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Below the Quote on Gold and Crude 07th Aug 2025 by Kaynat Chainwala, AVP - Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

Comex December gold slipped to $3,411.70 following early-session profit-taking but later rebounded to close above $3,430 as investors took advantage of the brief pullback. Gold prices received support from the weaker U.S. dollar which slipped to a one-week low of 98.1 amid signs of economic softness coupled with dovish commentary from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Market expectations for a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting surged to 95%, up sharply from 40% last Friday. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that gold bullion stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange-linked warehouses reached a record high, with over 36 tons registered for delivery. This reflects robust demand in China, partly driven by a pricing gap between domestic and international markets. Today, gold climbed above $3,440 as investors assess Trump’s threat of a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports. Also, traders remain cautious ahead of U.S. jobless claims data due later today.

WTI crude extended its losing streak to five consecutive sessions on Wednesday, falling to a two-month low of $63.6/bbl, pressured by rising OPEC+ output, softening global demand and ongoing uncertainty over sanctions relief amid U.S.-Russia diplomatic progress. Earlier in the session, crude briefly spiked to $66.8/bbl after President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Indian exports in response to India’s continued purchase and resale of Russian oil. The tariffs are set to take effect in 21 days. Trump also warned of similar measures against China should it persist in importing Russian oil, which could jeopardize ongoing trade talks. Today, WTI rebounded above $65/bbl, supported by signs of stable U.S. demand. The latest EIA data showed a 3 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending August 1, while gasoline and distillate stocks declined by 1.3 million and 600,000 barrels, respectively. Markets are also watching closely for a potential meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin next week.