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Quick Pointers:

* QSR demand remains mixed, Westlife lags while Jubi/RBA see steady growth

* Jubi witnesses muted October, however things picked up quickly in Nov & Dec with footfalls seeing MoM growth

* Westlife sees trends like Q2 with no improvement in demand, while RBA sees steady growth.

The QSR sector continues to witness slow demand across industry and segments despite festival season. The footfalls are lower than 3Q expectations and any rub off from GST rationalisation on consumer wallet is not seen so far. JUBI is witnessing QoQ higher footfalls and should sustain mid to high single digit LTL growth. Demand trends show steady SSG for RBA while Westlife is unlikely to show much improvement over 2Q26.

Jubilant FoodWorks (JFL) witnessed a muted start to the quarter; however, momentum improved meaningfully in November and December, driven by a strong MoM bound. The recovery was led by 1) higher order volumes from urban catchments supported by college festivals and localized events, 2) lower competitive intensity and 3) improving consumer perception of Domino’s as offering superior value-for-money relative to others.

Westlife Foodworld (WFL) demand is muted even as core offerings of McVeggie and McChicken continue to see healthy traction. West continue to recover while South remains a drag to overall performance. Premium and gourmet burger categories remain under pressure, as consumers increasingly prefer regional and local burger chains offering more value. Notably, select high-density urban catchments in western India continue to record healthy footfalls in December with higher ticket sizes.

RBA is witnessing steady recovery in 3Q26 with low single digit SSG. RBA had a good start in October; however, demand has failed to show an uptick in November and December has been decent. RBA is also witnessing rising competition from national players in value both national and regional players.

Channel Check – Jubilant Foodworks (Domino’s)

Overall demand witnessed a sequential improvement during 3Q26. October made a muted start; however, momentum picked up meaningfully in November and December, driven by healthy footfall growth led by strong traction in value pizzas. The balance of December, particularly the Christmas period, is expected to deliver double-digit growth, driven by healthy delivery growth amidst high volume of events and promotional offers. We expect Sales/EBITDA/PAT to grow by 14.3%/16.6%/26.3% YoY in Q3FY26.

Delivery Platform Disruption: Gig and last-mile delivery workers affiliated with major food delivery and quick-commerce platforms including Swiggy, Zomato, Zepto, Blinkit, Amazon and Flipkart have announced an all-India strike on 31 December, following an earlier strike on 25 December. The action is in protest against declining per-order payouts, aggressive 10-minute delivery targets that raise safety concerns, and the absence of meaningful social security benefits. Our checks suggest that the move had very limited impact so far given large mass of Gig workers and fragmented industry. We believe JUBI has an edge to gain from material disruption due to its own fleet.

Competitive intensity lowered: Domino’s continues to gain market share in tier-1 cities, with Pizza Hut’s performance adversely affected by heightened competitive intensity. Faster delivery timelines and frequent, aggressive discount-led promotions by Domino’s have emerged as key differentiators. Based on our channel checks, Pizza Hut’s average delivery time remains in the 30–40 minute range, compared with sub-20 minute deliveries by Domino’s. This material gap in delivery speed is increasingly influencing consumer choice, driving higher order preference toward Domino’s versus other QSR pizza chains.

October: Demand muted, sourdough pizza fails to sustain traction

* Overall demand remained subdued in October vs. September, with Diwali delivering a largely flattish response; YoY footfall decline was observed in majority of stores.

* Sourdough pizza witnessed encouraging traction in the initial weeks; however, repeat consumption remained muted, limiting its incremental demand contribution.

* AOV stayed range-bound at ~Rs450–500, remaining flat YoY as value pizza continue to drive order growth

November: Demand recovery with strong MoM footfall growth

* Demand improved meaningfully on a MoM basis, with footfalls registering double-digit growth

* Delivery channel saw healthy MoM growth, supported by festive-led ordering in colleges and institutional clusters.

* AOV remained flat MoM at ~Rs450–500, indicating that demand recovery was largely volume-driven, with incremental order growth skewed towards value pizzas rather than higher-ticket offerings.

December: Demand momentum sustains; AOV trends improve

* December sustained November’s momentum, with healthy footfall growth; store expect strong growth during Christmas week (25th-31st dec), driven by a regional and corporate events.

* AOV improved by ~9–10% MoM, led by higher online AOV (+Rs40–50) and a moderate improvement in dine-in AOV (+Rs25).

* Urban catchments outperformed during the quarter, while demand in Tier II and Tier III markets remained relatively subdued

* The Cheese Lava Pizzas witnessed a strong initial response along with moderate repeat orders, whereas Sourdough Pizzas saw initial traction but failed to generate sustained repeat demand.

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