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Past Performance

Price Performance & Fundamentals: Gold tumbled over 8.5% to $4,020, marking its sharpest single-day fall since April 2013 after hitting a record $4,382. The slide was triggered by profit booking, a stronger US dollar, and easing safe-haven demand. Despite correction, gold remains up over 60% year-to-date, supported by global uncertainty, upcoming Fed rate cuts, and steady Asian physical demand—with Indian premiums touching decade highs near festival season.

Volatility: Volatility rose sharply following the record peak, reflecting a high-risk environment and wider price swings. Elevated intraday fluctuations indicate active speculative participation, suggesting traders should maintain disciplined stop-loss levels as gold attempts to stabilize near support zones

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI has sharply declined from overbought territory, confirming momentum exhaustion after the steep rally. Current readings indicate the metal is entering a corrective phase; however, oversold signals could soon invite buying interest near key retracement levels.

Vortex Indicator: The Vortex shows a crossover with the negative trendline now above the positive, signaling bearish momentum. This transition supports continued short-term weakness, although any reversal in the Vortex could quickly trigger short-covering rallies.

Ulcer Index: The Ulcer Index indicates rising investor anxiety after the recent plunge, implying short-term discomfort among holders. Historically, elevated Ulcer readings have coincided with market bottoms, hinting that panic phases often precede stabilization or gradual recovery

Elliott Wave Analysis: Elliott Wave structure suggests gold may have completed a Wave V top near $4,382 and is now retracing in corrective Wave A/B/C formation. The ongoing correction appears healthy within a broader bullish supercycle, where dips may offer long-term accumulation opportunities

Fundamental

Price Performance

Highlights

* Gold hit a record high of $4,381 (Rs.132,294 on MCX), driven by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand.

* Weaker US CPI data boosted hopes for lower interest rates, fueling the rally.

* Central banks bought 220 tons of gold in Q3, up 28% QoQ, led by Kazakhstan — WGC.

* Global gold demand rose 3% YoY to 1,313 metric tons, the highest quarterly total on record — WGC.

* Indian gold investment demand reached a record $10 billion, with ETFs attracting Rs.83.63 billion inflows — WGC/AMFI.

* Gold corrected over 11% to $3,890 as profit-taking set in and rate-cut optimism faded.

* US-China trade truce and Fed Chair Powell’s cautious tone supported the strong dollar, pressuring gold.

* India’s jewelry demand fell 16% YoY in Q3 amid record prices — WGC.

* Prolonged US government shutdown, stagflation fears, and geopolitical tensions (US–Russia) could revive safe-haven buying.

* Forecasts remain positive, with LBMA seeing $5,000 gold within 12 months and strong seasonal demand expected in Q4.

Technical

Volatility

RSI

Vortex

Ulcer Index

Elliott Wave

Conclusion

Price Performance & Fundamentals: Gold corrected over 11% from its record high of $4,381 to $3,890, marking its steepest decline in months as profit-taking set in and rate-cut optimism faded. The stronger US dollar, cautious Fed stance, and easing safe-haven flows weighed on prices. However, gold remains up over 60% year-to-date, supported by central bank demand (220 tons in Q3), global economic uncertainty, and strong Asian physical buying amid festival-driven Indian premiums.

Volatility: Volatility spiked as gold retreated from all-time highs, indicating heightened speculative activity and broader price swings. Traders are advised to maintain strict stop-loss discipline as intraday fluctuations remain elevated. Stabilization is expected near key retracement levels once speculative unwinding subsides.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI has dropped sharply from overbought territory, signaling exhaustion of prior bullish momentum. The current correction reflects normalization rather than trend reversal. Oversold readings could soon attract bottom-fishing interest around major support zones.

Vortex Indicator: The Vortex indicator shows the negative trendline crossing above the positive, confirming short-term bearish momentum. This crossover indicates continued weakness; however, a reversal in the Vortex may quickly trigger short-covering rallies if sentiment stabilizes.

Ulcer Index: The Ulcer Index highlights increased investor anxiety following recent price volatility. Elevated readings have historically aligned with panic phases that often precede market bottoms and renewed accumulation, suggesting potential for gradual stabilization ahead.

Elliott Wave Analysis:Elliott Wave structure indicates that gold may have completed a Wave V top near $4,381 and has now entered a corrective A/B/C phase. This ongoing retracement appears healthy within a larger bullish supercycle, where current dips could offer long-term accumulation opportunities.

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