Commodities Commentary April 2026 by Manav Modi Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Below Commodities Commentary on April 2026 by Manav Modi Commodities Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Gold prices fell after marking a weekly gain as US -Iran talks fail over the weekend and escalation around the strait of Hormuz increase. While sentiment improved after U.S. President Trump announced a temporary truce, lingering uncertainties around the durability of the agreement—especially amid continued Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon—kept investors cautious. Conflicting signals around participation in negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sustained geopolitical risk.
However, talks between US and Iran leaders in Pakistan failed, post that President Trump mentioned that US ships have also created a blockade as a repsonse to Iran creating further concerns around the strait. At the same time, focus shifted to U.S. inflation data, where March CPI showed a sharp spike driven by surging energy prices, highlighting the inflationary impact of the ongoing conflict. While headline inflation rose significantly, core inflation remained relatively contained, offering some relief to markets.
However, elevated inflation expectations continue to complicate the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rate environment. As a result, gold remains caught between geopolitical support and macroeconomic headwinds, with price action driven by inflation trends, interest rate expectations, and ongoing developments in the Middle East conflict. Focus today will be on India CPI and US Existing home sames data.
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