IGC Cuts 2026/27 Global Corn Crop Forecast on Lower Output BY Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The International Grains Council cut its 2026/27 global corn production forecast by 4 million tonnes to 1.301 billion tonnes, citing lower crop expectations for the United States, European Union and India. US production was reduced to 401.3 million tonnes from 406.7 million, while EU output was lowered to 46.4 million tonnes and India’s to 50 million tonnes. Argentina provided partial relief after its crop forecast was raised to 69.5 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the IGC increased its global wheat production forecast by 3 million tonnes to 820 million tonnes, supported by higher estimates for Australia and Ukraine, despite unusually slow global wheat flows.
Key Highlights
• IGC cut 2026/27 global corn production forecast by 4 million tonnes to 1.301 billion tonnes.
• US corn crop forecast fell to 401.3 million tonnes from 406.7 million tonnes.
• EU corn output estimate declined to 46.4 million tonnes from 48.5 million tonnes.
• India’s 2026/27 corn production forecast was lowered to 50 million tonnes from 52 million.
• Global wheat crop forecast increased 3 million tonnes to 820 million tonnes.
The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its 2026/27 global corn production forecast by 4 million tonnes to 1.301 billion tonnes, reflecting reduced crop expectations for the United States, European Union and India. The downward revision comes as weather-related concerns weigh on production prospects in several major growing regions.
The IGC reduced its forecast for US corn production to 401.3 million tonnes from 406.7 million tonnes, well below the previous season’s 432.2 million tonnes. The revision follows concerns over crop damage from summertime heat. The US Department of Agriculture also recently lowered its US corn crop estimate to the same 401.3 million tonnes.
European Union corn production was also revised lower to 46.4 million tonnes from 48.5 million tonnes, while India’s crop estimate was reduced to 50 million tonnes from 52 million tonnes. These downward revisions point to tighter production prospects among major consuming and exporting markets.
The impact of the reductions was partly offset by stronger expectations for Argentina. The IGC raised its 2026/27 Argentine corn production forecast to 69.5 million tonnes from 63 million tonnes, providing additional supply to the global market and limiting the overall impact of the cuts.
In the wheat market, the IGC increased its 2026/27 global production forecast by 3 million tonnes to 820 million tonnes. Australia’s crop estimate was raised to 30 million tonnes from 27.7 million, while Ukraine’s forecast increased to 28.3 million tonnes from 26.7 million tonnes.
However, the IGC noted that global wheat trade flows remained unusually slow because of severe disruptions to Black Sea exports, creating a logistical constraint despite higher production expectations.
Lower corn forecasts for major producers tighten the global supply outlook, while stronger Argentine output and higher wheat production provide partial relief across international grain markets.
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