IGI Logo

PAX increases on robust demand; IndiGo share at 60%+

* Domestic air passenger (PAX) traffic grew ~12% YoY in Nov’24 to 14.3m (up ~4% MoM). It was above pre-COVID levels. Passenger growth increased for IndiGo, SpiceJet, and Akasa MoM. It was flat MoM for Air India group.

* Average domestic Passenger Load Factor (PLF) increased 510bp MoM in Nov’24. PLF rose for all the airlines MoM. The On-Time Performance (OTP) increased 90bp MoM for airlines; the domestic average was 66.7% in Nov’24. The cancellation rate increased 10bp to 1.1% in Nov’24.

* IndiGo’s market share improved following the collapse of GoFirst, which ceased operations in May’23. It has maintained 60%+ share since then. IndiGo’s market share has been increasing steadily during the past five months.

India's domestic air PAX and market share

* India's domestic air PAX increased ~12% YoY (increased ~4% MoM) to 14.3m in Nov’24. Domestic PAX stood at 9.1m for IndiGo (up 15% YoY), 4m for AI group (up 14% YoY), 0.7m for Akasa (up 26% YoY), and 0.4m for SpiceJet (down 29% YoY).

* Domestic market share stood at 63.6% for IndiGo (up 180bp YoY), 28% for the Air India (AI) group (up 50bp YoY), 4.7% for Akasa (up 50bp YoY), and 3.1% for SpiceJet (down 180bp YoY).

Domestic industry’s PLF and OTP

* Domestic PLF stood at 78.6% in Nov’24 (73.6% in Oct’24 and 83.1% Nov’23). PLF stood at 90.3% for IndiGo (up 470bp YoY), 87.7% for the AI group (up 120bp YoY), 92.6% for Akasa (up 340bp YoY), and 87.9% for SpiceJet (down 290bp YoY).

* The average OTP for domestic airlines at the top four airports was at 66.7% (down 30bp YoY/up 90bp MoM). OTP stood at 74.5% for IndiGo (down 300bp YoY), 69.1% for Air India group (up 140bp YoY), 66.4% for Akasa (down ~12pp YoY), and 62.5% for SpiceJet (up ~21pp YoY).

Other highlights

* The Air Turbine Fuel (ATF) price for Dec’24’TD is at INR91,857/klit (down 13% YoY/up 1% MoM). For 3QFY25’TD, the ATF price stood at INR89,998/klit (down 6% QoQ and down 20% YoY), while for 2QFY25, it stood at INR95,868/klit (down 3% QoQ). Currently, Brent crude stands at ~USD72/bbl (average of USD74/bbl in Dec’24 and USD74.8/bbl in 3QFY25’TD).

For More Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd Disclaimer
http://www.motilaloswal.com/MOSLdisclaimer/disclaimer.html