Global LNG Market Tightens as Europe, Asia Clash Over Supply Amid Trump Policies by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The global LNG market faces tightening supply in 2025 as Europe’s surging demand intensifies competition with Asia, offsetting new North American projects. Europe’s LNG imports are projected to rise by 14 million tons to 101 million tons to refill depleted gas storage and replace lost Russian supplies via Ukraine. Meanwhile, Asia’s demand growth slows to 2% due to higher prices, down from 6% in 2024. U.S. projects like Plaquemines LNG and Trump’s policies, including ending the LNG export permit freeze and tariff threats on China, add market uncertainty. Analysts warn China may retaliate by shifting imports away from U.S. cargoes. Global LNG exports are set to rise 18 million tons, but Europe’s dominance in absorbing new supply may stifle growth elsewhere.
Key Highlights
* Europe’s LNG demand surges 14 million tons to 101 million tons amid storage refills and lost Russian gas.
* Asia’s LNG demand growth slows to 2% as higher prices cool consumption post-2024 heatwaves.
* U.S. LNG projects and Trump’s policy shifts boost supply but risk China tariff tensions.
* China’s LNG imports hit record highs (79-86 million tons) on new terminals and long-term contracts.
* Global LNG exports rise 18 million tons, with Europe dominating new supply absorption.
The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is poised for heightened competition in 2025, with European demand growth tightening supply and driving price volatility. Europe’s LNG imports are forecast to jump by 14 million metric tons to 101 million tons this year, as the continent scrambles to refill gas storage facilities depleted by a cold winter and replace 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of Russian gas previously supplied via Ukraine.
Asia, meanwhile, faces slower demand growth, with consumption rising just 2% in 2025 compared to 6% in 2024, as higher spot prices bite. Rabobank projects Asian spot LNG prices to average 12.65/mmBtu, upfrom12.65/mmBtu,up from11.97/mmBtu in 2024. While China’s imports are expected to hit record highs (79-86 million tons) due to new terminals and long-term contracts, price-sensitive markets in South and Southeast Asia may see muted growth.
New supply from U.S. projects like Plaquemines LNG and Mexico’s Energia Costa Azul LNG will add 18 million tons to global exports, reaching 410.6 million tons in 2025. However, analysts caution that these facilities will only reach full capacity in late 2025 or 2026, offering limited near-term relief.
Political risks loom large, with former U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies shaping the market. His administration’s decision to end the LNG export permit freeze and threats of tariffs on Chinese goods could trigger retaliatory measures, such as China diverting imports to Middle Eastern or Australian suppliers.
Finally
Europe’s LNG hunger and Asia’s price sensitivity will keep markets tight, with Trump-era policies and delayed supply projects amplifying volatility. Geopolitics now dictate global gas flows.
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