IGI Logo

Nov’25 wholesales largely beat our estimates, showing strong growth after the festive season across segments. This growth is likely to have been driven by festive order backlogs and the normalization of stock with dealers after strong festive sales, as retail demand was not so strong in Nov’25. PV wholesales for the four listed players grew 22% YoY, led by MSIL (+26%, above), MM (22%) and TMPV (+26%, above). HMIL sales underperformed industry with 9.1% YoY growth (in line). In 2Ws, TVS (30% YoY) and HMCL (+32% YoY) sales were ahead of our estimates. On the other hand, RE (+22%) and BJAUT (+3%) sales came in line with our estimates. The key positive surprise was a strong 30% YoY growth posted by the top-three CV companies. In tractors, MM beat our estimates with 32% growth, while Escorts posted in-line growth of 18%. The next key monitorable would be retail demand trends from Jan’26 onward. We expect the demand uptick to remain intact going forward given the positive consumption sentiment. With a recovery in demand, we expect discounts to gradually come down after the festive season. Within OEMs, MSIL, MM and TVS are our top picks.

PVs (mixed): Overall, PV wholesale volumes grew ~22% YoY for the four listed players. MSIL, TMPV and MM reported healthy double-digit growth. MSIL sales rose 26% YoY to 229k units (well above estimate of 199k units). While domestic sales were up ~20% YoY, exports surged ~61%. For MSIL, UV sales grew 23% YoY and car sales rose 19% YoY. MM UV sales grew 22% YoY to 56.3k units, broadly in line with our estimate. TMPV posted healthy ~26% YoY growth in PVs to 59k units, ahead of our estimate of 56k units. Hyundai sales grew 9.1% YoY to 67k units, in line with our estimates. The new Hyundai Venue garnered ~32k bookings within the first month of its launch. On YTD basis, the listed PV players have posted 6% YoY growth.

2Ws (mixed): TVSL delivered strong 30% YoY growth to 520k units (ahead of our estimate of 477k). While motorcycles grew 34% YoY, scooters were up 27% YoY. 3Ws surged nearly 2.5x YoY to 21,667 units due to a low base. RE posted 22.4% YoY growth to 101k units (in line with our estimates). BJAUT sales also came in line with our estimates at 453k units, up 8% YoY. Growth was largely driven by 3Ws, which saw a strong 37% YoY growth. Export growth momentum was stable at ~14% YoY to 206k units, though domestic business posted muted 3% YoY growth. HMCL posted robust 32% YoY growth in wholesales to ~605k units (ahead of our estimate of 513k units). HMCL’s retails have grown 26% YoY during Oct-Nov’25.

CVs (above): The three listed players posted a strong ~30% YoY growth in CV sales over a low base of last year. TMCV, AL and VECV beat our estimates. TMCV posted 28.6% YoY growth in CV sales to 35.5k units. While domestic sales were up 25% YoY, exports jumped 92% YoY. VECV outperformed the industry with 37.3% YoY growth to 7.7k units. Ashok Leyland sales rose 29.2% YoY over a low base to 18.2k units. On YTD basis, the top three CV players have posted 7.9% YoY growth.

Tractors (mixed): The two listed tractor players posted ~29% YoY growth in tractor volumes, primarily driven by strong Kharif output and an increased Rabi sowing on the back of healthy reservoir levels that reinforced farmer sentiment. Additionally, supportive farm economics from government incentives like GST rate reductions and higher MSPs enhanced farm mechanization affordability.MM posted strong 32% YoY growth in tractors to 44k units, ahead of our estimates of 37k units. On the other hand, Escorts posted ~18% YoY growth in tractors to 10.6k units, in line with our estimates. Tractor sales for these two companies on YTD basis are up ~18% YoY.

Valuation and view: Nov’25 wholesales were well ahead of our estimates across key segments. This growth is likely to have been driven by the festive order backlog and the normalization of stock levels after the festive season, as retail demand was not so strong in Nov’25. The key positive is that demand has been broad-based across segments. We expect the demand uptick to remain intact going forward given the positive consumption sentiment. The next key monitorable would be retail demand trends from Jan’26 onward. With a recovery in demand, we expect discounts to gradually come down after the festive season. Within OEMs, MSIL, MM and TVS are our top picks.

For More Research Reports : Click Here 

For More Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd Disclaimer
http://www.motilaloswal.com/MOSLdisclaimer/disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number is INH000000412