Perspective on Gold & Silver by Mr. Ashish Rajodiya, Commodity Research Analyst at PL Capital
Below the Perspective on Gold & Silver by Mr. Ashish Rajodiya, Commodity Research Analyst at PL Capital
“Gold and Silver Slip as Strong US Jobs Data Revives Fed Rate Hike Bets
Gold and silver prices slipped in early trade on Monday after a stronger-than-expected US jobs report revived bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this month, denting demand for safe-haven bullion. MCX gold is trading below ?1,52,500 per 10 grams, while international spot gold has slipped nearly 1% to trade around $4,400 an ounce. MCX silver has tracked the move lower, dropping below ?2,37,500 per kg, in line with a similar decline in international spot silver to around $66 an ounce.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, nearly three times the Street's forecast of around 53,000, marking the strongest monthly gain since March. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, exactly as expected, while average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-on-year. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised June and July payrolls higher by a combined 55,000, reinforcing the picture of a resilient labour market. The upside surprise pushed market-implied odds of a September Fed rate hike to around 59-60%, up from about 50% before the release, and gave the dollar a brief bounce off its recent two-week low — even as the broader dollar trend for 2026 has remained on the softer side. Higher rate-hike odds and a firmer near-term dollar raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, explaining the pressure on both metals.
Adding to the mix, crude oil prices have climbed past $92 a barrel for WTI and above $97 for Brent, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, including reports of exchanges between US and Iranian forces near key shipping routes. This is a mixed signal for bullion — elevated oil prices tend to stoke inflation-hedge demand for gold and silver even as they raise input costs across industry, particularly for silver given its heavy industrial usage in solar, electronics and semiconductors. Despite the pullback, both metals remain well above last week's lows, which points to a pause in the broader uptrend rather than a genuine reversal. Physical and investment demand for gold has stayed resilient through the correction, while silver continues to outperform gold on a relative basis, helped by steady industrial offtake.
On the technical front, support for MCX gold is placed at ?1,49,000–1,47,000, with resistance at ?1,55,500–1,57,100. Silver has support at ?2,31,000–2,27,000 and resistance at ?2,43,000–2,46,000.
The next set of triggers for the market comes from the US data calendar, with the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index both due this week, just ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting later this month. These prints will be closely watched for confirmation of whether inflation is cooling enough to offset the hawkish signal from Friday's jobs data.”
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