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Gold

Gold settled 0.68% higher at Rs154,506, supported by a weaker US dollar and softer expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike after largely in-line US inflation data. US CPI inflation eased to 3.4% year-on-year in July from 3.5% in June, marking the second consecutive month of cooling annual inflation, while an unexpected decline in July nonfarm payrolls further reduced expectations of tighter monetary policy. Markets now price a 31% probability of a September rate hike, down sharply from around 55% last week, with the Fed widely expected to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% policy-rate range. However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted persistent inflation concerns, potentially limiting gold’s upside. Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated as the US and Iran remain deadlocked over efforts to end their five-month-old war, while tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to provide a safe-haven backdrop. Physical demand in Asia remained subdued as elevated bullion prices discouraged consumption. Indian gold discounts widened to as much as $62 per ounce, the highest in more than two months, while China traded from a $2 discount to a $5 premium. India’s net gold imports declined 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes in Q2 2026, while domestic gold demand fell 6% to 131.4 tonnes. Globally, Q2 gold demand remained steady at 1,268.9 tonnes as central-bank purchases surged to 289 tonnes, five times Q1 levels, offsetting 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Technically, fresh buying emerged as open interest increased 0.33% to 9,798 contracts alongside a Rs1,040 price gain. Gold has support at Rs152,640, with a break below potentially opening Rs150,770, while resistance is placed at Rs155,665; sustained movement above this level could target Rs156,820.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 150770-156820.

* Gold advanced buoyed by a weaker dollar after in-line U.S. inflation readings tipped the scales in favor of an interest rate hold.

* Fed's Barkin said a rate hike is still an 'open question.’

* Traders scale back Sept. rate hike bets to 31% - CME FedWatch

Silver

Silver settled 0.20% higher at Rs235,924, supported by a weaker US dollar as recent economic data reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. US retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, sharply missing expectations of a 0.1% rise and reversing June’s 0.2% gain, while the retail sales control group also unexpectedly declined, raising concerns over consumer resilience. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 51 in early August from 55.2 in July, below expectations of 54.5, while initial unemployment claims increased by 9,000 to 209,000 in the first week of August, exceeding market expectations of 202,000. Softer producer and consumer inflation further reduced the urgency for monetary tightening, supporting precious metals. On the physical market side, Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surged 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes. London vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes at end-June, valued at approximately $53.1 billion. However, the global silver market remains structurally tight and is heading for a sixth consecutive annual deficit. The deficit is forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand expected to decline 2%. Industrial silver fabrication is projected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%, supported by stronger US buying. Global supply is forecast to decline 2% as producer hedging normalises. Since 2021, approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from stocks, maintaining the risk of renewed liquidity tightness. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 0.60% to 10,752 contracts while prices gained Rs477. Silver has support at Rs232,380, and a break below this level could expose Rs228,830. Resistance is placed at Rs238,650, while a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains towards Rs241,370.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 228830-241370.

* Silver rose as US dollar index fell as the latest economic data limited positions on a Federal Reserve rate hike.

* The US PPI inflation was unchanged in July, reinforcing bets the Fed will refrain from hiking interest rates next month.

* Fed's Hammack reiterates the need to raise rates

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.63% higher at Rs7,870, supported by heightened geopolitical risks after the United States threatened to maintain an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, raising concerns over potential disruptions to crude supplies from the Middle East. Ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran remain stalled, increasing uncertainty around regional supply flows and providing a floor to prices despite weakening demand expectations. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, while it raised its demand growth forecast for 2027. In contrast, the International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of a 1 million barrels per day decline, citing restricted fuel supplies and higher prices caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran. US inventory data remained bearish, with crude stocks rising sharply by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, against market expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel draw. Cushing crude inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels, while refinery crude runs rose 26,000 barrels per day and refinery utilization declined 0.3 percentage points. Gasoline inventories declined by 1 million barrels to 208.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell marginally by 10,000 barrels to 107.1 million barrels. Net US crude imports increased by 1.77 million barrels per day, adding further pressure to the inventory balance. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined sharply by 25.14% to 5,998 contracts while prices gained Rs49. Crude oil has support at Rs7,750, and a break below this level could expose Rs7,631. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs7,956, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices towards Rs8,043.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7631-8043.

* Crude oil gains as ‌U.S. threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, raising concerns about disruptions to crude supplies.

* OPEC lowered its world oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day in its monthly oil market report.

