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The European Commission has lowered its 2026/27 production forecasts for major EU grains and oilseeds, led by a sharp reduction in grain maize output. Soft wheat production was cut to 124.4 million tonnes, while maize output was slashed to 51.9 million tonnes due to lower plantings and adverse weather. Barley and sunflower seed production estimates were also revised lower. The Commission reduced its soft wheat export outlook to 29 million tonnes and projected lower ending stocks. Meanwhile, maize imports are expected to rise significantly to 24 million tonnes as reduced domestic production increases the EU's dependence on overseas supplies.

Key Highlights

• EU soft wheat production forecast cut to 124.4 million tonnes, down 8% from last season.
• Grain maize output estimate slashed to 51.9 million tonnes, nearly 14% below 2025/26.
• Soft wheat exports reduced to 29 million tonnes, with ending stocks lowered to 12.9 million tonnes.
• EU maize imports projected at 24 million tonnes, up sharply from 19.1 million tonnes estimated earlier.
• Barley production cut to 51.05 million tonnes, while sunflower seed output lowered to 9.5 million tonnes.

Grain prices remained supported after the European Commission lowered its production outlook for several key crops in the 2026/27 marketing season, reinforcing concerns over tighter supplies across the European Union. The sharpest downward revision was seen in grain maize, while wheat, barley and sunflower seed production estimates were also reduced.

Supporting market sentiment, the Commission cut its forecast for EU soft wheat production to 124.4 million tonnes, down from 126.3 million tonnes projected a month earlier and around 8% lower than the previous season. Consequently, soft wheat exports were reduced to 29 million tonnes, while ending stocks were revised lower to 12.9 million tonnes, reflecting tighter availability.

The largest revision came in grain maize, where production was lowered to 51.9 million tonnes from 59.9 million tonnes, now expected to be nearly 14% below last year's output. Analysts attribute the decline to sharply reduced planting, rising energy and fertilizer costs, and multiple heatwaves that disrupted crop development across major producing regions. As domestic supplies tighten, maize imports are now projected at 24 million tonnes, significantly higher than the 19.1 million tonnes estimated last month.

The Commission also reduced its barley production estimate to 51.05 million tonnes from 51.7 million tonnes, compared with 55.6 million tonnes harvested last season. Sunflower seed production was revised down to 9.5 million tonnes from 10.1 million tonnes, though it remains above last year's 8.7 million tonnes. The latest revisions highlight increasing weather-related production risks and continued dependence on imports to meet regional demand.

Lower EU grain production and higher import requirements are expected to support global grain prices, while adverse weather and reduced acreage remain key market risks.

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