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Gold

Gold prices settled marginally higher by 0.2% at Rs 143,106, recovering on short covering despite easing crude oil prices. Brent crude retreated from above $100 per barrel, reducing immediate inflation concerns, although geopolitical tensions remained elevated after U.S. President Donald Trump warned of "major military punishment" against Iran and its Houthi allies following attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Market participants are now focused on next week's U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. However, traders continue to price in an 81% probability of a September rate hike, reflecting persistent inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged but maintained a hawkish stance by leaving the door open for another rate increase in September. On the physical market front, Swiss gold exports declined 3% in June as weaker shipments to the UK and China offset stronger demand from India and Saudi Arabia. India's imports rebounded to 7.4 tonnes after the previous month's six-year low, although domestic demand remained subdued with discounts widening to as much as $56 per ounce due to elevated prices. In contrast, Chinese buying interest improved, with bullion trading at premiums of $3-$6 per ounce. London vault holdings increased 0.77% to 9,464 tonnes at the end of June, while Russia's official gold reserves declined by 43.5 tonnes since the beginning of the year. Technically, gold is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.41% while prices advanced. The immediate support is placed at Rs 142,075, followed by Rs 141,045. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 143,800, and a decisive breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs144,495, keeping the near-term bias cautiously positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 141045-144495.

* Gold gains after crude oil prices plummeted, lowering inflation concerns and the consequential expectations of an interest-rate hike by Fed.

* Trump threatened major military action against Iran and Houthi allies.

* Red Sea tanker attacks heightened geopolitical tensions, supporting crude oil prices.

Silver 

Silver prices settled 1.26% higher at Rs 222,138, supported by safe-haven demand as investors continued to monitor escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their potential impact on energy prices and global inflation. The latest military action by the U.S. against Iranian military infrastructure heightened concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping precious metals well supported. However, gains remained capped by expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could maintain a restrictive monetary policy for longer. Recent data showed U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest level since September 1969, highlighting continued labour market strength and reinforcing expectations of at least one interest rate hike later this year. Meanwhile, U.S. building permits declined 2.6% in June, signalling some moderation in the housing sector. Several Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, reiterated that additional policy tightening may be required if inflation remains persistent. On the physical market front, India’s silver imports plunged 94% year-on-year in volume terms to just 33 metric tonnes in May, the lowest since February 2023, following tighter import restrictions and higher import duties aimed at reducing pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased 1.7% to 28,082 tonnes at the end of June, reflecting healthy global inventories. Despite weaker Indian imports, ANZ expects silver fundamentals to improve gradually over the medium to long term, supported by its close relationship with gold. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.11% while prices advanced. Immediate support is seen at Rs 218,690, followed by Rs 215,245. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 224,215, and a sustained move above this level could open the way towards Rs 226,295, maintaining a constructive near-term outlook.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 215245-226295.

* Silver recovered as investors assessed developments in the Middle East and the outlook for US interest rates.

* Escalating US-Iran tensions and Trump’s tariffs benefit the USD, contributing to the slide.

* US Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since September 1969, pointing to a resilient labor market.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices declined sharply by 4.65% to settle at Rs 8,604 as traders booked profits after the recent rally driven by geopolitical tensions. Despite the correction, the market remained highly volatile as the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran continued to threaten global energy supplies. The U.S. carried out a thirteenth consecutive day of strikes on Iran, while President Donald Trump warned of "major military punishment" against Iran and the Houthis following attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The disruption has increased concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Asian buyers to explore alternative routes via the Suez Canal and around Africa. Additionally, the suspension of crude loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal disrupted a significant portion of Kazakhstan's oil exports, tightening regional supply. On the supply side, U.S. crude inventories increased by 2.01 million barrels against expectations of a draw, while gasoline and distillate inventories also posted gains, indicating softer near-term fuel demand. Net U.S. crude imports rose during the week, adding to inventory pressure. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to raise production targets by another 188,000 barrels per day from August, continuing its gradual supply restoration. However, actual production remains below pre-war levels as logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to limit exports. Goldman Sachs maintained its Brent forecast of $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, expecting geopolitical risks to ease later in the year while weaker Asian demand limits further upside. Technically, crude oil is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 16.9% alongside falling prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 8,408, followed by Rs 8,212. Resistance is seen at Rs 8,875, and a move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 9,146, although near-term volatility is expected to remain elevated.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8212-9146.

* Crude oil slipped dropped on profit booking after prices gained because of worsening disruption to energy flows in the Red Sea.

* Asian buyers have begun discussing rerouting Saudi crude shipments through the Suez Canal and around Africa.

* Adding to supply constraints, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended crude loadings at its Black Sea terminal after tanker attacks.