* The International Energy Agency also warned of a deeper global supply deficit, forecasting the widest shortfall in 2026 in five years.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 1.19% higher at 263.7, supported by forecasts for stronger demand as hotter-than-normal weather is expected to persist across the United States through August 29, increasing air-conditioning demand from power generators. Average US Lower 48 gas output rose to 111.3 billion cubic feet per day in August, surpassing July’s monthly record of 110.7 bcfd. Despite elevated summer temperatures, strong production and mild spring weather have kept inventories above the five-year average since March. US energy firms added 36 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week ended August 7, exceeding market expectations of 31 bcf, although below the 49 bcf injection recorded during the same week last year. Total inventories increased to 3.153 trillion cubic feet, 0.8% below year-ago levels but 6.7% above the five-year average. Projected Lower 48 gas demand, including exports, is expected to decline from 115.5 bcfd this week to 113.1 bcfd next week and 111.9 bcfd in two weeks, while average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants eased to 17.1 bcfd in August from 17.2 bcfd in July and a record 17.4 bcfd in June. The EIA expects US dry gas production to reach 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd and 94.8 bcfd respectively. LNG exports are forecast to rise to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although the 2026 forecast was slightly reduced due to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 11.23% to 41,289 contracts while prices gained 3.1. Natural gas has support at 261.3, with a break below potentially testing 258.8. Resistance is placed at 266.3, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices towards 268.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 258.8-268.8.

* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for more demand than previously expected with the weather expected to remain hotter.

* Average gas output rose to 111.3 bcfd so far in August, up from a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in July.

* Projected average gas demand would slide from 115.5 bcfd this week to 113.1 bcfd next week and 111.9 bcfd in two weeks.

Copper

Copper settled 0.18% higher at 1,378.3, supported by declining inventories and tightening supply outside the United States. LME copper inventories fell to 204,975 tonnes, down 48% since late May, while the cash premium over three-month futures surged to $256.50 per tonne, the strongest level since June 2025, highlighting nearby supply tightness. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories also declined 0.5% from the previous week. However, the Yangshan premium fell to $96 per tonne from $115 last month, indicating weaker Chinese import demand as elevated prices discouraged buying. Chilean miner Antofagasta lowered its 2026 copper production guidance to 625,000-655,000 tonnes from 650,000-700,000 tonnes after extreme rainfall forced a shutdown at Los Pelambres mine. Goldman Sachs sharply raised its forecast for the 2026 refined copper deficit outside the United States to 640,000 tonnes from 60,000 tonnes previously, reinforcing the tightening supply outlook. Chilean production remained mixed, with Escondida output rising 45.8% year-on-year to 111,400 tonnes and Collahuasi increasing 1.7% to 34,900 tonnes, while Codelco output declined 4.8% to 114,400 tonnes in June. The ICSG reported an 18,000-tonne refined copper surplus in May compared with a 145,000-tonne deficit in April, while the January-May surplus reached 221,000 tonnes. China’s unwrought copper imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes in July, while refined copper production increased 2.5% to a record 1.334 million tonnes. Copper product output fell 2.3%, indicating weaker downstream demand. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 0.25% to 9,556 contracts while prices gained 2.45. Copper has support at 1,369.8, and a break below could test 1,361.3. Resistance is placed at 1,384.2, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices towards 1,390.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1361.3-1390.1.

* Copper prices gained on declining inventories and tight supply outside the United States.

* LME copper inventories extended their decline to 204,975 tons, down 48% since late May.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 0.5 % from last Friday.

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.11% higher at 399.6, supported by tightening supply, production disruptions and concerns over reduced availability in China. Heavy rainfall and flooding across parts of China threaten mining and smelting operations, with production adjustments at a Southwest China mine expected to reduce August concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes, while maintenance at a Central China smelter could cut refined production by 1,000-1,500 tonnes. LME zinc inventories declined to 95,000 tonnes, their lowest level since December, while elevated cancelled warrants and declining on-warrant stocks increased concerns over a potential supply squeeze. The LME cash zinc contract remained around $60 per tonne above three-month futures, indicating strong backwardation despite easing from more than $73 a week earlier. Global mine supply also remains under pressure, with Glencore reporting first-half zinc production of 365,600 tonnes, down 21% year-on-year, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate output declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in the first half, with Dugald River contributing 87,000 tonnes, up 3% year-on-year. However, higher prices have weakened demand in China, while Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories increased 2.1% from the previous week. China’s refined zinc output reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% year-on-year, indicating robust smelter operations. The global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the January-May surplus stood at 163,000 tonnes, significantly above 44,000 tonnes in the same period last year. China’s central bank also reiterated supportive monetary policy measures to promote economic growth and financial stability. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased 13.79% to 2,995 contracts while prices gained 4.4. Zinc has support at 394.6, with a break below potentially testing 389.6. Resistance is placed at 402.6, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices towards 405.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 389.6-405.6.

* Zinc gains amid tightening supply and growing concerns over production disruptions in China.

* Global supply is also tightening, with Glencore, Boliden and MMG reporting lower production.

