India`s Cotton Output Seen Rising Despite Lower Sown Area by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
India’s cotton production for the 2025-26 season is expected to rise despite a slight decline in acreage, thanks to timely rains and higher yields. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) projects output between 325-330 lakh bales, compared to 311 lakh bales in 2024-25. While Gujarat and Maharashtra saw reduced sowing as farmers shifted to other crops, southern states like Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh reported strong gains. North India is also set for higher production. Traders expect early market arrivals this year, though weather conditions remain a crucial factor. USDA, however, forecasts a marginal decline in India’s output.
Key Highlights
* India’s cotton output projected at 325-330 lakh bales in 2025-26.
* Acreage fell 3% to 107 lakh hectares, but yields up 10%.
* South India may deliver record 1 crore bales this year.
* Gujarat and Maharashtra saw acreage decline as farmers shifted to maize, groundnut.
* USDA projects India’s cotton output at 5.11 million tonnes, slightly lower.
India’s cotton market outlook for the 2025-26 season indicates firm price support as production is set to rise on the back of higher yields, despite a slight dip in acreage. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimates output at 325-330 lakh bales, up from 311 lakh bales in 2024-25, as timely rains boosted crop conditions across all major growing states.
In Gujarat and Maharashtra, the top producers, some farmers shifted to remunerative crops like maize and groundnut, leading to a 3% decline in acreage to 107 lakh hectares. Yet, improved yields, aided by early sowing and satisfactory rainfall, are expected to offset the area reduction. Central India may contribute around 200 lakh bales, while South India could deliver a record 1 crore bales, with Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh reporting strong sowing expansions.
In North India, crop conditions remain favorable, with production likely to touch 38 lakh bales compared to 28.5 lakh bales this year. Traders expect early arrivals due to timely sowing, while higher minimum support prices and procurement by Cotton Corporation of India have encouraged farmers to maintain or expand acreage in several states.
However, international projections are slightly conservative. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) pegged India’s cotton output at 5.11 million tonnes for 2025-26, marginally lower than 5.22 million tonnes estimated for 2024-25, citing global trade adjustments.
In conclusion, overall, India’s cotton outlook appears positive with higher yields offsetting reduced acreage, though weather patterns and global market dynamics will remain critical for final production figures.
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
