Quote on Gold by Mr Karthick Jonagadla, smallcase manager & MD and CEO Quantace Research
Below the Quote on Gold by Mr Karthick Jonagadla, smallcase manager & MD and CEO Quantace Research
“Gold’s move this week is telling a more interesting story than the headline rally. COMEX futures have risen from roughly $4,090 on August 3 to around $4,350 on August 7, a gain of more than 6%. The trigger was a sharp repricing of the inflation-risk complex. Brent crude fell from $90.12 on July 31 to about $83.3 today—down roughly 7.5%—while the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped from 4.75% to 4.63% by August 4 before rebounding toward 4.67%. The dollar has not weakened materially this week, but DXY remains around 99.8, about 1.5% below its July 27 level near 101.4.
That distinction matters. Gold is no longer rising simply because every macro variable is moving in its favour; it is holding gains even as oil and yields partially rebound. That suggests the market is increasingly pricing a more durable easing of the inflation premium and attracting momentum and allocation flows.
Above $4,300, the test is conviction. A sustained hold keeps $4,350-$4,400 in play; failure to hold $4,200 would signal profit-taking. We would still buy controlled pullbacks rather than chase vertical moves. The next catalyst is whether US labour and inflation data validate that repricing or force yields and the dollar higher.”
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