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We monitor monthly indicators for assessing freight and cargo movements across multiple modes of transportation. GST e-way bill volumes continued to track a healthy trajectory, growing 2.8%/19% MoM/YoY in May-25 (up 21% YoY on 3M rolling average basis). Truck freight rates saw a modest uptick (up 2% MoM) despite stable diesel prices, suggesting that operators are trying to pass on inflationary cost pressures; this bodes well for VRLL, which had hiked rates in Q2FY25. Major ports volume growth firmed up in May (up 4.3% YoY in May-25, in line with growth seen during FY25), while container volume grew 11% YoY (vs 22% growth in APSEZ’s ports). Container shipping rates have seen a steep rise in Jun-25 (up 70% MoM, albeit still ~40% below the highs seen in Jul-24) on the back of temporary pause in tariffs by the US.

Healthy momentum continues in E-way bills; freight rates see uptick

GST e-way bill volumes registered healthy growth in May-25, of 2.8%/18.9% on MoM/YoY basis, respectively. Intra-state volumes grew 4%/19% MoM/YoY, respectively, while inter-state volumes were flat/up 19% on MoM/YoY basis. Manufacturing PMI in May-25, though healthy at 57.6, saw a marginal dip MoM from a higher base of Apr-25 (58.2). While e-way volumes suggest improved momentum for the overall industry, commentary from organized players (excl Delhivery) has pointed toward a muted H1FY26. Average freight rates on trunk routes (Delhi–Mumbai, Delhi–Chennai, and Delhi–Kolkata) saw a healthy broad-based uptick of 2%/3% MoM/YoY, respectively. Diesel prices were stable on both, sequential and YoY basis. ATF prices have been on a downtrend since Apr-25, declining 4% MoM in May-25 and 16% YoY, and are now 28% lower than the peaks seen during Oct-23.

Container growth continues to outpace overall port volumes

Major ports volume growth firmed up in May-25 (up 4.3% YoY, in line with growth witnessed during FY25), while container volumes grew at a healthy clip (up 11% YoY, albeit below the 22% YoY growth at APSEZ’s ports). JNPT maintained its pole position in container traffic, with market share of 44%, though declining by 200bps MoM and up by 80bps YoY. In terms of commodities, iron ore volumes grew the most, increasing 10% YoY, followed by 7% YoY growth in POL volumes. Additionally, the ‘other cargo’ traffic saw healthy YoY growth of 15%. The ‘other liquids’ traffic was down 49% YoY, and total coal traffic saw a decline of 3% YoY due to thermal coal traffic decreasing 5% YoY, offsetting the 3% YoY increase in coking coal traffic. Total fertilizer volumes also declined, by 3% YoY, owing to the 34% dip in finished fertilizer volumes, partially offset by 28% growth in fertilizer raw materials. Among major ports, Chennai, Kolkata, JNPT, and Mumbai saw the strongest YoY volume growth, of 21%, 14%, 10%, and 9%, respectively. Paradip, Ennore, New Mangalore, and Kandla also recorded growth, of 7%, 5%, 7%, and 3%. However, Visakhapatnam and Cochin ports declined YoY, by 12% and 10%, respectively.

Container shipping rates see a sharp surge in June

The Drewry WCI Index has surged 70% over the past month, particularly from start Jun25 (USD3,543 per 40ft container, as on 12-Jun-2025), owing to resumption of US-bound traffic after the pause on import tariffs by the US. However, the index is still ~40% below the peak seen in Jul-24. Shipping rates are expected to stabilize except on the transpacific route, where forward bookings from China face uncertainty. However, industry reports suggest that continued port congestions due to potential tariff changes and geopolitical unrest disrupting trade routes pose near-term risk for container spot rates.

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