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The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its first pressing estimate for the 2025-26 cotton season at 305 lakh bales of 170 kg each, slightly lower than last year’s 312.4 lakh bales. Total cotton supply for the year is projected at 410.59 lakh bales, while domestic consumption is expected to fall to 300 lakh bales from 314 lakh in 2024-25. Imports are forecasted at 45 lakh bales and exports at 17 lakh bales. The closing stock by September 2026 is projected at 93.59 lakh bales, indicating higher carryover supply despite softer consumption and lower production estimates.

Key Highlights

*  CAI estimates 2025-26 cotton pressing at 305 lakh bales.

*  Total supply seen rising to 410.59 lakh bales.

*  Domestic consumption expected to dip to 300 lakh bales.

*  Cotton exports estimated at 17 lakh bales for the season.

*  Closing stock projected to rise sharply to 93.59 lakh bales.

The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its first estimate for the 2025-26 cotton season, pegging total pressing at 305 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This marks a modest decline from last year’s figure of 312.4 lakh bales, reflecting a slight contraction in production across several growing regions, particularly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Telangana.

According to CAI’s data, total cotton supply for 2025-26 is projected at 410.59 lakh bales, compared to 392.59 lakh bales in the previous season. The increase is primarily driven by higher opening stocks of 60.59 lakh bales and an uptick in imports estimated at 45 lakh bales, up by 4 lakh bales from last year.

On the demand side, domestic consumption is forecasted to decline to 300 lakh bales, down 14 lakh bales from 2024-25, amid sluggish textile activity and subdued export orders. Exports are expected to dip slightly to 17 lakh bales, while the closing stock at the end of the 2025-26 season is projected at 93.59 lakh bales, up sharply from 60.59 lakh bales last year, suggesting comfortable supply levels.

The CAI’s Crop Committee, comprising 18 members from key cotton-growing states, highlighted that while production has seen regional variations, the overall supply scenario remains steady due to increased imports and carryover stocks. The committee will continue monitoring monthly pressing data for any revisions in upcoming reports.

Finally, India’s cotton outlook for 2025-26 remains balanced, with steady supply and higher closing stocks offsetting reduced production and softer domestic demand.

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