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India is likely to witness below-average maximum and minimum temperatures in January, along with a higher number of cold-wave days, according to the India Meteorological Department. The cooler conditions are expected to support better yields of key winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas. Major wheat-growing regions across north and central India may benefit from prolonged cold spells, contrasting with recent years of above-normal temperatures that hurt productivity. Although rainfall in northern and northwestern regions is projected to remain below average, rabi sowing has already exceeded last year’s levels, strengthening production prospects.

Key Highlights

* January temperatures likely below average across most of India

* Higher cold-wave days expected in central and eastern regions

* Cooler weather supportive for wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas

* Below-average January–March rainfall forecast for northern states

* Rabi sowing up 1.1% year-on-year at 61.4 million hectares

Rabi crop prices may remain under pressure as weather conditions turn increasingly favourable for higher production across major winter crops. Expectations of below-average temperatures and extended cold spells are improving yield prospects for wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas, which generally limits bullish price momentum during the growing season.

According to the India Meteorological Department, both maximum and minimum temperatures in January are likely to remain below average across most parts of the country. Additionally, the number of cold-wave days is expected to be higher than normal, especially in central and eastern India. Regions such as Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar may witness one to three extra cold-wave days, supporting optimal crop development.

These conditions are particularly supportive for wheat, as Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh—India’s key wheat-producing states—benefit from sustained cold during the crop’s growth and maturity stages. Similarly, rapeseed and chickpeas require cooler temperatures to achieve better yields, making the current outlook constructive for overall rabi output.

In recent years, above-normal temperatures between January and March had adversely affected winter crop yields. This year’s contrast, with cooler nights and moderated daytime temperatures, improves yield expectations despite forecasts of below-average rainfall in northern and northwestern regions during the January–March period. Lower rainfall could increase irrigation dependence but is not currently seen as a major threat given adequate soil moisture in many areas.

Supporting the positive supply outlook, farmers have already planted winter-sown crops across 61.4 million hectares since October 1, marking a 1.1 per cent increase from the previous year. Higher acreage combined with favourable temperatures strengthens expectations of comfortable supplies.

With colder January weather and higher rabi acreage, crop yield prospects appear strong, likely keeping rabi commodity prices range-bound unless unexpected weather disruptions emerge later in the season.

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