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RIL reported in-line Q4FY25 consol EBITDA of Rs438bn, while PAT at Rs194bn beat our estimate by 9%, on higher Other Income. Retail reported a healthy 16% revenue and 14% EBITDA growth YoY, while Jio logged a 2% EBITDA beat with 6.1mn subscriber additions QoQ. O2C was in line though up 5% QoQ, supported by domestic sales. Net debt was up 1% each YoY and QoQ, at Rs1.17trn, with Q4 capex up QoQ at Rs360bn. The mgmt announced commissioning of the first line of solar PV gigafactory producing HJT modules, and ramp up to an integrated 10GWpa capacity is under way (will take 1-1.5 years). The battery business would commence from early-CY26. Petchem expansions are under way, with earnings contribution from FY28. 5G monetization should support Jio ARPU growth. Retail network restructuring is largely done and network addition would accelerate ahead. We maintain our positive view and raise FY26-27E earnings 3-5% each for various segments. We retain BUY with Mar-26E TP of Rs1,450.

Key result highlights: O2C improved QoQ, led by better marketing margins, and crude and ethane sourcing optimization. O2C feedstock/sales stood at 20.3mmt/17.9mmt, largely flat QoQ, whereas EBITDA/mt rose 2% QoQ to USD86. Upstream EBITDA declined 8% QoQ to Rs51.2bn, as KG Basin gas volumes were down 5% to 26.7mmscmd and opex rose amid 4% higher realizations. Jio added 6.1mn of net subs (vs Emkay: 2.5mn), and ARPU was marginally higher at Rs206.2 (up 1% QoQ). Jio’s EBITDA rose 4% QoQ to Rs172.8bn. Network opex rose 1% QoQ to Rs84.1bn. Retail EBITDA at Rs67.2bn was up 14% YoY, with revenue increasing 16% YoY (a 5% beat). Net store addition was 238, with retail area largely flat QoQ at 77.4mn sqft. RIL’s other income rose 8% YoY to Rs49.1bn (a 19% beat), while share of MI stood at Rs32.0bn vs Rs33.9bn QoQ. ETR was lower, at 22.9%, and interest-depreciation was also below estimate. For FY25, RIL’s EBITDA/PAT rose 2%/flat at Rs1.65/0.7trn. Capex was Rs1.31trn.

Management KTAs: Refining outlook stable, but chemical margin recovery may take 4- 6 quarters. Will look at sourcing more ethane from US which is economical. Three more VLECs will come by 2026-end, coinciding with petchem expansion. Has started solar PV module production with 1.0-1.5 GWpa first line being commissioned. In a few quarters, cell manufacturing will start. Best-in-class HJT tech is used with 720wp capacity. Q4FY25 KG gas production was lower due to maintenance activity, though it is back to 28mmscmd now. The fields could see a natural 6-7% decline in our view; RIL is looking to address this. Retail focus is on further improvement with thrust on express deliveries (under 30mins) and via leveraging its physical presence, wider assortment, best pricing, free delivery. Some more pass-through of the last Jio tariff hike on ARPU is pending.

Valuation: We value RIL on SOTP basis, with core segments using Mar-27E EV/EBITDA and Upstream/New Energy/Other segments using DCF+premium/EV-IC/EV-EBITDA methodologies. We largely maintain the key segmental target multiples. Key risks: Adverse commodity/currency, B2C competition, delay in monetization of ventures, and policy and new business risks.

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