U.S. Rice Supplies Rise, Stocks Tighten Despite Higher Production by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The USDA raised its 2026/27 U.S. rice production forecast to 158.4 million cwt, up 5.1 million from last month, as higher harvested area more than offsets lower yields. Average all-rice yield is forecast at 7,644 pounds per acre, down 102 pounds. Higher supplies lift domestic use by 2.0 million cwt to 148.0 million, while ending stocks rise to 36.0 million cwt but remain 33% below last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $14.90 per cwt, well above $12.50 last season. Globally, supplies and consumption edge higher, trade remains unchanged at 62.8 million tonnes, and ending stocks rise marginally.
Key Highlights
- U.S. 2026/27 rice production rises 5.1 million cwt to 158.4 million on higher harvested area.
- Average U.S. rice yield falls 102 pounds per acre to 7,644 pounds per acre.
- U.S. ending stocks increase to 36.0 million cwt but remain 33% below last year.
- U.S. rice season-average farm price stays at $14.90 per cwt, versus $12.50 last season.
- Global rice trade remains unchanged at 62.8 million tonnes despite slightly higher supplies and consumption.
U.S. rice prices are likely to remain supported despite an increase in projected 2026/27 production, as ending stocks remain substantially below last year and the season-average farm price stays elevated. The USDA raised production by 5.1 million cwt to 158.4 million cwt, with higher harvested area more than offsetting a decline in average yield. The all-rice yield is forecast at 7,644 pounds per acre, down 102 pounds from the previous estimate.
The higher production outlook improves overall availability and has prompted the USDA to raise all-rice domestic use and residual consumption by 2.0 million cwt to 148.0 million cwt. Projected ending stocks are also increased to 36.0 million cwt. However, inventories remain 33% below the previous year, limiting the bearish impact of higher production. The 2026/27 season-average farm price is unchanged at $14.90 per cwt, significantly above the 2025/26 average of $12.50.
By variety, long-grain rice production is forecast at 106.7 million cwt, while combined medium- and short-grain production is projected at 51.7 million cwt. Higher beginning stocks, resulting partly from reduced 2025/26 exports, also contribute to the improved supply outlook.
Globally, the rice balance sheet remains broadly stable. World supplies are raised marginally by 0.1 million tonnes to 735.4 million, primarily due to higher U.S. production, which more than offsets lower output in Peru. Global consumption edges higher to 542.8 million tonnes, supported by increased demand from China, Mozambique and the U.S.
Global trade remains unchanged at 62.8 million tonnes, while ending stocks rise fractionally to 192.6 million tonnes, with higher U.S. inventories offsetting reductions across several major markets.
Higher U.S. production improves availability, but stocks remain 33% below last year, keeping rice prices supported despite stable global trade.
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