Natural gas 

Natural gas prices declined 2.15% to settle at Rs 277.3 despite supportive storage data, as traders booked profits amid comfortable supply conditions and a modest increase in U.S. production. The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed natural gas inventories increased by 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) during the week ended July 17, slightly below market expectations of a 35 bcf build. Total working gas in storage rose to 3.056 trillion cubic feet, standing 0.5% below year-ago levels but still 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating that overall supply remains adequate despite stronger seasonal demand. Weather forecasts continue to provide underlying support to the market, with meteorologists expecting above-normal temperatures across much of the United States through August 7. Hotter weather is likely to boost electricity demand for air conditioning, increasing gas consumption by power generators, which account for around 40% of U.S. electricity generation. According to LSEG, average U.S. gas demand, including exports, is expected to remain steady at 111.0 bcfd over the next two weeks. Meanwhile, average gas production in the Lower 48 states edged higher to 110.4 bcfd in July, while LNG export flows eased slightly to 17.2 bcfd due to maintenance at the Freeport LNG facility. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2026, with LNG exports also projected to continue expanding over the next two years. Technically, natural gas is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 7.32% while prices declined, indicating new short positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at Rs 273.6, followed by Rs 269.8. Resistance is seen at Rs 283.3, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 289.2, although near-term trading is likely to remain weather driven.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 269.8-289.2.

* Natural gas rose as a gas storage build was smaller than expected, and forecasters predicted hotter weather and higher gas demand.

* EIA said energy firms added 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended July 17

* Russia's production of natural gas in January-June rose by 4.7% year-on-year to 298 billion cubic metres.

Copper

Copper prices edged up 0.11% to settle at Rs 1,320.75, supported by tightening exchange inventories and expectations of additional policy support from China. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories declined 12.9% from the previous week to 69,610 tonnes, the lowest level since February 2024, reflecting improving domestic demand and tighter nearby supplies. However, gains remained limited as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, raising concerns over global inflation and slowing economic growth. Fundamentally, LME copper inventories remained at their lowest level since March at 276,775 tonnes, although available stocks increased after reverse warrant cancellations in South Korea and Taiwan. In contrast, Comex copper inventories climbed to a record 639,147 metric tonnes ahead of potential U.S. import tariffs. On the supply side, Chile raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to $5.90 per pound despite weaker mine output. Production at Codelco, Escondida and Collahuasi declined sharply on a year-on-year basis, highlighting ongoing supply challenges. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group reported an 18,000-tonne refined copper surplus in May, reversing April's deficit, while the market recorded a cumulative surplus of 221,000 tonnes during the first five months of the year. China's refined copper imports reached a nine-month high in June, supported by strong demand and lower domestic production. Investors are also awaiting further economic stimulus measures from China's upcoming Politburo meeting to support growth and industrial activity. Technically, copper is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.09% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs 1,312.4, followed by Rs 1,303.8. Resistance is seen at Rs 1,328, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 1,335, keeping the near-term bias cautiously positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1303.8-1335.

* Copper gained as SHFE inventories fell by 12.9% from last week to 69,610 tons, the lowest since February 2024.

* Output at BHP-controlled Escondida fell 17.6% to 108,800 tons, while production at the Collahuasi mine dropped 19.3% to 31,000 tons.

* Comex copper stocks rose to a record 639,147 metric tons ahead of a possible import tariff on the metal.

Zinc 

Zinc prices settled 0.37% higher at Rs 383.9, supported by tightening near-term supply conditions and improving manufacturing sentiment across major economies. Although China's GDP growth slowed to a three-and-a-half-year low amid weak domestic demand, manufacturing data from China, Europe and the United States remained resilient despite higher input costs, providing support to industrial metals. Meanwhile, zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined 0.8% from the previous week, reflecting healthy physical demand and tighter exchange supplies. On the supply side, production disruptions continued to underpin market sentiment. Glencore's Kazzinc operation in Kazakhstan is running at reduced capacity following an explosion, while Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru is gradually resuming operations after a fire-related shutdown. Concerns also remain over lower output from Boliden's Garpenberg mine following a seismic event earlier this year. Despite these disruptions, China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, highlighting the country's expanding refining capacity. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), the global refined zinc market surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the market still recorded a cumulative surplus of 163,000 tonnes during the first five months of the year. Goldman Sachs expects a modest surplus in 2026 due to growing mine supply but forecasts tighter conditions beyond 2027 as mine supply growth slows and demand continues to expand. Technically, zinc is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.62% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs 381.2, followed by Rs 378.4. Resistance is seen at Rs 385.9, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 387.8. The overall near-term outlook remains cautiously positive, supported by tightening supply and improving industrial demand.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 378.4-387.8.

* Zinc gained supported by demand hopes, pressure on inventories, and supply concerns.

* Euro zone business activity returned to growth in July for the first time in four months, driven by a rebound in new orders.