* LME zinc inventories have fallen to their lowest level since December, reinforcing concerns over near-term availability.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.50% higher at 348.55, supported by renewed concerns over supply disruptions in the Gulf and reduced alumina availability from Brazil. Norsk Hydro cut production at its Alunorte plant to 50% of capacity due to reduced natural gas supply, with the facility having annual alumina production capacity of 6.3 million tonnes. LME aluminium inventories have fallen to their lowest level since 1990, highlighting severe supply-chain disruptions linked to the Iran war. Emirates Global Aluminium reported that its Al Taweelah smelter was operating at only 18% of capacity and is expected to return to previous output levels in early 2027, while Australia’s largest aluminium smelter secured a $1.8 billion government bailout to continue operations. European physical premiums eased to $487 per tonne from a May peak of $621, although they remain 36% higher since the war began, indicating that supply concerns persist. Aluminium output outside China declined 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to lower operating rates at Middle Eastern smelters, while global primary aluminium production fell 1.5% year-on-year in June to 5.98 million tonnes, with Gulf production declining by one-third. Alcoa also reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions in Western Australia. Meanwhile, China’s unwrought aluminium and aluminium semi exports rose 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes in July, although shipments declined 9.6% month-on-month. Cumulative exports during January-July reached 4.04 million tonnes, up 16.7% year-on-year. Rising Chinese and Indonesian exports are expected to partly offset Gulf supply losses, with China increasingly relying on semi-manufactured exports due to its 30% primary aluminium export tariff. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 2.40% to 3,666 contracts while prices gained Rs1.75. Aluminium has support at 345.5, and a break below could test 342.3. Resistance is placed at 350.6, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices towards 352.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 342.3-352.5.

* Aluminium gains amid concerns over supply from the Gulf coincided with Norsk Hydro's announcement of reduced feedstock production.

* Norsk Hydro said its Alunorte plant in Brazil had cut alumina output to 50% of capacity due to reduced supply of natural gas.

* LME stocks of aluminium have slumped to their lowest level since 1990, attesting to the supply-chain dislocation caused by the Iran war.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 3.59% higher at 20,684, supported by tightening supplies, declining carry-forward stocks, deficient rainfall concerns and fears of El Nino affecting the newly sown crop. The market remains sensitive to weather developments as continued dryness during early crop growth could reduce yields, while lower-than-expected sowing expansion in key producing regions has raised concerns over upcoming output. Turmeric acreage is nevertheless expected to increase 16.05% year-on-year from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, potentially limiting the upside if favourable weather persists. Monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka improved in mid-July, easing drought concerns, while reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh improved water availability. Recent rainfall across major growing regions is expected to accelerate sowing, while re-sowing in North Karnataka has been completed following improved precipitation. However, the potential impact of El Nino remains a key risk for crop development. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, indicating a significantly tighter availability buffer. Meanwhile, stricter European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have resulted in rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, while demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric continues to support compliant stocks. India’s turmeric exports rose 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026, while cumulative April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes. Strong demand was recorded from China, Oman, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay, supporting the broader export outlook. However, farmer selling during the peak harvest period and improved monsoon conditions could cap gains. Nizamabad spot turmeric ended at Rs20,110.5, up 0.94%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased 22.10% to 30,475 contracts while prices gained Rs716. Turmeric has support at Rs19,898, with a break below potentially testing Rs19,114. Resistance is placed at Rs21,218, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices towards Rs21,754.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19114-21754.

* Turmeric gains amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact the crop

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20110.5 Rupees gained by 0.94 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled marginally higher by 0.07% at 20,725, supported by rapidly tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds despite stable overall physical crop supplies. Daily arrivals at major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started tapering, while blight disease in key Gujarat producing areas has reduced the quality and quantity of harvestable crop. Production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this season, down sharply from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Global production prospects remain mixed, as adverse weather has reduced China’s expected output to around 70,000-80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are estimated to produce 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes respectively. However, upside remains limited as farmers are actively liquidating stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while favourable weather accelerated harvesting and drying. NCDEX warehouse stocks have also increased, reducing urgency among traders, while large spice grinders remain cautious and prefer hand-to-mouth procurement. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also pressuring Indian export premiums. Meanwhile, European and North American buyers have returned selectively for residue-compliant and high-specification lots, providing some support to demand. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026, while cumulative April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. Strong shipments to Singapore, Oman and Argentina provided some relief but were insufficient to offset the broader decline. Unjha spot prices ended at Rs20,517.9, down 0.22%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased 14.74% to 7,170 contracts while prices gained Rs15. Jeera has support at Rs20,640, with a break below potentially testing Rs20,540. Resistance is placed at Rs20,810, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices towards Rs20,880.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20540-20880.

* Jeera gains amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India’s jeera exports declined 34% YoY to 10,713 tonnes in June-2026 from 16,322 tonnes in June-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20517.9 Rupees dropped by -0.22 percent.