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Revenue for 1QFY25 stood at INR 485bn, +13%/ +2%/ +9%/ +5%  YoY/ QoQ/ JMFe/ Cons due to 11% higher generation. The EBITDA came in at INR 140bn, +9%/ -1%/ +6%/ +2% YoY/ QoQ/ JMFe/ Cons. The adj. PAT came in at INR 55bn, +12%/ -15%/ +4%/ +4% YoY/ QoQ/ JMFe/ Cons. The plant load factor (PLF) for coal-fired plants stood at 80.39% v/s national average of 76.19% driven by higher energy/peak power demand (10%/11.5%). Given the revival in margin-accretive thermal capex (26GW capacity addition by FY32) and momentum in new growth areas viz. nuclear power (allotted 2.8GW) and coal mining (86MTPA capacity) , we maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised TP of INR 451 valuing at 3xFY26E Regulated Equity of thermal business and 12x FY26E EBITDA of RE business. 

* Renewable power: During 1QFY25, it added a mere 90MW of solar power capacity at Anta, Rajasthan. Earlier, NTPC installed 324MW of renewable projects in FY24. With this it has an installed RE capacity of 3618MW with another 9.2GW under construction and a visible RE pipeline of 24GW by FY32. The company plans to add 16GW of RE capacity in next 3 years (3GW/ 5GW/ 8GW during FY25/ FY26/ FY27). The management, in its Investor/Analyst Meet remained constrained in sharing its strategy and execution plans for RE given the proposed IPO of NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL).

* New thermal capacity addition: The management has guided for capacity addition of 26GW by FY32, out of which 9.5GW is under construction, 8GW is under tendering (Tender-01: 1x800 MW NTPC Sipta-III, 1x800 MW NTPC Darlipali-II; Tender-02: 3x800 MW NTPC Meja-II, Tender-03: 3x660 MW NTPC Nabinagar TPS, 2x800MW Gadarwara St-II, 3x800 MW NTPC Telangana Ph-II) and 8.5GW is soon to be tendered. The company is confident or ordering all the projects within next 1 months.

* Project execution: NTPC has under construction capacity of 21GW (Coal/Hydro/RE 9.5GW/2.3GW/9.2GW). Current thermal tenders are not attracting vendors except BHEL due to prolonged down cycle. The company is in touch with other industry players like L&T in addition to exploring other avenues like de-packaging of EPC projects to increase participation. The management believes that it has first-mover advantage in the new thermal capex cycle which will help them commission the projects early vs. the State GenCos’ projects. It expects to commission 2.0-2.5GW of thermal power capacity in next 4 quarters and 7GW in 3 years. Additionally, two units of 4x250MW of Tehri pumpedhydro storage (a 74.496% subsidiary of NTPC) are expected to commission within a fortnight.

* Installed Capacity: NTPC's installed capacity as of 30Jun’24 stands at 76,048 MW (59,168MW standalone, 16,880MW JVs & subs) which includes 62,194MW/6,511MW/ 3,725MW/ 3,618MW of Coal/Gas/Hydro/RE. 

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SEBI Registration Number is INM000010361