* The global zinc market surplus declined to 8,700 metric tons in May from 43,400 tons in April  - ILZSG

Aluminium 

Aluminium prices settled 0.94% lower at Rs 343.2, pressured by profit taking after Emirates Global Aluminium restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery following a three-and-a-half-month outage, easing concerns over near-term alumina availability. A stronger U.S. dollar, which climbed to around 101.50 amid elevated geopolitical tensions and expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy, also weighed on sentiment. However, losses remained limited as supply concerns persisted, with aluminium inventories in LME-registered warehouses remaining at their lowest levels since 2022 and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks declining 4.4% from the previous week. Fundamentally, Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes due to operational disruptions caused by Cyclone Narelle and contamination issues at its Pinjarra refinery, although operations have now stabilised. Global primary aluminium production fell 1.5% year-on-year in June to 5.98 million tonnes, with Gulf output declining sharply following earlier production disruptions. Japanese buyers agreed to pay a 13% higher premium of $395 per tonne for third-quarter shipments, highlighting firm regional demand. Meanwhile, China’s aluminium exports reached a record 711,000 tonnes in June, up 12.5% from May, while imports declined 17.4% year-on-year due to an unfavourable import arbitrage. Morgan Stanley expects the global aluminium deficit to narrow in 2026 before shifting into a surplus from 2027, although long-term demand is expected to remain supported by expanding data centre construction. Technically, aluminium is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 42.36% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 340.7, followed by Rs 338.2. Resistance is seen at Rs 346.0, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 348.8. The near-term outlook remains range-bound, with supply developments and macroeconomic factors likely to drive price direction.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 338.2-348.8.

* Aluminium dropped amid restart of EGA’s Al Taweelah alumina refinery following a three-and-a-half-month outage.

* Dollar index appreciated to 101.50, the highest level in about three weeks, amid expectations that the Fed will need to raise interest rates.

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.4% from last Friday.

Turmeric 

Turmeric prices gained 0.76% to settle at Rs 21,178, supported by a sharp decline in market arrivals, tight spot supplies and steady export demand. Total arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, significantly lower than 18,000 bags in the previous session, mainly due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra. Lower arrivals improved spot market sentiment, while structurally tight supplies and reduced carry-forward stocks continued to underpin prices. In the Nizamabad spot market, turmeric prices also strengthened by 0.5% to Rs 20,251.4, reflecting firm physical demand. On the fundamental front, good rainfall across major turmeric-growing regions over the past week is expected to accelerate Kharif sowing. Elevated prices are encouraging farmers to expand acreage, although market participants remain cautious as the eventual crop size will depend on the distribution of monsoon rainfall and the potential influence of El Niño. While overall supplies remain tight due to lower production and carry-forward stocks estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared with over 20 lakh bags last season, increased farmer selling during the harvest period and quality concerns, including reports of rhizome rot, have limited further upside. Export performance remained resilient despite a marginal 1% year-on-year decline in May shipments. Strong growth in exports to China, Oman, Yemen and Italy offset weakness in other destinations, keeping cumulative April–May exports broadly unchanged from last year. Rising demand for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from European buyers is also providing additional support to premium quality stocks. Technically, turmeric is witnessing short covering, with open interest easing marginally while prices moved higher. Immediate support is placed at Rs 20,832, followed by Rs 20,486. Resistance is seen at Rs 21,412, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains towards Rs 21,646, keeping the near-term bias moderately positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20486-21646.

* Turmeric gained due to lower arrivals, tight spot supplies, steady export demand.

* However, upside seen limited as recent improvements in monsoon rains have slightly eased concerns regarding the upcoming crop.

* Traders are closely monitoring whether the improved weather will translate into sustained production.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20251.4 Rupees gained by 0.5 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices slipped 0.31% to settle at Rs 20,980 as increased farmer selling and higher market arrivals weighed on sentiment. Farmers continued to liquidate stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while favourable weather across North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating market arrivals. The steady build-up in NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot procurement, and large industrial spice processors remained cautious, preferring to delay bulk purchases until prices stabilise. In the Unjha spot market, prices declined 0.35% to Rs 20,755.35, reflecting subdued physical market sentiment. Despite the recent weakness, downside remained limited due to tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds. Daily arrivals in major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline, while export-grade residue-compliant and high-purity lots remain scarce. Reports of blight disease in parts of Gujarat have affected crop quality and reduced the availability of superior-grade produce. Industry estimates suggest India's jeera production for the current season may decline to around 90–92 lakh bags from 1.10 crore bags last year due to lower sowing acreage. Production estimates stand at 42–45 lakh bags in Gujarat and 48–50 lakh bags in Rajasthan. Export performance remained weak, with May shipments declining 26% year-on-year and April–May exports down 22%. However, stronger demand from emerging markets such as Singapore, Mexico, Yemen and Poland partially offset weaker shipments to traditional destinations. Expectations of improved production in Turkey and Syria, along with cautious buying by domestic processors, continue to cap any sharp recovery. Technically, jeera is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 1.65% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs 20,860, followed by Rs 20,730. Resistance is seen at Rs 21,070, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs 21,150, while near-term sentiment remains cautiously range-bound.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20730-21150.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20755.35 Rupees dropped by -0.35 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views