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GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP

Gold prices held above $4,100 an ounce on Friday after surging more than 2% in the previous session, supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data that eased expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The softer labor market data weakened the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, boosting demand for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, well below market expectations, while a weaker private-sector payrolls report earlier in the week reinforced signs of cooling labor market conditions. Following the data, traders scaled back expectations for Fed tightening, with futures markets now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a September rate hike, down from 67% before the jobs report.

Additional support came from easing inflation concerns as crude oil prices remained under pressure amid improving shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and continued progress in U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh also noted this week that inflation expectations have moderated, while reiterating the central bank's commitment to maintaining price stability.

Crude oil prices held steady around $68.5 per barrel on Friday, hovering near pre-conflict levels as improving supply conditions in the Middle East continued to ease concerns over global oil availability. Progress in U.S.–Iran peace negotiations and the steady recovery in commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have largely removed the geopolitical risk premium from the market.

Supply flows also continued to normalize, with Saudi Arabia's crude exports recovering to around 90% of pre-war levels as more tankers safely transited the strategic waterway. The UAE has likewise restored exports to pre-conflict levels by utilizing both the Strait of Hormuz and alternative pipeline routes. The improving supply outlook has reinforced expectations of a well-supplied oil market, keeping crude prices under pressure despite ongoing geopolitical negotiations.

Natural gas futures settled modestly lower ahead of the long Independence Day weekend, with the market showing little reaction to a larger-than-expected storage build. The EIA reported an 87 Bcf injection for last week, exceeding both the 81 Bcf market forecast and the 64 Bcf five-year average. Despite the larger inventory build, prices remained relatively stable as traders continued to balance ample storage levels against seasonal cooling demand.

Gold

• Trading Range: 142900 to 149075

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Gold Mini Aug Fut at 146900-146925 SL 146050 Target 148480/149080

Silver

• Trading Range: 232855 to 249900

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Silver Mini Aug Fut at 236750-236775 SL 234080 Target 241900/242580

Crude Oil

• Trading Range: 6450 to 6825

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Crude Oil Jul Fut at 6520-6525 SL 6405 Target 6705/6775

Natural Gas

• Trading Range: 295 to 319

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Sell Natural Gas Jul Fut at 309.50-310 SL 315.8 Target 304/299

Copper

• Trading Range: 1268 to 1309

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Copper Jul Fut at 1281-1282 SL 1274 Target 1292/1295

Zinc

• Trading Range: 357 to 370

• Intraday Trading Strategy: Buy Zinc Jul Fut at 361.0- 361.5 SL 357.8 Target 365.05/366.5

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