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Global sugar production in 2025/26 is projected to rise sharply to 189.3 million tons, led by strong output growth in Brazil and India, more than offsetting lower European Union production. Improved weather conditions, higher planted area, and better yields are driving the rebound, particularly after El Niño disruptions. Global exports are expected to increase, supported by higher shipments from Brazil, India, and Thailand, while EU exports decline. Ending stocks are forecast to rise, mainly due to accumulation in India and China. The outlook reflects easing supply tightness, although regional production and trade dynamics remain uneven.

Key Highlights

* Global sugar production seen up 8.3 million tons in 2025/26.

* Brazil and India gains offset lower European Union output.

* Global exports rise despite reduced EU shipments.

* Ending stocks increase, led by India and China.

* Thailand exports rebound while EU beet area declines.

Global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is forecast to increase by 8.3 million tons year over year to 189.3 million tons, driven primarily by higher output in Brazil and India. Improved weather conditions and better yields in key producing regions are expected to outweigh a decline in European Union production, easing global supply concerns seen in recent seasons.

Brazil’s sugar production is forecast to rise by 700,000 tons to 44.4 million tons, supported by favorable weather and improved sugar recovery. The production mix is expected to tilt slightly toward sugar, with 51 percent allocated to sugar and 49 percent to ethanol. Stable domestic consumption and higher output are set to lift exports, reinforcing Brazil’s role as the world’s largest supplier.

India is projected to record one of the sharpest recoveries, with production estimated to jump 26 percent to 35.3 million tons. The rebound reflects improved monsoon conditions, increased planting area, and higher yields following El Niño-related disruptions last year. Consumption is expected to rise alongside food service demand, while exports and ending stocks increase due to surplus availability.

In contrast, European Union sugar production is forecast to fall 5 percent to 15.5 million tons as sugar beet area declines by 8 percent, particularly in major producers such as France and Germany. Lower output is expected to boost imports and curb exports, while consumption and stocks remain broadly stable.

Thailand’s production is forecast to increase 2 percent to 10.3 million tons on higher cane output and yields. With consumption flat, exports are expected to rebound to 7.0 million tons, drawing down domestic stocks.

Finally, the 2025/26 sugar outlook points to improved global availability, with strong recoveries in Brazil and India easing supply tightness despite production declines in the European Union.

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