319.4 below that, while resistance stands at 329; a breakout could extend gains toward 332.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 319.4-332.6.

* Aluminium rose as Middle East war threatens supply disruptions

* Aluminum rallies after QatarEnergy halts output

* Morgan Stanley says its bull case for aluminium for FY 2026 is $3700/T

Turmeric

Turmeric futures saw a sharp correction, falling 4.25% to settle at 14,826, largely due to expectations of a surge in fresh arrivals at Erode over the next two weeks. Higher acreage, supported by favourable rains during sowing, has also added pressure. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. At the all-India level, dried production is pegged at 90 lakh bags compared to 82.5 lakh bags last year. However, lower carry-forward stocks and below-normal arrivals are likely to cushion the downside. Weather disruptions, including heavy rains during August–September, affected nearly 15% of the crop in parts of Marathwada, leading to localized yield losses of 15–20%. Maharashtra’s dried output is still expected to rise to 54 lakh bags from 47.5 lakh bags last year, while other producing states may contribute around 40 lakh bags. Export demand remains supportive, with shipments during April–December 2025 up 3.99% at 1,42,386 tonnes, while imports dropped sharply by 41.54%. In Nizamabad, spot prices edged up marginally to 15,836.15. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 3.2% to 18,680 lots as prices declined 658. Immediate support is seen at 14,538, with a break below possibly testing 14,252. Resistance stands at 15,230, and a move above this level could push prices toward 15,636.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14252-15636.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15836.15 Rupees gained by 0.02 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures declined sharply by 2.78% to settle at 21,545, weighed down by the start of new crop arrivals in select mandis. Supplies are expected to increase further from March, keeping pressure on prices. Comfortable stock levels and subdued export demand have also dampened sentiment, as overseas buyers remain cautious and largely price-sensitive. During April–December 2025, exports fell 12.08% year-on-year to 1,45,137 tonnes, with December shipments also lower on both annual and monthly comparisons. However, the downside appears limited. Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, raising concerns over lower output. National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly below last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat’s output is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags, though aphid infestation risks in Rajasthan remain a concern. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with substantial carry-forward stocks likely. At Unjha, spot prices edged up 0.1% to 21,816.6, reflecting firm demand for good-quality produce. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 3.51% to 4,200 lots while prices dropped 615. Immediate support is seen at 21,210, with a break potentially testing 20,870. Resistance stands at 21,990, and a move above this could extend gains toward 22,430.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20870-22430.

* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21816.6 Rupees gained by 0.1 percent.