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Execution soft; visibility intact

CE Info Systems (MAPMY INDIA IN) reported a soft Q3FY26 performance, although order book momentum remained strong . Consolidated revenue declined 18.2% YoY/ 17.7% QoQ to INR 937mn (22% below estimate), primarily due to execution delays in certain government projects and customer -driven scope modifications. Delays in Maharashtra and Bihar projects, arising from funding d isbursement timelines and local body elections, deferred revenue recognition in Q3 . Additionally , integration of incremental AI components in certain enterprise projects pushed deliveries into Q4FY26 and early FY27. EBITDA fell 35.8% YoY to INR 268mn , with EBITDA margin at 28.6% ( versus 36.4% YoY) , impacted by operating deleverage and continued investments in IP build -out (navigation software, HD maps) . PAT declined 42.1% YoY (+1.4% QoQ) to INR 188mn, materially below our estimate of INR 373mn. Retain BUY with reduced TP of INR 2,273 (earlier INR 2,551)

Orderbook expansion reinforces demand visibility: Despite revenue softness, the order book increased to INR 17.7bn ( versus INR 15bn as of March 2025), reflecting strong order inflows. Management indicated that order momentum remains healthy in Q4, supporting order book stability and improving near -term revenue visibility, while underpinning the company’s INR 10bn revenue aspiration by FY28.

Segmental performance: The Map-led business, while continuing to anchor profitability, reported revenue of INR 510mn ( -41.5% YoY), impacted by execution delays in government and enterprise projects. Despite the revenue decline, EBITDA margin remained strong at 41.9%, reflecting the structurally high -margin nature of the segment . The IoT-led segment emerged as a key growth driver, with revenue increasing 56% YoY to INR 427mn. EBITDA margin stood at 12.4%, with scale benefits expected to support gradual margin improvement .

Maintain BUY with reduced TP of INR 2,273: Management reiterated FY26 EBITDA margin guidance of ~35%,reflecting confidence in execution recovery, with Q4FY26 expected to deliver stronger YoY growth versus Q4FY25. The order book expanded to ~INR 17.7bn ( versus INR 15bn in March 2025 ), enhancing revenue visibility and supporting the company’s INR 10bn revenue aspiration by FY28. While quarterly volatility may persist due to project -based execution in the government vertical, the structural margin profile remains intact. 

At CMP, the stock trades at an attractive 20.3x FY28E P/E and 16.3x FY28E EV/EBITDA. Our valuation is based on 45x (unchanged) one-year forward EPS of INR 51, supported by superior return ratios (FY28E ROCE/ROE: 2 5.6%/24.2%). While we trim our revenue estimates by ~4 -8% for FY26 E -28E to reflect a calibrated growth outlook, we expect improved operating leverage to drive margin expansion of ~160bp s in FY26E, partially offsetting the revenue downgrade. However, reflecting the lower revenue base, we reduce our EBITDA and PAT estimates by ~9 – 10% and ~10 – 12%, respectively, over FY27 E -28E. Accordingly, we revise our TP to INR 2,273 (earlier INR 2,551). We maintain BUY, supported by structural growth drivers, strong recurring revenue visibility, and a resilient margin profile.

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