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2025-05-10 02:09:27 pm | Source: Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd
Neutral Hindustan Zinc Ltd For Target Rs. 460 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Neutral Hindustan Zinc Ltd For Target Rs. 460 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

Better-than-expected performance; focus on reducing costs

* 4QFY25 revenue stood at INR90.9b (+20% YoY/+6% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR85.5b. Revenue growth was driven by high metal production, strong zinc and silver prices, stronger dollar, and strategic hedging gains.

* EBITDA stood at INR48.2b (+32% YoY/+7% QoQ) vs. our est. of INR44.4b. Growth was mainly led by better volumes and prices and lower input costs. EBITDA margin stood at 53% vs. 52.2% in 3QFY25 and 48.3% in 4QFY24.

* The cost of production (CoP) for Zinc fell 5% YoY to USD994/t in 4Q, led by better grades and recovery and lower costs with operational efficiencies.

* APAT stood at INR30b (+47% YoY/+12% QoQ) against our est. of INR25.8b.

* Mined metal production stood at 311kt (+4% YoY/+17% QoQ), driven by better metal grades and an increase in production at Agucha/Zawar mines.

* Refined metal production rose 4% QoQ (-1% YoY) to 270kt, in line with plant availability. Refined zinc production was up 5% QoQ (-3% YoY) at 214kt and lead production grew 2% QoQ (+6% YoY) to 56kt.

* Saleable silver production stood at 177t (+10% QoQ), in line with lead production and higher WIP liquidation.

* In FY25, revenue stood at INR341b (+18% YoY), EBITDA was INR174b (+27% YoY), and APAT came in at INR104b (+33% YoY).

* For FY25, HZ reported mined metal production of 1,095kt (flat YoY), supported by improved mined metal grades and recovery in mills. Refined metal production stood at 1,052kt (+2% YoY), led by better plant availability and operational parameters. Refined zinc production was at 827kt (+1% YoY) and lead production at 225kt (+4% YoY). Saleable silver production fell 8% YoY to 687t, due to a change in mining sequence and lower silver input from SK mine.

* FY25 Zinc CoP was at USD1,052/t (four-year low), down 6% YoY on account of better volumes and grades, higher captive coal/RE share, and softened input cost with operational efficiencies.

 

Key management commentary

* For FY26, HZ expects mined metal production of 1,125kt and refined metal production of 1,100kt. Zinc CoP is expected to be in the range of USD1,025- 1,050/t.

* HZ expects power costs to decline by ~10% in FY26, as the share of renewable energy is expected to rise to 30-35% in FY26 from 13% in FY25. As a result, HZ anticipates cost savings of USD10-12/t.

* FY26 silver volume guidance is ~700-710t. The implementation of lead and silver recovery technology at Dariba will generate 27t silver and 6ktpa lead per year.

* Zinc prices are projected to remain stable at USD2,800-2,900/t, lead at USD2,000-2,015/t, and silver at USD3,300-3,800/t.

 

Valuation and view

* HZ’s 4QFY25 performance has been better than our estimates, aided by the company’s focus on cost control. HZ continues to focus on improving production with tight cost-control measures. We largely retain our earnings estimates for FY26-27E and expect HZ to sustain its profitability. The favorable pricing scenario could also support the earnings.

* At CMP, HZ trades at 7.7x FY27E EV/EBITDA, and we believe the current valuation prices in all positive factors. We reiterate our Neutral rating with a TP of INR460 (premised on 8x EV/EBITDA on FY27 estimates).

 

 

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