Sunoil Report As On 12th October 2026 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
* Sunflower oil prices dropped over 6% monthly after basic customs duty on crude imports fell to zero.
* Sunflower oil prices recovered toward 1,500 last week as Black Sea shipping disruptions constrained export availability.
* India’s sunflower oil imports fell 36% month-on-month to 103,000 tonnes in September, lowest since April 2022.
* Rupee weakness near 96.80 increased sunflower oil import costs and uncertainty around long-term export contracts.
* Sunflower oil premiums of Rs91 over soyoil and Rs192 over CPO discouraged Indian buyers.
* Southern Indian consumers shifted toward cheaper soyoil and refined palmolein amid elevated sunflower oil premiums.
* Indian refiners increased replacement purchases before Diwali and wedding demand, replenishing declining port inventories.
* India’s sunflower oil imports are projected to rise 30% to 3.5 million tonnes in 2026/27.
* MCX launched cash-settled crude sunflower oil futures on October 12, 2026, improving domestic price discovery.
* Russia shipped approximately 5,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in September, versus over 200,000 tonnes previously.
* Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports halved during August and September following attacks on Black Sea ports.
* Black Sea disruptions delayed approximately 60,000 tonnes of sunflower oil destined for Indian markets.
* Ukraine’s October–March sunflower oil exports may average 300,000 tonnes monthly, approximately 50% below normal.
* Global sunflower oil carry-in stocks reached a four-year low of 2.488 million tonnes, down 2.39% year-on-year.
* Global sunflower oil output is forecast at 22.4 million tonnes, expanding international crushing availability.
* Global sunflower seed production could increase 10% to 62.1 million tonnes in 2026/27, according to IGC.
* Russia’s 2026/27 sunflower production is projected at a record 21 million tonnes, up from 17.5 million.
* Ukraine’s sunflower production is expected to rise 11% to 13.5 million tonnes in 2026/27.
* EU sunflower production could exceed 9.5 million tonnes in 2026, rising over 9% year-on-year
Strengths
* Sunoil prices started to recover from lows make a last week around 1500 levels as Black Sea shipping remained disrupted.
* Russia shipped only about 5,000 tonnes of sunflower oil in September, compared with more than 200,000 tonnes a year earlier.
* Ukraine’s monthly sunflower-oil exports halved in both August and September as attacks damaged Black Sea port and storage infrastructure.
* India's sunflower oil imports fell 36% month-on-month in September to 103 thousand tons, marking the lowest level recorded since April 2022.
* Global Sunoil Carry-in stocks hit a 4-year low of 2,488 thousand MT (-2.39% YoY).
Weaknesses
* Sunoil prices dropped over 6% in a month after the government reduced the basic customs duty on crude sunflower oil to zero.
* A Rs. 91 premiums of sunflower oil over soyoil and Rs. 192 around over CPO led price-sensitive Indian buyers to reject sunflower offers in recent tenders.
* Traditional sunflower-consuming southern states experienced large-scale switching by refiners and consumers to cheaper soyoil and palmolein.
* Rupee hitting near lows 96.80 level, making imports costlier and created uncertainty for long-term export contracts.
* Global sunflower oil output is forecasted to reach 22.4 million metric tonnes, expanding international crushing throughput.
Opportunities
* MCX launches cash-settled Crude Sunflower Oil futures on 12 October 2026.
* Attacks on Black Sea ports disrupted Russian and Ukrainian shipments, delays to roughly 60,000 tonnes of sunflower oil destined for India.
* Market estimates cited at the Globoil conference in Mumbai suggest Ukraine’s October–March sunoil exports may run near 300,000 tonnes per month, about 50% below normal.
* Indian refiners stepped up replacement buying ahead of Diwali and post-monsoon wedding demand to bridge depleting port inventories.
* On the daily chart, the RSI stands at 32.32, recovering from oversold territory, while the MACD has generated a bullish crossover.
* Based on the five-year seasonal average, prices have gained an average of 6.76% in October.
Threats
* India’s sunflower-oil imports are expected to rise 30% to 3.5 million tonnes in 2026/27
* Global production of sunflower seed could increase to 62.1 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, approximately 10% higher - IGC
* For 2026/27, Russian production estimated at a record 21.0 million tonnes, up from 17.5 million tonnes the previous year – IGC
* For 2026/27, Ukraine is expected to see production rise by around 11 per cent to 13.5 million tonnes.
* EU countries to harvest just over 9.5 million tonnes of sunflower in 2026, more than 9% above 2025 and the largest volume since 2023.
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