Powered by: Motilal Oswal
2023-10-16 02:04:28 pm | Source: JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd
Buy Avenue Supermart Ltd For Target Rs.4500 - JM Financials
Buy Avenue Supermart Ltd For Target Rs.4500 - JM Financials

Avenue Supermarts

DMart’s Sep-Q report was broadly on expected lines. Visible acceleration in growth in average revenue per store (+6.5% vs 4-5% in recent quarters) notwithstanding continued weakness in Discretionary segment is encouraging. LFL growth of 8.6% (1H) for two years or older stores is reasonably strong; this, however, implies that newer stores are pulling system average growth down by quite a bit, which needs some working-upon. Other interesting takeaways: 1) Footfalls at stores continued to get better - 1H average represents a 5% improvement over FY23 level. 2) Basket-size was tad lower vs FY23 average. 3) Apr-Sep capex of INR 12.7bn (Standalone) was significantly higher than the spends needed for the 12 new stores opened (0.5mn sq ft) – nearly 2x, in fact. This implies that a lot more underconstruction stores are in the pipeline. On the flip side, Discretionary sales are still not picking up well and margin within Discretionary could also have dropped by a couple of %-points. Positives outweigh negatives at this stage, though. Worst in terms of revenue weakness appears behind and comps are also more favourable going forward. We remain bullish - businesses with such long growth runways are rare, in our view. 

    DMart’s Sep-Q report was broadly on expected lines. Visible acceleration in growth in average revenue per store (+6.5% vs 4-5% in recent quarters) notwithstanding continued weakness in Discretionary segment is encouraging. LFL growth of 8.6% (1H) for two years or older stores is reasonably strong; this, however, implies that newer stores are pulling system average growth down by quite a bit, which needs some working-upon. Other interesting takeaways: 1) Footfalls at stores continued to get better - 1H average represents a 5% improvement over FY23 level. 2) Basket-size was tad lower vs FY23 average. 3) Apr-Sep capex of INR 12.7bn (Standalone) was significantly higher than the spends needed for the 12 new stores opened (0.5mn sq ft) – nearly 2x, in fact. This implies that a lot more underconstruction stores are in the pipeline. On the flip side, Discretionary sales are still not picking up well and margin within Discretionary could also have dropped by a couple of %-points. Positives outweigh negatives at this stage, though. Worst in terms of revenue weakness appears behind and comps are also more favourable going forward. We remain bullish - businesses with such long growth runways are rare, in our view. 

    Gross margin remained impacted by overall mix and some price-rationalisation as well, it seems; comps more favourable from 2H: As highlighted above, weaker mix on account of lower contribution from General Merchandise and Apparels (23.2% revenue share in 1HFY24 vs 24.8% in 1H LY) led gross margin lower but lower salience itself doesn’t seem to explain the entire fall in gross margin vs year-ago level. We believe that management is likely re-working on the Apparels portfolio itself which could have had some impact on Discretionary margin per se. Employee costs (+20% yoy) grew at a faster pace than topline but was made up by good control over Other Expenses (+16.7% yoy). On a perstore basis, SG&A grew 5.7% vs 6.5% growth in revenue with the lower flowthrough being entirely due to lower gross margin. The decline in gross margin flowed through entirely to EBITDA which grew c.12% to INR10bn - tad below our forecast. Stripping out tax refund of INR 1.4bn LY, adjusted net profit grew c.12% yoy to INR 6.6bn which is inline with what we were expecting. 


Please refer disclaimer at https://www.jmfl.com/disclaimer

CIN Number : L67120MH1986PLC038784

Disclaimer: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investments in financial markets are subject to market risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Readers are strongly advised to consult a licensed financial expert or advisor for tailored advice before making any investment decisions. The data and information presented in this article may not be accurate, comprehensive, or up-to-date. Readers should not rely solely on the content of this article for any current or future financial references. To Read Complete Disclaimer Click Here