Automobiles Sector Update : Automobile quarterly - 1QFY26 by Kotak Institutional Equities

* Passenger vehicles: Domestic passenger vehicle industry volumes decreased by 1.4% yoy in 1QFY26. Maruti Suzuki volumes declined by 6% yoy in 1QFY26. M&M volumes improved by 22%, whereas Tata Motors volumes decreased by 10% yoy in 1QFY26, and Hyundai Motors volumes declined by 11% yoy in 1QFY26. UV segment volumes increased by 4% yoy and SUV mix improved by 340 bps yoy in 1QFY26. In terms of market share, MSIL’s market share declined by 200 bps yoy and Tata Motors lost 120 bps market share yoy in 1QFY26.
* Two-wheelers: Two wheeler industry volumes decreased 8% yoy in 1QFY26, owing to the weak performance of the motorcycle and scooter segments on a higher base. In the motorcycle segment, Hero MotoCorp volumes decreased 13.3% yoy in 1QFY26, whereas HMSI’s volumes decreased by 5.2% in 1QFY26. Scooter segment volumes declined by 5% yoy in 1QFY26. In the scooter segment, HMSI’s volumes declined by 20% yoy in 1QFY26. RE gained 150 bps market share yoy in the motorcycle segment, led by market share gain of 320 bps in the premium segment in 1QFY26. TVS Motors has gained 600 bps market share yoy in the scooter segment in 1QFY26.
* Light commercial vehicles: LCV volumes remained flat yoy in 1QFY26. M&M volumes increased by 4% yoy and Tata Motors volumes declined by 13% yoy in 1QFY26. Ashok Leyland’s LCV volumes increased by 2% yoy in 1QFY26. M&M gained 160 bps market share yoy and Tata Motors lost 410 bps market share yoy in 1QFY26. MSIL gained 70 bps market share yoy in 1QFY26.
* Medium and heavy commercial vehicles: MHCV volumes decreased by 2% yoy in 1QFY26. Tata Motors’ volumes decreased by 7% yoy in 1QFY26. Eicher Motors’ volumes increased by 7% yoy, respectively, in 1QFY26. Tata Motors’ market share fell by 260 bps on a yoy basis and Eicher Motors’ market share increased by 160 bps yoy in 1QFY26, whereas AL’s market share declined by 10 bps on a yoy basis in 1QFY26.
* State-wise demand trends in 4QFY25: Our analysis of state-wise demand trends for 4QFY25 reflects that (1) strong demand trends in PV segment, especially in northern and western markets, (2) sustained growth in the 2W segment buoyed by strong rural demand, especially in western India (3) low single-digit growth in the M&HCV segment, marked by strong performance in northern markets, (4) a slight decline in LCV segment demand led by a strong decline in eastern India, (5) improvement in scooter mix yoy and (6) M&M in PV and LCV segments and TVS in 2W segment posted maximum market share gain yoy in 4QFY25.
* New launches: Tata Motors launched Harrier EV in June 2025. In the 2W segment, Hero Motorcorp launched VIDA VX2 in June 2025 and HF Deluxe Pro in July 2025, while Yamaha plans to launch Nmax in FY2026. Kia Motors launched Kia Carens EV during July, 2025. In addition, we expect more launches in the SUV space, further increasing the competitive intensity.
* Prices: Most OEMs across the segments hiked the prices of both motorcycles and scooters across models in 1QFY26. In passenger cars, Honda hiked prices across the models in 1QFY26.
* Global trends: Global PV volumes increased by 7% yoy in 2QCY25. China PV volumes rose 14% yoy, whereas US PV volumes grew by 2% on yoy basis in 2QCY25. Japan volumes grew by 6% yoy and EU volumes declined by 3% yoy in 2QCY25. EV sales have grown quite significantly, with 34% yoy growth globally, with China contributing 70% of the total sales at 2.1 mn, showing 47% yoy growth.
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