Perspective on Gold by Ms. Riya Singh - Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency , Emkay Global Financial Services
Below the Perspective on Gold by Ms. Riya Singh - Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency , Emkay Global Financial Services
“Gold is consolidating above $3,300 amid subdued directional bias as markets weigh tariff extensions, and fragile geopolitical sentiment. The metal found support after April’s core PCE rose just 2.5% YoY, aligning with estimates and down from March’s 2.7%, reinforcing bets on Fed policy easing. Markets now assign a 25% probability to a July rate cut and 70% for at least two cuts in 2025. However, a firmer CB Consumer Confidence print at 98.0 and rebounding Treasury yields capped bullish momentum. On the geopolitical front, US-China friction—intensified by accusations of trade agreement violations—and renewed drone strikes by Ukraine on Russian assets have lifted safe-haven bids, though gains were limited by tentative optimism over resuming US-China talks. Technically, gold must decisively clear $3,372 to retest $3,434 –3,465, while support holds at $3,280. Friday’s NFP is pivotal: a figure above 170K may strengthen the dollar and pressure gold back toward $3,280, while a print below 100K could trigger a rally above $3,365 as rate-cut expectations deepen. Until then, gold likely trades within a $3,280–$3,365 band, with volatility rising midweek on Powell’s comments and ISM services data.”
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