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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to find support near $4,080 and move higher towards $4,200 amid softer dollar and correction in US treasury yields. Further, cooler-thanexpected US jobs data would ease pressure on the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. Moreover, falling crude oil prices have eased inflation concerns, which may prompt central banks to alter their monetary policy outlook. As per the CME Fed-watch tool September rate hike bets just cooled down below 55% from 64% a day ago. Further, prices would also get support on strong central bank buying. Today, we may see a low volume trading session as US markets will be closed in observance of Independence Day.

• MCX Gold Aug is expected to rise towards Rs 148,000 - Rs 149,500 level as long as it holds above Rs 144,000 level

• Spot silver has been trading above the $60 mark. It is expected to extend its rebound towards $65 mark as long as it holds above $60. MCX Silver September is expected to rise towards Rs 241,000 - Rs 244,000 level as long as it stays above Rs 230,000 level.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade higher amid softer dollar. Further, easing concerns of monetary tightening would boost risk appetite. Furthermore, easing inflation concerns following softer crude oil prices would force major central banks to turn less hawkish in their stance, which could provide some help to the metal prices. Moreover, steady growth in Chinese manufacturing activity and depleting LME inventory levels would provide support to prices. Meanwhile, focus will remain on key US decision on import duty on refined copper imports.

• MCX Copper July is expected to move higher towards Rs 1290, as long as it stays above Rs 1270 level. Only move above Rs 1290 it would rise towards Rs 1300.

• MCX Aluminum July is expected to slip towards Rs 326 - Rs 327 level as long as its stays below Rs 335 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to hold support Rs 358 level and rise towards Rs 364 - Rs 366 level.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude is expected to trade with negative bias on easing tension in the Middle east and improved oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The supply flows has increased in last 1-weeks, as more than 10 mb/d oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil futures curve is trading in contango price structure, which indicates short-term oversupply. Saudi Arabia’s oil flows are likely to reach 90% of its pre-war level. However, Iran is struggling to sell its oil despite the US waiving sanctions. Moreover, growing bets of fresh round of production hike by OPEC+ in its upcoming meeting would also weigh on oil prices.

• NYMEX crude oil is likely to face hurdle near $70 and move lower towards $65. MCX Crude oil July is likely to slip towards Rs 6300, as long as it trades under Rs 6700 level.

• MCX Natural gas July is expected to slid towards Rs 300 - Rs 295 level as long as it stays below Rs 320 level.

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