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Broad-based growth continues;

Outlook remains positive

In Oct’25, wholesale volumes sustained healthy growth across segments, supported by GST rationalisation and festive season demand. PVs and tractors recorded double-digit growth, and CV segment continued its recovery trajectory. 2W growth, however, moderated to low-single-digit YoY growth.

In PVs, domestic demand remained firm even as export momentum moderated. MSIL reported total volume of c.221k units, slightly below our estimates of 230k units, due to lower exports and sales to other OEMs. However, domestic wholesales remained strong at c.181k units (+11% YoY) and exceeded our estimates of 177k units. M&M’s UV sales stood at ~71.6k units, well above expectations of 57k units. In 2Ws, domestic volumes were broadly flat YoY, while export rose 15% YoY in Oct’25. For E2Ws, availability of rare earth magnets remains a key monitorable.

In CVs, domestic LCV and MHCV (ex-buses) sales increased by 13% and 7% YoY, respectively, while bus sales saw a healthy 19% YoY growth. Tractor volume registered 11% YoY growth on an all-time high base, supported by GST cuts and good monsoon. We expect tractor demand to remain strong, factoring in over 20% growth for FY26.

Based our channel checks, inventory levels remained low across all segments. Looking ahead, positive consumer sentiment, driven by GST rationalisation and recent formation of the 8 th Pay Commission, is expected to support demand momentum, particularly in the entry-level domestic PVs and 2Ws. CV demand is likely to maintain its recovery path, led by higher GoI capex and improved infrastructure activity.

PVs – momentum sustains in domestic market, exports growth moderates: In Oct'25, PV OEMs’ (total) volumes grew by 12% YoY, 4% above JMFe. Export volumes were flat YoY for key OEMs, whereas domestic volumes witnessed an increase of 14% YoY. Total volumes for MSIL stood at c.221k units (+7% YoY, +16% MoM), vs. JMFe of 230k units due to lower exports and sale to other OEMs. However, domestic wholesales (PV + LCV) at c.181k units (+11% YoY, +33% MoM) were above estimates of 177k units. For MSIL, PC and UV segments grew by 10% each on a YoY basis. Export sales / sale to other OEMs for MSIL declined by 6% / 12% YoY. M&M reported UV sales of c.71.6k units (+31% YoY, +27% MoM), vs. JMFe of 57k. TTMT posted total PV sales of c.61.3k units (+27% YoY, +1% MoM), 7% above JMFe of 57.5k units. Its EV sales stood at c.9.3k (+73% YoY, +1% MoM). However, its exports fell 45% YoY to 161 units (-87% MoM). HMIL’s total volume stood at c.69.9k units (flat YoY, -1% MoM), in line with JMFe of 69k units. Domestic PV sales declined by 3% YoY to c.53.8k units, while exports increased by 11% YoY to 16.1k units. Toyota India recorded total PV sales of c.42.9k units (+39% YoY, +38% MoM). JSW MG Motor reported domestic PV sales of c.6.4k units (-9% YoY, -5% MoM). Kia India domestic wholesales for Oct’25 stood at c.29.6k units (+30% YoY, +30% MoM).

2Ws – low-single-digit growth: In Oct’25, 2W OEMs reported overall growth (domestic + exports) of 4% YoY, 3% above our estimates. Domestic growth was flat YoY, while export growth was 15% YoY. HMCL / BJAUT / TVSL / RE domestic wholesales were -8% / +4% / +8% / +15%, respectively YoY. On MoM basis, domestic sales for HMCL / BJAUT / TVSL / RE were -7% / -2% / +2% / +3%, respectively. Overall 2W export growth was 15% YoY in Oct’25. HMCL / BJAUT / TVSL / RE reported volumes were +43% / +11% / +18% / -7% on a YoY basis. On a MoM basis, reported volumes for HMCL / BJAUT / TVSL / RE were -22% / +12% / -6% / -25%, respectively. Recovery in major export geographies remain a key monitorable. In the E2W segment, TVSL reported E2W volumes of 32.4k units in Oct’25 (+11% YoY, +4% MoM).

CVs - recovery continues: CV segment continued its recovery trajectory in Oct’25, with wholesales rising 12% YoY, 7% above our estimates. Total CV (domestic + exports) volume for AL / TTMT / M&M / VECV were up +16% / +10% / +14% / +13% YoY. In the domestic truck market, AL’s LCV / MHCV volumes grew by 19% / 11% YoY. TTMT’s HCV / ILMCV / SCV sales grew by 7% / 6% / 7% YoY. M&M posted 14% YoY growth in domestic LCV volumes. VECV reported 13% YoY growth in domestic LCV, while its MHCV volumes declined by 7% YoY. Overall bus volumes for key OEMs witnessed a growth of 19% YoY. Domestic bus sales for AL / TTMT / M&M / VECV grew by 33% / 12% / 24% / 14% YoY. Going ahead, we expect the underlying demand environment to improve, led by strength in the economy, continued focus of GoI on infrastructure development and steady fleet operator profitability.

Tractors - strong performance, outlook remains positive: Tractor volumes grew by c.11% YoY in Oct’25 on all-time high base, 15% above our estimates. M&M’s domestic tractor sales stood at c.72k units (+12% YoY). The company highlighted 27.4% YoY growth during September and October 2025, led by good monsoon and GST rationalization. Additionally, timely onset of rabi sowing and good progress in kharif harvesting are expected to support the demand momentum for tractor. Escorts Kubota reported domestic tractor sales of c.18.4k units (+3% YoY). The company highlighted that the overall demand outlook remains positive, while extended rains in select states could pose a risk.

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