China shifts soybean sourcing as US arrivals drop to zero by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
• China imports no US soybeans in October for second month
• Brazilian soybean shipments surge nearly 29% to 7.12 million tons
• Total October imports hit record 9.48 million tons
• Year-to-date US imports still up 11.5% on earlier 2025 purchases
• COFCO resumes buying after late-October US-China talks
China imported no US soybeans for a second straight month in October, even as total arrivals surged to a record 9.48 million tons on heavy South American purchases. US shipments fell to zero from over 540,000 tons a year earlier, reflecting high tariffs, depleted US old-crop supplies, and lingering trade tensions. In contrast, Brazil’s deliveries jumped 28.8% to 7.12 million tons, accounting for more than 75% of China’s total, while Argentina’s shipments rose 15.4% to 1.57 million tons. Despite the recent drought in US arrivals, earlier purchases boosted 2025 year-to-date imports of American beans by 11.5% to 16.82 million tons. Following late-October talks between US and Chinese leaders, state-run COFCO has booked over 1 million tons of US soybeans, with markets watching for more deals to meet Washington’s suggested 12-million-ton year-end target, which Beijing has yet to confirm.
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