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India’s cotton closing stocks for 2024-25 are estimated to rise 47% to 57.59 lakh bales, driven mainly by a sharp jump in imports, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) reported. Imports are projected to more than double to 39 lakh bales from last year’s 15.20 lakh bales. While cotton pressing remains steady at 311.40 lakh bales, total supply till September is pegged at 389.59 lakh bales. Domestic consumption estimates have been revised upward to 314 lakh bales, though exports are seen falling 36% to 18 lakh bales. By July-end, stocks stood at 96.77 lakh bales, with most held by CCI and traders.

Key Highlights

* CAI sees 2024-25 cotton stocks up 47% at 57.59 lakh bales.

* Imports expected to more than double to 39 lakh bales.

* Domestic consumption estimate raised to 314 lakh bales.

* Exports projected to fall 36% to 18 lakh bales.

* July-end stock at 96.77 lakh bales, majority with CCI and traders.

Cotton prices in India may face pressure as the Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimates a sharp rise in closing stocks for 2024-25, driven by surging imports. According to CAI, closing stocks by September 2025 are expected at 57.59 lakh bales, a 47% increase from last year’s 39.19 lakh bales. This build-up is largely attributed to imports more than doubling to 39 lakh bales from 15.20 lakh bales in the previous season.

Despite the significant import surge, CAI has maintained its cotton pressing forecast at 311.40 lakh bales for the season. Total supply by the end of September is estimated at 389.59 lakh bales, which includes opening stock, pressing, and imports.

On the demand side, domestic consumption estimates have been revised upward to 314 lakh bales, from the earlier projection of 308 lakh bales, indicating stronger demand from textile mills. However, exports are projected to drop 36% year-on-year to 18 lakh bales, reflecting reduced global demand and competitive pressures from other cotton-producing nations.

By the end of July, total supplies were 374.43 lakh bales, with consumption at 261.66 lakh bales and exports at 16 lakh bales. Stocks at that point stood at 96.77 lakh bales — about one-third with textile mills and the rest held by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), Maharashtra Federation, and other traders.

In conclusion, higher imports and strong domestic consumption are boosting cotton availability, but weaker exports may keep prices under check in the near term.

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