Powered by: Motilal Oswal
2025-08-25 11:54:56 am | Source: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
Buy Pricol Ltd For Target Rs. 575 By Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
Buy Pricol Ltd For Target Rs. 575 By Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd

Pricol logged a strong Q1, with consol revenue up 44% YoY (also aided by 3M of P3L consolidation vs 2M in Q4FY25) and EBITDAM rising by 60bps QoQ to 11% (ex-P3L, revenue growth stood at 11% with a sharp rise in EBITDAM to 12.3% vs 11.5% in Q4). Core-revenue outperformance against the underlying 2W industry production accelerated to 11% vs 2%/3% in Q4/Q3. Pricol targets continued outperformance vs the underlying industry, on premiumization-led content growth (eg digitization in clusters, new order wins) and new product launches/portfolio expansion (aided by strategic alliances/M&A). The mgmt guides to a healthy single digit margin at P3L, amid initiatives underway toward revenue/margin expansion at P3L as well as at its core operations. We continue to favor Pricol (refer to our note Targets 3x revenue by FY30; rare earth crunch to hit near term), on further improvement in its competitive positioning in a fast-premiumizing product category (clusters), apart from optionalities of expansion into more components backed by order wins (eg disc brakes launched in Q2; mass production for a strategic customer to start from Q4). Our estimates are unchanged; maintain BUY with TP of Rs575 at 24x Jun-27E PER.

Strong revenue and margin performance; underlying core margins on the rise

Consol revenue was up 44% (13.5% QoQ) at Rs8.,9bn with core-revenue (ex-P3L) up 11% YoY. Consol reported EBITDA grew 23% YoY (23% QoQ) to Rs990mn, with EBITDAM rising by 60bps QoQ to 11.1% led by 130bps/20bps reduction in staff costs/opex and partially offset by 80bps gross margin contraction. EBITDAM of the core-business (exP3L) also rose, by 75bps QoQ to 12.3%. Consol PAT stood at Rs499mn, up ~10% YoY.

Earnings Call KTAs 1) Pricol aims to continue outpacing the underlying end-user industry (core revenue outperformance vs 2W industry production at 11% in Q1 vs 3%/2% in Q3/Q4FY), aided by new product launches/premiumization-led content growth (value growth beats volume growth) despite ongoing ‘rare earth’ (REE)-related headwinds. 2) Q1FY26 was muted for the industry, largely due to REE shortages; the mgmt expects headwinds to persist in Q2 and anticipates a more stable production from Q3; Pricol implementing multiple measures for mitigating this issue. 3) Disc brakes launched in Q2, albeit in a limited manner; mass production for a major strategic 2W customer to begin from Jan-26; upcoming ABS regulations seen supporting growth here. 4) Pricol’s TLA with Italy-based Domino, for handlebar aggregates (switches, throttles, levers), was at the behest of certain customers; the mgmt expects revenue contribution to start in 12-15M; products for India and SE Asia. 5) P3L posted revenue of Rs2.05bn with ~7% EBITDAM in Q1FY26 (vs Rs1.7bn, 5% in Q1FY25); Pricol has initiated measures to support revenue/margin expansion, incl value-accretive products (engineered/precision plastic components), cost plans, and leveraging Pricol’s clientele. 6) Efforts underway to backward integrate/localize displays; progress expected over next 4 quarters; per the mgmt, complete de-risking from China is unfeasible. 7) Pricol plans capex of Rs5bn over next 3Y, of which Rs2.5- 3bn is at P3L; 20-22% incremental revenue can be generated from existing capacities.

 

For More  Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd Disclaimer http://www.emkayglobal.com/Uploads/disclaimer.pdf & SEBI Registration number is INH000000354

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investments in financial markets are subject to market risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers are strongly advised to consult a licensed financial expert or advisor for tailored advice before making any investment decisions. The data and information presented in this article may not be accurate, comprehensive, or up-to-date. Readers should not rely solely on the content of this article for any current or future financial references. To Read Complete Disclaimer Click Here