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Below the Quote on Mr. Rajkumar Subramanian, Head - Product & Family Office, PL Wealth

Gold on the MCX is holding firm near Rs1,53,829 per 10 grams today, even as the US-Iran framework agreement, due to be formally signed in Switzerland on June 19, has pulled crude oil to a two-month low and eased the inflation premium that had been suppressing rate-cut expectations globally. Gold climbed above $4,300 an ounce on Monday, advancing for a third consecutive session, as oil prices declined and concerns over persistent inflation and potential rate hikes receded. The real driver here is not a safe-haven bid, it is a macro-liquidity re-rating: dollar weakness triggered by the deal is providing the primary support for bullion. The US Federal Reserve holds its first policy meeting this week under new Chair Kevin Warsh and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but the removal of oil-driven inflation pressure meaningfully revives the rate-cut narrative for H2 2026. For Indian investors, any rupee appreciation on dollar softness will partially offset global gains in MCX terms, so the net picture warrants calibrated optimism rather than aggressive positioning. Gold's structural case, central bank accumulation, fiscal stress, and long-term dollar debasement, remains firmly intact.

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