Buy GR Infraprojects Ltd For Target Rs. 1,605 By JM Financial Services
Robust order backlog to drive growth
G R Infraprojects’ (GRIL) 4Q25 adjusted PAT at INR 3.39bn beats JMFe of INR 2.3bn (consensus: INR 2.2bn) due to receipt of bonus, reversal of provisions on project closures and higher other income. Reported EBITDA margins came in at 17.5%. Adjusting for bonus of INR 475mn and reversal of provisions on project closures, EBITDA margins stood at c.13% (JMFe: 12%). Reported PAT at INR 3.7bn includes gain of INR 320mn (post tax) on sale of 1 HAM project to Indus Infra Trust. GRIL has a robust bid pipeline of INR 1.8tn (Highways: INR 750bn; Hydro: INR 500bn; T&D: INR 200bn. GRIL has received order inflows of c.INR 131bn (including L1 orders) in FY25 while order backlog to at INR 192bn (2.9x TTM revenues) as on Mar-25. Additionally, it is L1 in projects of INR 52bn. Currently, c.75% of the order backlog is under execution and entire backlog would be under execution by Dec-25. GRIL has guided for revenue growth of 10-15% with EBITDA margins of 12-13% for FY26E. GRIL is well capitalised to capture opportunities ahead which would drive 26% core EPS CAGR over FY25-27E. Maintain BUY with revised SoTP based price target of INR 1,605.
* PAT beats JMFe due to bonus, provision reversal and higher other income: GRIL’s revenue/EBITDA declined sharply by 12%/13% YoY to INR 20bn/INR 3.5bn (JMFe: INR 21.6bn/INR 2.6bn) due to weak executable backlog. Reported EBITDA margins came in at 17.5%. Adjusting for bonus of INR 475mn and provision reversals on project closures, EBITDA margins stood at c.13% (JMFe: 12%). Other income grew by 2.5x YoY to INR 1.39bn (JMFe: INR 1.2bn) led by distribution from Indus Infra Trust.
* Order backlog to be entirely executable by Dec-25; bid pipeline strong at INR 1.8tn: GRIL received inflows of c.INR 131bn in FY25 (including L1 orders). Order backlog stood at INR 192bn (2.9x TTM revenues) as on Mar-25. Additionally, it is L1 in projects of INR 52bn. Currently, c.75% of the order backlog (excluding L1) is under execution while entire backlog will be under execution by Dec-25. GRIL has a robust bid pipeline of INR 1.8tn comprising of INR 750bn in highways, INR 500bn in Hydro and INR 200bn in T&D.
* Guides for 10-15% revenue growth with EBITDA margins of 12-13% for FY26E: GRIL has guided for revenue growth of 10–15%, with EBITDA margins of 12–13% for FY26E. Backed by a robust bid pipeline, it expects order inflows of INR 200bn which in our case seems optimistic and we have factored order inflows of INR 150bn for FY26E. Total equity requirement for its asset portfolio stands at INR 28.75bn, which includes INR 10.75bn for its BOT project and it is to be deployed over FY26–FY28E.
* Maintain BUY with revised price target of INR 1,605: We have cut EPS by 3%/4% in FY26/27E factoring in lower revenue and higher interest costs. Having said that, growth should improve further once order backlog becomes completely executable by Dec-25. GRIL is well capitalised to capture opportunities ahead which would drive 26% core EPS CAGR over FY25-27E. Valuations are reasonable at 11x/8x FY26/27E core EPS (without interest income from subsidiaries and InVIT units) after adjusting for value of assets. We value GRIL’s EPC business at 14x FY27 core EPS and its asset portfolio at INR 679/share to arrive at revised SoTP based price target of INR 1,605. Maintain Buy.
Please refer disclaimer at https://www.jmfl.com/disclaimer
SEBI Registration Number is INM000010361
 2.jpg)
