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TRAI Sep 2025 data: R-Jio in pole position

TRAI’s September 2025 subscriber data indicates strong subscriber growth with 3.4 mn wireless net adds. R-Jio/Bharti/BSNL + MTNL gained 3.2/0.4/0.5 mn subs, while Vi further lost ~0.7 mn subs. Market share shifted marginally in favor of R-Jio, with active subscriber share (VLR ratio) of R-Jio at 97.8%, narrowing the gap with Bharti (99.2%). MBB net adds were healthy at 5.7 mn, while FWA (including UBR) net adds at 0.9 mn remain robust. R-Jio gained 0.3/0.4/0.2 mn 5G FWA/UBR/FBB subs mom. Mobile Number Portability (MNP) requests remain elevated at 15.1 mn, indicating a persistent churn.

Strong wireless net adds continue in September; R-Jio leads growth

Wireless net adds were strong at 3.4 mn in Sep 2025, extending gains from Aug 2025 (3.5 mn net adds). R-Jio was the largest gainer and added 3.2 mn subs in Sep 2025 (versus 1.8 mn CYTD25 monthly run-rate). BSNL/MTNL gained 0.5 mn subs (versus (-)0.1 mn CYTD25 monthly run-rate), while Bharti added 0.4 mn wireless subs (versus ~0.8 mn CYTD25 monthly run-rate). Vi continued to lose ground with 0.7 mn subs decline (versus (-)0.5 mn CYTD25 monthly run-rate). The subscriber market share shifted marginally from Vi/Bharti to R-Jio.

VLR subs: R-Jio gains share from competitors

India’s Visitor Location Registry (VLR, or peak active) subs base rose by 2.5 mn in Sep 2025, much lower than overall subs net adds. R-Jio was the biggest gainer with 3.1 mn VLR net adds, outpacing Bharti’s VLR net adds for the seventh consecutive month in Sep 2025. R-Jio’s VLR ratio remains at an all-time high of 97.8%, narrowing the gap with Bharti (VLR ratio of 99.2%). Vi’s VLR base was stable in Sep 2025, while BSNL/MTNL’s base increased marginally by 0.2 mn despite stronger wireless net adds.

Mobile broadband (MBB)—industry upgradation continues

Overall MBB net adds remained healthy at 5.7 mn subs. R-Jio gained 4 mn net adds in Sep 2025 (Bharti +1.1 mn, Vi +0.3 mn), including 0.4 mn UBR FWA subs net adds (R-Jio only). FWA base (ex-UBR) continues to exhibit robust growth with 0.5 mn net adds, with R-Jio adding 0.32 mn 5G FWA subs during Sep 2025 (+0.18 mn for Bharti).

Fixed broadband (FBB)—R-Jio extends lead

FBB subs (ex-FWA) increased 0.3 mn to 44.4 mn, with R-Jio FBB net adds increasing by 0.2 mn. Bharti’s FBB subs increased by 0.1 mn mom, while BSNL/MTNL FBB subs increased only marginally by 0.02 mn. R-Jio continues to be dominant in total broadband (including FWA/UBR) additions, with ~73% of total additions during Sep 2025, versus second-placed Bharti at ~24%.

Market construct to remain favorable for top two players

We expect the market construct for the telecom operators to remain favorable with a reduction in capex intensity and uptrending ARPU, aiding strong earnings and FCF growth. GoI review of AGR dues and BSNL’s network rollout remains the key monitorable in the near term. Bharti is the best direct play. Retain ADD.

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