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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a slight decline in natural gas production for 2024, dropping to 103.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) from 2023's record 103.8 bcfd. However, demand is projected to reach an all-time high of 90.1 bcfd in 2024, marking the fourth consecutive year of growth. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are expected to rise, hitting 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and 13.8 bcfd in 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. coal production will decline sharply, reaching its lowest level since 1964. Carbon dioxide emissions are forecasted to ease slightly in 2024 as fossil fuel consumption, particularly oil and coal, decreases.

Key Highlights

* US natural gas output to drop to 103.5 bcfd in 2024.

* Demand forecasted to rise to a record 90.1 bcfd in 2024.

* LNG exports to hit 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and 13.8 bcfd in 2025.

* US coal production to hit its lowest level since 1964 by 2024.

* CO2 emissions from fossil fuels projected to decrease in 2024.

U.S. natural gas production is projected to decline slightly in 2024, according to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Production, which is expected to drop to 103.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) from a record 103.8 bcfd in 2023, is driven by a reduction in drilling activities. This comes after natural gas prices at the Henry Hub reached a 32-year low earlier in 2023, leading producers to cut back. However, output is anticipated to rebound to 104.6 bcfd by 2025.

Despite the slight drop in production, U.S. natural gas demand is expected to rise to a record high of 90.1 bcfd in 2024, up from 89.1 bcfd in 2023. This marks the fourth consecutive year of demand growth, driven by increased consumption in various sectors. EIA's forecasts for natural gas demand and supply in 2024 are both higher than previously expected.

In addition to domestic demand, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are set to reach new highs, with 12.1 bcfd projected in 2024 and 13.8 bcfd in 2025, surpassing the record 11.9 bcfd exported in 2023. Meanwhile, U.S. coal production is forecast to decline sharply to 510 million short tons in 2024, marking its lowest level since 1964, as gas and renewable energy sources continue to displace coal-fired plants.

In terms of environmental impact, the EIA projects a slight decrease in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2024, with total emissions expected to fall to 4.777 billion metric tons, driven by reduced oil and coal usage.

Finally

Natural gas demand will continue to rise in 2024, despite a slight production decline, driven by strong consumption and increased LNG exports.

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