U.S. and Global Rice Outlook: Supply, Trade, and Prices by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The 2024/25 U.S. rice outlook indicates slightly reduced supplies, increased domestic use, and decreased exports, resulting in lower ending stocks. Medium- and short-grain imports dropped due to slower purchases by Puerto Rico. Domestic use hit a record high, while long-grain exports saw continued weakness. Conversely, medium- and short-grain exports to Northeast Asia showed strength. On the global front, rice supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are all projected higher, driven by increased production in India, Indonesia, and Cambodia. India is set to surpass China as the world’s largest rice producer, marking a significant milestone. Despite these shifts, U.S. season-average farm prices remain unchanged, with global trade poised for a record year.
Key Highlights
# U.S. rice ending stocks lowered to 44.5 million cwt.
# Domestic rice use hits record 169.0 million cwt.
# Long-grain exports decline due to slow Western Hemisphere sales.
# India becomes world’s top rice producer for 2024/25.
# Global rice trade projected at record 60.6 million tons.
U.S. rice prices are holding steady this month despite a shifting supply and demand landscape. The USDA’s April outlook for the 2024/25 season leaves season-average farm prices unchanged, signaling a stable pricing environment amid tightening domestic conditions.
Supporting these stable prices is a notable rise in domestic use, which has reached a record 169.0 million cwt. The increase, entirely in long-grain rice, is attributed to updated data from the NASS Rice Stocks report. At the same time, medium- and short-grain imports are lowered due to reduced demand from Puerto Rico. However, this reduction in imports, coupled with the domestic surge, leads to a decrease in total supplies.
Export performance, however, tells a mixed story. All rice exports are cut by 1.5 million cwt to 95.5 million. Long-grain shipments continue to struggle, especially to Western Hemisphere markets, falling by 2.0 million cwt. This decline is partially offset by improved medium- and short-grain sales to Northeast Asia, up 0.5 million cwt, thanks to strong demand from that region.
Globally, the rice outlook is robust. Supplies rise to 715.3 million tons, with India leading the charge. At a projected 147.0 million tons, India surpasses China for the first time to become the world’s top rice producer. Global consumption also edges higher, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, and world trade is set to hit a record 60.6 million tons, driven by India’s export increase to 24.5 million tons.
Finally
While U.S. rice faces tighter stocks and mixed exports, global rice dynamics remain strong, with India’s production boom reshaping trade flows and bolstering overall market momentum.
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