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Gold prices are currently witnessing a sharp recovery, driven by a "perfect storm" of trade-related uncertainty and heightened safe-haven demand. Following a period of extreme volatility, the yellow metal has surged past the critical $5,150 per ounce mark in international markets and ?1,61,000 per 10 grams on the MCX. The primary catalyst is the Trump administration's move to implement a 15% global tariff surcharge after the Supreme Court blocked previous levies. This renewed trade friction, combined with escalating US-Iran tensions and a weakening US Dollar, has pushed investors back into bullion as a hedge against global instability and potential stagflation.

Key Highlights

* Tariff Chaos: Renewed US trade barriers and potential retaliatory measures have spiked safe-haven inflows.

* Technical Breakout: Gold successfully cleared the $5,100 resistance, signaling a strong short-term bullish trend.

* MCX Rally: Domestic prices in India have crossed ?16,100 per 10 grams, hitting new monthly highs.

* Geopolitical Risk: Naval deployments near Iran and stalled nuclear talks are adding a significant risk premium.

* Central Bank Buying: Aggressive accumulation by central banks continues to provide a solid long-term floor for prices.

Gold has demonstrated remarkable resilience over the last 24 hours, extending its upward momentum for a second consecutive day. After hitting a multi-week peak above $5,210 per ounce, the metal is currently consolidating its gains. In the domestic market, MCX Gold futures for April 2026 are trading near ?160,615 per 10 grams, reflecting a robust recovery from mid-February lows. This performance marks the sharpest weekly gain in nearly a month, as the "fear factor" returns to the forefront of global finance.

From a technical standpoint, the market structure remains decisively bullish. Gold is trading well above its 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages, confirming a long-term uptrend characterized by "higher highs." The immediate psychological resistance is pegged at $5,300; a sustained break above this level could clear the path toward the $5,500 mark. On the downside, the former resistance at $5,100 has now flipped into a primary support zone. As long as prices hold above the $4,850 structural floor, the probability of reaching new all-time highs remains elevated.

Beyond the charts, the fundamental landscape is shifting rapidly. While recent US PCE inflation data at 3% suggests the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer, the market is currently prioritizing "geopolitical insurance" over interest rate yield. Furthermore, the return of Chinese buyers following the Lunar New Year holiday has injected fresh liquidity into the market. With global trade negotiations between the US, EU, and India reaching an impasse, gold continues to serve as the ultimate diversifier against a fractured global economy.

Conclusion

Gold is positioned for further upside as trade-war fears dominate the narrative. While brief pullbacks are expected, the trend remains bullish with a target range of $5,300 to $5,500.

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