MCX Gold August is expected to rise towards Rs145,000 level as long as it holds above Rs141,5000 level- ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to move towards $4150 level amid softer dollar and correction in US treasury yields. Further, prices may get support as oil prices dropped sharply following a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran over the weekend. Cooling crude oil prices could ease inflation concerns and lower the chance of a rate hike. Even with a drop in oil prices over the last two sessions, the chance of a July Fed rate hike stays above 35%, while the chance for September has risen to 80%. Ahead of this week's U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, markets will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's tone and the economic projections for more clarity.
• MCX Gold August is expected to rise towards Rs145,000 level as long as it holds above Rs141,5000 level.
• MCX Silver September is expected to rise towards Rs226,000-Rs228,000 level as long as it stays above Rs222,000 level
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid soft dollar and supply tightness. Supply concerns from Chile due to the deadly storm threatened copper production. Deadly storms and heavy snow in Chile forced temporary halts at major mines like Codelco's El Teniente. Further, falling global stocks in LME and SHFE would also support prices. The Yangshan copper premium climbed past $110 a ton, pointing to active buying interest. Moreover, easing geopolitical tension and softer dollar would likely to push prices higher.
• MCX Copper August is expected to rise towards Rs1345 level as long as it stays above Rs1325 level. A break above Rs1345 level prices may be pushed towards Rs1355-Rs1360 level
• MCX Aluminum August is expecte to rise towards Rs1345 level as long as it stays above Rs1325 level. A break above Rs1345 level prices may be pushed towards Rs1355-Rs1360 level
• MCX Aluminum August is expected to move in the range of Rs339-Rs345 level. Depleting LME inventory would likely to provide support. MCX Zinc August is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs384 level and slip towards Rs375 level
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to trade lower amid pause in military strikes between US and Iran, easing concerns over supply disruption in the Middle East. Over the weekend, US suspended strikes against Iran for a second consecutive night. At the same time, Iran also halted its retaliatory military operations in response. Meanwhile, Houthi forces attack on facilities associated with Saudi Aramco at the Red Sea ports of Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend would hurt supplies from the region and limit downside in prices.
• On the data front, a strong put base at $80 strike to act as major support, whereas on the upside $90 strike has highest call OI and likely to act as key hurdle. MCX Crude oil August is likely to slip towards Rs 7800-Rs 7900 level as long as it stays below Rs8500- Rs8600level.
• MCX Natural gas August is expected to slip towards Rs 268-Rs 270 level as long as it stays below Rs 285 level.
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