Buy Godrej Consumer Products Ltd for the Target Rs. 1,450 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Performance better than expected
Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) released its pre-quarterly update for 3QFY26. Following are the key takeaways:
India Business
- Demand conditions in India improved progressively during the quarter.
- Management remains confident of a gradual consumption recovery over the next few quarters, driven by easing inflation and better affordability following lower GST rates.
- Standalone Business (India):
- Standalone business is expected to deliver double-digit revenue growth (est: 8%; 3% in 3QFY25), with close to double-digit underlying volume growth (UVG) (est: 8%; flat in 3QFY25), albeit on a supportive base.
- EBITDA margin is expected to revert to its normal level (24-26%), supported by benign input costs, cost discipline, calibrated pricing, and operating leverage (est: 24.4%; 22.7% in 3QFY25).
Segment Performance
- Home Care:
- The home care segment remained the key growth driver.
- The segment is expected to deliver double-digit value growth, driven by strong consumer demand and effective in-market execution.
- Personal Care:
- The segment is expected to deliver mid-single-digit value growth, mainly driven by a recovery in the soaps category.
International Business
- Indonesia:
- Competitive pricing pressures continued across key categories during the quarter.
- Early signs of stabilization are visible, and management expects improvements in revenue and profitability from FY27 onwards.
- GAUM (Godrej Africa, USA & Middle East):
- The cluster is expected to deliver strong and consistent topline and bottomline growth.
- It is expected to deliver double-digit revenue and profit growth in line with GCPL’s FY26 guidance.
Consolidated Business
- Consolidated business is expected to deliver close to double-digit rates in INR terms (est: 10%; 3% in 3QFY25) and double-digit EBITDA growth (est: 14%; -16% in 3QFY25).
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