Auto Monthly Sales Volume by Axis Securities
Strong Growth Across 2W, 3W, PV, CV & Tractor Segments
Over Apr–Nov’26, Over Apr–Dec’26, cumulative 2W domestic sales grew by 10% YoY to 84.2 Lc units, supported by strong performances from TVS (+18%), RE (+26%), and Hero (+3%). In contrast, 2W exports reflected improved traction across global markets. On a YTD basis, 3W domestic wholesales rose 49% YoY to 2.4 Lc units, led by TVS (+62%) and M&M (+28%). The domestic PV industry posted a ~6% YoY growth to ~31.03 Lc units, driven by strong performance from Toyota Kirloskar (+23%), M&M (+18%), JSW MG Motor (+17%), Kia India (+15%), Tata Motors (+6%), and Maruti Suzuki (+4%). However, Hyundai declined 6% YoY. Domestic CV volumes increased 9% YTD to 7.2 Lc units, indicating a strong performance, supported by positive freight demand. Domestic tractor (Exhibit 2) sales rose 21%, driven by strong growth from M&M (+21%), VST (+43%), and Escorts (+13%). The overall industry outlook remains optimistic, with gradual demand recovery, a reduction in the GST rate, and income tax relief as key factors driving demand in FY26.
2W/3W Wholesale Nos: In Dec’25, 2W OEM sales improved, led by Eicher Motors (+37% YoY), Hero (+43%) and TVS (+54% YoY) while Bajaj is yet to release its report. Exports momentum remained strong, driven by Hero and TVS. Going ahead, potential upside triggers for domestic demand include (i) government-led consumption measures (Income Tax relief/ GST reduction), (ii) a rural demand uptick, and (iii) New model launches. The three-wheeler (3W) segment posted a strong growth of 80% YoY but declined 8% MoM, with TVS (+110% YoY), and M&M (+31% YoY).
PV Wholesale Nos: In Dec’25, domestic PV sales rose ~27% YoY but remained Flat MoM, driven by the marriage season and GST reductions. Toyota Kirloskar registered the highest growth at 23%, followed by M&M (+18% YoY), JSW MG Motor (+17% YoY), Kia India (+15% YoY), Tata Motors (+6%), and Maruti Suzuki (+4%). On the other hand, Hyundai wholesale declined 6% YoY, respectively. Looking ahead in Q4FY26/FY27, we remain cautiously positive and expect industry volumes to grow in high single digits, supported by a reduction in GST rate and improving affordability for consumers.
CV Wholesale Nos: Our proxy for CV domestic dispatches witnessed a 26% YoY growth and 16% MoM growth in domestic volumes; Maruti and M&M witnessed the highest growth of 46% and 27% YoY, respectively. Ashok Leyland and VECV posted the surge of 26% YoY each, respectively, followed by Tata Motors (+24%). We expect high-single-digit industry growth in FY26 for CV players, driven by growing demand in the Bus segment.
Growing Volumes in the Tractor Industry: Our proxy for the tractor segment saw volume growth of 36% YoY but declined 28% MoM, supported by favourable monsoons and high reservoir levels. M&M volume surged by 37% YoY, followed by Escorts (+36% YoY) and VST Tillers (+26% YoY). Looking ahead into Q4FY26, we expect the positive momentum to continue, driven by GST reductions, enhanced reservoir levels, robust rabi sowing, and improved kharif harvest.
In the long term, we prefer TVS Motors in 2Ws (Eicher seems fully valued at CMP); M&M (non-coverage) as a play in the PV/LCV/tractor segment, followed by Maruti in PVs. We also like Ashok Leyland in the CV space, followed by a close watch on Eicher (VECV) for any market share gains.
2W/3W Segment
* TVS Motors’ total 2W sales in Dec’25 were up ~48% YoY but fell 7% MoM; 3W sales grew 110% YoY but dwon 7% MoM. Exports rose 40% YoY but fell 2% MoM.
* Hero MotoCorp: Total 2W sales in Dec’25 were up 41% YoY but down by 25% MoM.
* RE total sales were up 30% YoY and 3% MoM; Exports degrew 10% YoY but surged ~1% MoM.
PV & CV Segment
* Maruti Suzuki’s total direct domestic sales in Dec’25 surged by 36% YoY and 5%
* MoM; The total CV sales improved 46% YoY but fell 3% MoM. M&M’s PV division reported growth of 23% YoY but fell 10% MoM. LCV sales were up 27% YoY but remained flat MoM.
* Tata Motors’ total PV sales rose 14% YoY but were down 12% MoM; CV sales were up 24% YoY and 22% MoM.
* Ashok Leyland's total sales were up 26% YoY and 20% MoM.
* Eicher Motors’ (VECV) total CV sales rose 26% YoY and 42% MoM.
Tractor Segment
* M&M’s total tractor sales were up 37% YoY but down 29% MoM.
* Escorts Kubota Limited tractor sales increased 36% YoY but declined 33% MoM.
* VST Tillers & Tractors sales surged 26% YoY but down 19% MoM.
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